• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

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DEVELOPMENT OF A LYMAN-α IMAGING SOLAR TELESCOPE FOR THE SATELLITE (인공위성 탑재용 자외선 태양카메라(LIST) 개발)

  • Jang, M.;Oh, H.S.;Rim, C.S.;Park, J.S.;Kim, J.S.;Son, D.;Lee, H.S.;Kim, S.J.;Lee, D.H.;Kim, S.S.;Kim, K.H.
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.329-352
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    • 2005
  • Long term observations of full-disk Lyman-o irradiance have been made by the instruments on various satellites. In addition, several sounding rockets dating back to the 1950s and up through the present have measured the $Lyman-{\alpha}$ irradiance. Previous full disk $Lyman-{\alpha}$ images of the sun have been very interesting and useful scientifically, but have been only five-minute 'snapshots' obtained on sounding rocket flights. All of these observations to date have been snapshots, with no time resolution to observe changes in the chromospheric structure as a result of the evolving magnetic field, and its effect on the Lyman-o intensity. The $Lyman-{\alpha}$ Imaging Solar Telescope(LIST) can provide a unique opportunity for the study of the sun in the $Lyman-{\alpha}$ region with the high time and spatial resolution for the first time. Up to the 2nd year development, the preliminary design of the optics, mechanical structure and electronics system has been completed. Also the mechanical structure analysis, thermal analysis were performed and the material for the structure was chosen as a result of these analyses. And the test plan and the verification matrix were decided. The operation systems, technical and scientific operation, were studied and finally decided. Those are the technical operation, mechanical working modes for the observation and safety, the scientific operation and the process of the acquired data. The basic techniques acquired through the development of satellite based solar telescope are essential for the construction of space environment forecast system in the future. The techniques which we developed through this study, like mechanical, optical and data processing techniques, could be applied extensively not only to the process of the future production of flight models of this kind, but also to the related industries. Also, we can utilize the scientific achievements which are obtained throughout the project And these can be utilized to build a high resolution photometric detectors for military and commercial purposes. It is also believed that we will be able to apply several acquired techniques for the development of the Korean satellite projects in the future.

An Analysis of Hydraulic Effect due to the Outflow of Paldang Dam at Hangang Parks (팔당댐 방류량에 따른 한강 시민공원의 수리학적 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon;Kwak, Chang-Jae;Lee, Sang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2008
  • Hangang Parks have been played an important role as the source of various Civilian activities by providing a natural space near Han River ever since it was developed. Due to the local-heavy rain caused by recent climate change, the Hangang Parks tends to be easily overflowed. Evacuation of the park in emergency and its controlled system should be made for the sake of Civilian's safety. In this study, various basic data and several parameters were analyzed to simulate the hydraulic effect of Hangang Parks based on the outflow in $P1/4{\div}1/4^3$ Dam. Rising effects of flood water level were investigated through the one-dimensional and twodimensional numerical hydraulic models. Relationships of water level and travel time of flood between key station and centeral part of each park were also identified. It can be used to forecast the future flood water level of each individual park in Hangang Parks. Obtained results can be used to establish the rational plan of usage, management, citizen's safety, and emergency action plan of the Hangang Parks as the flood is occurred from the outflow of Paldang dam.

The Evaluation of Location Decision Factors of Environmental Foundation Facilities using Environmental Geographic Information System (환경지리정보시스템을 이용한 환경기초시설의 입지 결정요인 평가)

