• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.211-232
• /
• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.167-198
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.849-861
• /
• 2015

As the rise in popularity of online games, the users start exchanging rare items for real money. As RMT (Real Money Trade) is prevalent, GFG (Gold Farming Group) who abuse RMT shows up. GFG causes social problems such as identity theft, privacy leaks. Because they needs many bot characters to gather game items. In addition, GFG induce RMT that makes in-game problems such as a destroying game economy, account hacking. Therefore, It is very important work to collapse GFG at the perspective of social and in-game. In this paper, we proposed a fundamental method for detecting RMT buyers for the collapse of GFG at the perspective of buyer by Law of Demand and Supply. We found two type of RMT by analyzing actual game data and detected RMT buyers with high recall ratio of 98% by ruled-based detection.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.53-68
• /
• 2022

It has great significance to estimate CIF-FOB margins of international trade. It certainly helps develop statistics on transport costs of international trade and provides basic data for econometric analysis of transport costs. It also contributes much to our standing the correlation between the margins and trade partners' geographical distance as well as one between the margins and trading products. However, the quality issue of international trade statistics renders it very difficult to derive trustworthy CIF-FOB margin estimates. Utilizing various analytical approaches, this study intended to acquire credible estimates of CIF-FOB margins for Korea's total imports and for country/product specific imports data. Major findings are as follows. First, the average of CIF-FOB margins of Korea's total imports is 7.3% and is generally declining. Second, country level analysis provides credible estimates for CIF-FOB margins of Korea's imports from four partners (Japan, the US, Australia, and Brazil). The differences in margins among these four countries are caused by geographical distance and characteristics of traded products. Third, product level analysis reveals that the margins of gold and passenger vehicles are fairly low while those of primary products tend to be high.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.13-32
• /
• 2018

Btcoin has made a big progress through anonymity, decentralized authority, sharing economy, multi-ledger book-keeping, block-technology and the convenient financial vehicle. Bitcoin has the characteristics of mining and supply by decentralized suppliers, limited supply quantity and the partial money-like function as well as gold. The paper studies the hedge and safe-haven of Bitcoin and gold on daily frequency data over the period of July 20, 2010-Dec. 27, 2017 employing Asymmetric Vector GARCH. It finds that gold has the hedge and safe-haven against inflation and capital markets while Bitcoin has the weak hedge and the weak safe-haven. It shows insignificant effects of inflations of US and Korea on the volatilities of Bitcoin and gold. It also suggests the necessity of clearing of vagueness behind the anonymity for fair and transparent trade through the law application in the absence or fault in law (Lucken im Recht). following the spirit of the living constitution (lebendige gutes Recht oder Vorschrift). The relevant institutions are hoped to be given some of obligations such as registration, minimum required capital. report, disclosure, explanation, compliance and governance with autonomous corresponding rights. The study also suggests the reestablishment of the relevant financial law and taxation law. The hedge would not be successfully accomplished without the vigilant cautions of investors.

• Acta Via Serica
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.95-124
• /
• 2023

Over the past 30 years, intense archaeological research has revealed a great increase in regional and transregional object mobility across the South China Sea during its Iron Age (500 BCE to 500 CE). Some objects had moved from a long distance: intaglios, seals, fine ceramic, glass containers, and gold coins of Mediterranean origin; and large bronzes, mirrors, and lacquerware connected to central East Asia. This evidence has given rise to larger-scale explanations, among which the most prominent has been the growth of (maritime) Silk Road trade. Scholars are divided as to whether the Silk Road is a suitable concept, with some emphasizing its orientalist overtones and colonial baggage and others finding it useful for the investigation of interregional networks trading in silk and other commodities. This paper explores how productive the Silk Road concept or metaphor really is for understanding transregional connectivity and social change in Iron Age Southeast Asia.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.125-134
• /
• 2007

There have been many researches on the characteristics of item trade. However, most researches were done by carrying out a survey and there has been few researches by analyzing the economy in online games. So, this article studied the cause of item trade by looking into the supply and demand of items in online games. The results shows that item trade is taking place mostly among only a few number of gamers who enjoy enchanting and who engage in castle sieges and blood pledge battles. The proportion of item trade by general garners is not so big. And major item providers are gold farms, not garners. Therefore, item trade is mostly carried out by a large number of garners who trade a small amount of sum and by a small number of heavy garners who trade large amount of sum. Understanding this characteristic of item trade would be a good ground for reviewing the policies and social effect regarding item trades.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.171-179
• /
• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• Acta Via Serica
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.53-78
• /
• 2023

The paper presents some new results illustrating some developments related to the concept of the Silk Road and subsequent methodological reflections. New laboratory results of scientific analyses of plants, minerals, and human remains in combination with more conventional methods of research contribute to a better understanding of the multidirectionality of exchanges in Pre- and Protohistory. Unsuspected long-distance transfers of items, especially of metals (tin) and biological materials (plants, pathogens, etc.) are discovered. Adding ancient DNA and petroglyphs to the vexed question of the Indo-European migrations across Eurasia complexifies the familiar linguistic, historical, and archaeological research landscape. Recent excavations show the impact of the adoption of artistic elements adapted from the Achaemenid arts, far in the steppe world, and up to China. Multidirectional (including North-South lanes) and multidisciplinary approaches leave space and hope for more rigorous scientific modelizations for the archaeology of Eurasia and the Silk Road.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
• /
• v.11 no.6
• /
• pp.826-834
• /
• 2003

This research is to reveal an aspect of costume culture and a phase of the cloths in the relationship of the Chosun dynasty, by considering the exported goods from the Chosun dynasty of the trading goods derived by the trade diplomacy between the two countries in the Chosun dynasty-Japan relationship in the 15th and 16th. The research findings, by analyzing various literatures and related documents, follow. The research results are as follow. The exchange was the form of presenting a return present in return for a tribute to the Chosun dynasty from the Japanese envoy, which has a polycentric characteristic. Pusanpo, Naipo, and Yumpo were designated as the open ports, which played a pivotal role in the Korea-Japan exchange. The imported goods were somok, peppers, drug-stuffs, gold, bronze, sulfur, etc. The exported goods were books and cloths, such as hemp cloths, cotton cloths, silk, etc. The majority of exported goods was cloths, particularly cotton cloths. Meanwhile, in the 15th and the 16th century, with expanding of active trade towards Japan, the amount of export increased rapidly. As a result of the increase of exporting cotton cloths, the raw cottons production was increased and cotton cloth manufacturing was developed. However, it also expanded a dual structure of cotton cloths between the cotton cloths for exports and the cotton cloths for domestic markets. This dual structure of cotton cloth was lead to the deterioration of cotton cloths and had an effect on the price increases of domestic markets.