• 제목/요약/키워드: generalized distribution series

검색결과 65건 처리시간 0.03초

우리나라 연최대강우량의 지형학적 특성 및 이에 근거한 최적확률밀도함수의 산정 (Geographical Impact on the Annual Maximum Rainfall in Korean Peninsula and Determination of the Optimal Probability Density Function)

  • 남윤수;김동균
    • 한국습지학회지
    • /
    • 제17권3호
    • /
    • pp.251-263
    • /
    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 L-moment ratio diagram 기법과 지형정보시스템(GIS)을 동시에 활용하여 우리나라의 지속기간별 연 최대강우량의 최적확률밀도함수를 판별하는 새로운 기법을 제안하고, 결과 도출과정에 있어 발견된 연최대강우량의 통계값의 흥미로운 지형학적 특성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 우리나라 기상청에서 운영하는 67개의 강우관측지점에서 관측된 강우자료의 연최대강우량을 1시간, 3시간, 6시간, 12시간, 24시간 누적시간에 대하여 산출하고, L-moment ratio diagram 기법을 활용하여 이들에 대한 최적확률밀도함수를 구한 후, 이를 관측지점에 해당하는 티센 다각형에 다른 색상으로 표현하여 그 공간적 분포를 살펴보았다. 또한, 각 후보 확률밀도함수의 적합도에 대한 지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다: (1) 강우의 극한값의 특성을 대표할 수 있는 통계값인 L-skewness와 L-kurtosis는 뚜렷한 공간적 경향을 띠고 있다. 특히 산맥을 포함한 우리나라의 지형적 특성에 큰 영향을 받았다. 이는 발생빈도가 높고 강도가 낮은 평상시의 강우사상뿐 만 아니라, 연최대강우량 또한 지형의 영향을 크게 받는다는 것을 의미한다; (2) 우리나라의 산악지역에서는 연최대강우량의 통계적 특성에 대한 고도의 영향이 비산악지역보다 더 크며, 고도가 높은 지역일수록 발생 빈도가 낮고 강도가 강한 강우사상이 더 자주 발생하며, 강우의 누적기간이 증가할수록 이러한 경향은 작아졌다; (3) 우리나라의 연최대강우량을 가장 잘 대변할 수 있는 확률밀도함수는 Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) 분포와 Generalized Logistic (GLO) 분포이다. 단, 남해안의 중앙지역에 대해서는 Generalized Pareto (GPA) 분포가 가장 적합한 것으로 나타났다.

GPD 모형 및 선형회귀분석을 이용한 산악형 강수 해석 (Orographic Precipitation Analysis with GPD Model and Linear Regression)

  • 엄명진;윤혜선;조원철;허준행
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.1053-1057
    • /
    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 산악형 강수 해석을 위해 제주도내 강우관측 자료를 이용하여 확률강우량 산정 및 고도와의 선형회귀분석을 수행하였다. 제주도내 강우관측 자료는 기상관서 4개소 및 AWS(Automatic Weather System, 자동기상관측소) 13개소의 자료를 활용하였다. 확률강우량 산정시 AWS 강우관측 자료는 AMS(Annual Maximum Series, 연 최대치 계열) 모형을 적용하기에는 자료기간이 충분하지 않으므로 짧은 자료기간에 적합한 PDS(Partial Duration Series, 부분 기간치 계열) 모형을 적용하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 PDS의 대표적인 분포형인 GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution)를 적용하여 지속시간별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 산정된 지속시간별 확률강우량과 고도와의 관계를 확인하기 위하여 선형회귀분석을 수행하였다. 회귀분석 결과 확률강우량은 고도가 증가함에 따라 선형적으로 증가하였다. 또한, 재현기간이 길어질수록 고도에 따른 확률강우량 증가율도 증가하였다. 다만, 재현기간과 관계없이 지속시간이 짧을 경우 확률강우량과 고도와의 선형 관계는 약해지는 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF

A STOCHASTIC EVALUATION OF ACTUAL SOUND ENVIRONMENT BASED ON TWO TYPE INFORMATION PROCESSING METHODS--THE USE OF EXPANSION SERIES TYPE REGRESSION AND FUZZY PROBABILITY

  • Ikuta, Akira;Ohta, Mitsuo
    • 한국음향학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국음향학회 1994년도 FIFTH WESTERN PACIFIC REGIONAL ACOUSTICS CONFERENCE SEOUL KOREA
    • /
    • pp.698-703
    • /
    • 1994
  • In the actual sound environment, the random signal often shows a complex fluctuation pattern apart from a standard Gaussian distribution. In this study, an evaluation method for the sound environmnetal system is proposed in the generalized form applicable to the actual stochastic phenomena, by introducing two type information processing methods based on the regression model of expansion series type and the Fuzzy probability. The effectiveness of the proposed method are confirmed experimentally too by applying it to the observed data in the actual noise environment.