  • Cho, Deok-Ho;Bae, Min-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this research is to select an appropriate location of water pollution prevention facilities(WPPF) through evaluating location decision factor using environmental geographic information system. To do that, this research reviewed the current location policies of WPPFs and its related researches. And this paper builds water pollutant statistical databases, integrated them with the geographic information system of the administrative areas where water pollutants are generated, and gears it with statistical programs such as correlation and regression analysis in order to figure out the pollution factors which influence on the location decision of WPPF on the real time base. The volume of discharge of industrial wastewater is one of the most important water pollutants on the location decision of WPPF. And the number of industrial facilities also was the most important location decision factor in constructing the WPPFs. In addition, this paper noted that the number of population in each area makes a role to restraint the construction of WPPF. It identified that the disposal facility in Nackdong river upper-middle watersheds was insufficient in treating the livestock pollutants. Therefore, Gyeongbuk should concentrate on the construction of disposal facilities of livestock pollutant in these areas. The results of this research will contribute to decide what kinds of WPPF should be constructed on which watershed in Nackdong River, and to forecast the future water quality of each watershed.

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A Study on the Change of Built-up Areas using Remote Sensing Data (원격탐사 자료를 활용한 시가화지역의 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yoon-Soo;Jung, Eung-Ho;Ryu, Ji-Won;Kim, Dae-Wuk
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to analyze time series landuse pattern of urban areas and the change of the areas by using remotely sensed multiple sensors. The results were as follows. First, according to the result of time series analysis, most agricultural land has been changed into built-up areas by development work such as the land development or land readjustment project, arrangement of science parks or military facilities, and location of public establishment like government buildings. Second, if the expansion of built-up areas maintains the present scale and speed, it seems that a lot of parts of land would be changed into built-up areas, especially centering around agricultural land, so it is necessary to establish the plan for urban space. Third, I have synthetically collected the data of the project of urban development and systematically monitored the process of in expansion the built-up areas up to now (from the past). I hereby could lay the foundation that makes us scientifically forecast the direction of expansion in the built-up areas by the urban development in the future.

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Species Diversity Analysis of Mushrooms Collected in Mt. Chiak

  • Lee, Byung-Kook;Kim, Kyoung Su;Eom, Ki-Cheol;Seok, Soon-Ja
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2014.05a
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    • pp.19-19
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    • 2014
  • This study included the analysis of mushroom data collected from Mt. Chiak in Gangwon-do using various methods. Former studies of Korean mushrooms are limited by regional characters and there is less species diversity among the regions. This study tried to find a way for the forecast of mushroom distribution and appearance by indexes of species diversity. The indexes used in this study include the number of fungi (N), the number of species (S), similarity index (C), richness index (R1, R2), variety index (V1, V2), evenness index (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5), and dominance index (D1) to analyze variety of species diversity. Analyses of data of fungi using a multistage cluster sampling indicate that the average value of C for years was higher than the average value of C for areas. The mushrooms consisted of 208 species in 686 individuals in limited fungal collection from 2002 to 2003. One hundred thirty nine species in 393 individuals were collected in 2002, and 122 species 293 individuals were collected in 2003. The individuals collected in 2003 were smaller than 2002's individuals. Similarity, richness, and variety indexes' values of 2003 were reduced than 2002's values but dominance index of 2003 was increased than 2002's value. Generally the species diversity of the environment to evaluate the index of similarity, richness, and variety was a higher index; dominance index was lower than that of the surrounding environment, suggesting a good diversity. As a result, the occurrence of mushrooms in the surrounding environment and the various factors seem fell in 2002 compared to 2003. The majority genus of the limited fungal collection was Mycena genus in 63 individuals; the majority species was Laccaria laccata in 34 individuals. Ninety three species in 106 individuals were collected by the extended collection and the majority genus of the extended collection was Amanita genus in 17 individuals; the majority species was Amanita citrina (Schaeff.) Pers. which was found in 5 individuals. This demonstrates that periodical similarity's value was 0.159 is higher than special similarity's 0.119. This indicates that the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the same area in following year is higher than the probability of the appearance of same mushrooms in the surrounding area in same year. The value of coefficient of variation (CV), in which the amount of change is much or less by N is higher than the CV value by S. CV value of dominance index(D) was the highest r point among other indexes, and evenness index (E) was the lowest point among other indexes. The correlation matrix with 66 combinations between the indexes, the combinations with correlations was 46 combinations. These results revealed that indexes of R1, V2, and E1 were proper to represent species diversity of fungi based on the correlation matrix and the theory of statistical independence which means there is no or less mutual association. This research would contribute to the study about variable living creature by measuring method and in the future this would be used to figure out regulation about fungi with their correlation, values in ecosystem, develop improving new models about agricultural fungi species and numbers by investigating agricultural variable species.

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The LOS Analysis of Railway Station Facilities Based on Design Hourly Factor and Simulation (설계시간계수 및 Simulation 기반 철도역사 이용시설 LOS 분석)

  • Oh, Tae-ho;Lee, Seon-ha;Cheon, Choon-keun;Kim, Eun-ji;Yu, Byung-young
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2016
  • Recently the passenger of railway satisfaction levels are lowered. the reason why the railway station was built without considering the increased passenger due to diversification(transfer, shopping, and etc.) of the domestic railway station infrastructure. Especially, in case of KTX Gwangju-Songjeong Station, the number of its passenger has been increased about more than three times since its opening in 2015, so that there are much inconvenience generated in the station congested with passengers. his study aims to excute using Pedestrian simulation and Design Hourly Factor concepts of Highway Engineering, in order to designing the optimum area through the passenger demand forecast for each station. For this analysis was divided into the second stage. Frist, the railway passenger was calculated by using the methodology of Design Hourly Factor that is used during road design in the aspect of traffic engineering. Second, we tried to analyze the level of service in each railway station facility through the pedestrian simulation. Analytical results show that utilizing pedestrian simulation provides verification for calculation of LOS of each railway station facility. Therefore, In the future when designing railway station of facilities will be possible to suggest the facilities area based on LOS.

Development of Prediction Models for Traffic Noise Considering Traffic Environment and Road Geometry (교통환경 및 도로기하구조를 고려한 도로교통소음 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seok Jin;Park, Je Jin;Choi, Gun Soo;Ha, Tae Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.587-593
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    • 2018
  • The current road traffic noise prediction programs of Korea, which are widely used, are based upon foreign prediction model. Thus, it is necessary to verify foreign prediction models to find out whether they are suitable for the domestic road traffic environment. In addition, an analysis and an in-depth study on the main factors should be conducted in advance as the influence factors on the occurrence of traffic noise vary for each prediction model. Therefore, this study examined the influence factors and the existing prediction models used to forecast road traffic noise. Also, analyzed their relationship with the factors influencing the noise generated by driving vehicles through multiple regression analysis using a prediction model, taking into consideration of the traffic environment and the road geometric structure. In addition, this study will apply experimental values to the existing road traffic noise prediction model (NIER, RLS-90) and the deducted road traffic noise prediction model. As a result, the order of the absolute value sum of the errors are NIER, RLS-90, model value. Through comparison and verification, developed models are to be analyzed for providing basic research results for future study on road traffic noise prediction modeling.

Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Circulations with Regional Climate Model