  • PDF

Vibration analysis of FG porous rectangular plates reinforced by graphene platelets

  • Zhou, Changlin;Zhang, Zhongxian;Zhang, Ji;Fang, Yuan;Tahouneh, Vahid
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • 제34권2호
    • /
    • pp.215-226
    • /
    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to investigate free vibration of functionally graded porous nanocomposite rectangular plates where the internal pores and graphene platelets (GPLs) are distributed in the matrix either uniformly or non-uniformly according to three different patterns. The elastic properties of the nanocomposite are obtained by employing Halpin-Tsai micromechanics model. The GPL-reinforced plate is modeled using a semi-analytic approach composed of generalized differential quadrature method (GDQM) and series solution adopted to solve the equations of motion. The proposed rectangular plates have two opposite edges simply supported, while all possible combinations of free, simply supported and clamped boundary conditions are applied to the other two edges. The 2-D differential quadrature method as an efficient and accurate numerical tool is used to discretize the governing equations and to implement the boundary conditions. The convergence of the method is demonstrated and to validate the results, comparisons are made between the present results and those reported by well-known references for special cases treated before, have confirmed accuracy and efficiency of the present approach. New results reveal the importance of porosity coefficient, porosity distribution, graphene platelets (GPLs) distribution, geometrical and boundary conditions on vibration behavior of porous nanocomposite plates. It is observed that the maximum vibration frequency obtained in the case of symmetric porosity and GPL distribution, while the minimum vibration frequency is obtained using uniform porosity distribution.

L 및 LH-모멘트법과 지역빈도분석에 의한 가뭄우량의 추정 (II)- LH-모멘트법을 중심으로 - (Estimation of Drought Rainfall by Regional Frequency Analysis Using L and LH-Moments (II) - On the method of LH-moments -)

  • 이순혁;윤성수;맹승진;류경식;주호길;박진선
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제46권5호
    • /
    • pp.27-39
    • /
    • 2004
  • In the first part of this study, five homogeneous regions in view of topographical and geographically homogeneous aspects except Jeju and Ulreung islands in Korea were accomplished by K-means clustering method. A total of 57 rain gauges were used for the regional frequency analysis with minimum rainfall series for the consecutive durations. Generalized Extreme Value distribution was confirmed as an optimal one among applied distributions. Drought rainfalls following the return periods were estimated by at-site and regional frequency analysis using L-moments method. It was confirmed that the design drought rainfalls estimated by the regional frequency analysis were shown to be more appropriate than those by the at-site frequency analysis. In the second part of this study, LH-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions were accomplished to get optimal probability distribution. Design drought rainfalls were estimated by both at-site and regional frequency analysis using LH-moments and GEV distribution, which was confirmed as an optimal one among applied distributions. Design rainfalls were estimated by at-site and regional frequency analysis using LH-moments, the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlotechniques. Design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments (LH-moments) method have shown higher reliability than those of at-site frequency analysis in view of RRMSE (Relative Root-Mean-Square Error), RBIAS (Relative Bias) and RR (Relative Reduction) for the estimated design drought rainfalls. Relative efficiency were calculated for the judgment of relative merits and demerits for the design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments and L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments applied in the first report and second report of this study, respectively. Consequently, design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments were shown as more reliable than those using LH-moments. Finally, design drought rainfalls for the classified five homogeneous regions following the various consecutive durations were derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments, which was confirmed as a more reliable method through this study. Maps for the design drought rainfalls for the classified five homogeneous regions following the various consecutive durations were accomplished by the method of inverse distance weight and Arc-View, which is one of GIS techniques.

고차확률가중모멘트에 의한 극치강우의 빈도분석 (Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall using Higher Probability Weighted Moments)

  • 이순혁;맹승진;류경식;김병준
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국농공학회 2003년도 학술발표논문집
    • /
    • pp.511-514
    • /
    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design rainfall by the determination of best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments of the annual maximum series according to consecutive duration at sixty-five rainfall stations in Korea. Design rainfalls were obtained by generalized extreme value distribution which was selected to be suitable distribution in 4 applied distributions and by L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment. The best fitting order for Higher Probability Weighted Moments was determined with the confidence analysis of estimated design rainfall.

  • PDF

Response of dynamic interlaminar stresses in laminated plates under free vibration and thermal load

  • Zhu, S.Q.;Chen, X.;Wang, X.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제25권6호
    • /
    • pp.753-765
    • /
    • 2007
  • The response histories and distribution of dynamic interlaminar stresses in composite laminated plates under free vibration and thermal load is studied based on a thermoelastodynamic differential equations. The stacking sequence of the laminated plates may be arbitrary. The temperature change is considered as a linear function of coordinates in planes of each layer. The dynamic mode of displacements is considered as triangle series. The in-plane stresses are calculated by using geometric equations and generalized Hooke's law. The interlaminar stresses are evaluated by integrating the 3-D equations of equilibrium, and utilizing given boundary conditions and continuity conditions of stresses between layers. The response histories and distribution of interlaminar stress under thermal load are presented for various vibration modes and stacking sequence. The theoretical analyses and results are of certain significance in practical engineering application.

한국의 미세먼지 시계열 분석: 장기종속 시계열 혹은 비정상 평균변화모형? (Time Series Modelling of Air Quality in Korea: Long Range Dependence or Changes in Mean?)

  • 백창룡
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제26권6호
    • /
    • pp.987-998
    • /
    • 2013
  • 이 논문에서는 한국의 대기질을 결정하는 중요한 수치인 미세먼지(PM10)에 대한 통계적 고찰을 한다. 2011년 매시 관찰된 자료 분석을 토대로 미세먼지가 매우 높은 시차에서도 강한 양의 상관관계를 가지는 장기 종속 시계열의 특징을 보임을 밝힌다. 또한 주변분포는 꼬리가 두터운 모형으로서 로그-정규분포보다는 일반화 파레토 분포가 훨씬 더 자료를 잘 적합함을 보인다. 하지만 이러한 높은 상관관계는 종종 단순한 평균변화 모형에 의한 그럴듯싸한 가짜 효과에 기인하기도 하여 통계모형을 세우는데 많은 혼동을 준다. 따라서 이 논문에서는 강한 종속성이 장기 종속 시계열에 의한 것인지 아니면 비정상 평균변화에 의한 것인지 근본적인 물리적 모형에 대한 논의를 통계적인 가설 검정을 통해 살펴본다. 그 결과 미세먼지의 강한 종속성은 구조변화에의한 착시 효과임을 밝힌다.

L-모멘트 및 LH-모멘트 기법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도(II)-LH-모멘트법을 중심으로 (Derivatio of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments and LH-Moments(II) - On the method of LH-Moments -)

  • 이순혁
    • 한국농공학회지
    • /
    • 제41권3호
    • /
    • pp.41-50
    • /
    • 1999
  • Derivatio of reasonable design floods was attempted by comparative analysis of design floods derived by Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution using methods of L-moments and LH-moments for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong. Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems, LH-coefficient of variation, LH-skewness and Lh-kurtosis were calcualted by KH-moment ration respectively. Paramenters were estimated by the Method of LH-Moments, Design floods obtained by Method of LH-Moments using different methods for plotting positionsi n GEV distribution and design floods were compared with those obtained using the Method of L-Moments by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments and LH-Moments using Cunnane plotting position formula in the GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by methods of L-moments and LH-moments using the other formula for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors. In viewpoint of the fact that hydrqulic structures including dams and levees are genrally using design floods with the return period of two hundred years or so, design floods derived by LH-Moments are seemed to be more reasonable than those of L-Moments in the GEV distribution.

  • PDF

On static bending of multilayered carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates

  • Daikh, Ahmed Amine;Bensaid, Ismail;Bachiri, Attia;Houari, Mohamed Sid Ahmed;Tounsi, Abdelouahed;Merzouki, Tarek
    • Computers and Concrete
    • /
    • 제26권2호
    • /
    • pp.137-150
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, the bending behavior of single-walled carbon nanotube-reinforced composite (CNTRC) laminated plates is studied using various shear deformation plate theories. Several types of reinforcement material distributions, a uniform distribution (UD) and three functionally graded distributions (FG), are inspected. A generalized higher-order deformation plate theory is utilized to derive the field equations of the CNTRC laminated plates where an analytical technique based on Navier's series is utilized to solve the static problem for simply-supported boundary conditions. A detailed numerical analysis is carried out to examine the influence of carbon nanotube volume fraction, laminated composite structure, side-to-thickness, and aspect ratios on stresses and deflection of the CNTRC laminated plates.