  • Singh, G.P.;Oh, Jai-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Quaternary Association Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.24-25
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    • 2004
  • It is well known that there is an inverse relationship between the strength of Indian summer monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and extent of Eurasian snow cover/depth in the preceding season. Tibetan snow cover/depth also affects the Asian monsoon rainy season largely. The positive correlation between Tibetan sensible heat flux and southeast Asian rainfall suggest an inverse relationship between Tibetan snow cover and southeast Asian rainfall. Developments in Regional Climate Models suggest that the effect of Tibetan snow on the ISMR can be well studied by Limited Area Models (LAMs). LAMs are used for regional climate studies and operational weather forecast of several hours to 3 days in future. The Eta model developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) have been used for weather prediction as well as for the study of present-day climate and variability over different parts of the world. Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) has been widely . used for various mesoscale studies. However, it has not been tested to study the characteristics of circulation features and associated rainfall over India so far. In the present study, Regional Climate Model (RegCM-3) has been integrated from 1 st April to 30th September for the years 1993-1996 and monthly mean monsoon circulation features and rainfall simulated by the model at 55km resolution have been studied for the Indian summer monsoon season. Characteristics of wind at 850hPa and 200hPa, temperature at 500hPa, surface pressure and rainfall simulated by the model have been examined for two convective schemes such as Kuo and Grell with Arakawa-Schubert as the closure scheme, Model simulated monsoon circulation features have been compared with those of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed fields and the rainfall with those of India Meteorological Department (IMD) observational rainfall datasets, Comparisons of wind and temperature fields show that Grell scheme is closer to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, The influence of Tibetan snowdepth in spring season on the summer monsoon circulation features and subsequent rainfall over India have been examined. For such sensitivity experiment, NIMBUS-7 SMMR snowdepth data have been used as a boundary condition in the RegCM3, Model simulation indicates that ISMR is reduced by 30% when 10cm of snow has been introduced over Tibetan region in the month of previous April. The existence of Tibetan snow in RegCM3 also indicates weak lower level monsoon westerlies and upper level easterlies.

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Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Livestock Agriculture in 16 Local Administrative Districts of Korea

  • Ji, Eun-Sook;Park, Kyu-Hyun
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1768-1774
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to evaluate methane ($CH_4$) and nitrous oxide ($N_2O$) emissions from livestock agriculture in 16 local administrative districts of Korea from 1990 to 2030. National Inventory Report used 3 yr averaged livestock population but this study used 1 yr livestock population to find yearly emission fluctuations. Extrapolation of the livestock population from 1990 to 2009 was used to forecast future livestock population from 2010 to 2030. Past (yr 1990 to 2009) and forecasted (yr 2010 to 2030) averaged enteric $CH_4$ emissions and $CH_4$ and $N_2O$ emissions from manure treatment were estimated. In the section of enteric fermentation, forecasted average $CH_4$ emissions from 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 4%-114% compared to that of the past except for Daejeon (-63%), Seoul (-36%) and Gyeonggi (-7%). As for manure treatment, forecasted average $CH_4$ emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 3%-124% compared to past average except for Daejeon (-77%), Busan (-60%), Gwangju (-48%) and Seoul (-8%). For manure treatment, forecasted average $N_2O$ emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 10%-153% compared to past average $CH_4$ emissions except for Daejeon (-60%), Seoul (-4.0%), and Gwangju (-0.2%). With the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions ($CO_2$-Eq), forecasted average $CO_2$-Eq from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 31%-120% compared to past average $CH_4$ emissions except Daejeon (-65%), Seoul (-24%), Busan (-18%), Gwangju (-8%) and Gyeonggi (-1%). The decreased $CO_2$-Eq from 5 local administrative districts was only 34 kt, which was insignificantly small compared to increase of 2,809 kt from other 11 local administrative districts. Annual growth rates of enteric $CH_4$ emissions, $CH_4$ and $N_2O$ emissions from manure management in Korea from 1990 to 2009 were 1.7%, 2.6%, and 3.2%, respectively. The annual growth rate of total $CO_2$-Eq was 2.2%. Efforts by the local administrative offices to improve the accuracy of activity data are essential to improve GHG inventories. Direct measurements of GHG emissions from enteric fermentation and manure treatment systems will further enhance the accuracy of the GHG data.

Damage and Socio-Economic Impact of Volcanic Ash (화산재 양에 따른 피해와 사회 · 경제적 영향 분석)

  • Jiang, Zhuhua;Yu, Soonyoung;Yoon, Seong-Min;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.536-549
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the damages of and analyzes the social and economic impacts of volcanic ash eruptions in the world in order to estimate the potential volcanic ash impacts in South Korea when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts in the future. First, we build a comparison chart called "the impact of volcanic ash" on each economic and social sector by using major volcanic eruptions and we compare the damage with respect to volcanic ash thickness/weights. Secondly, we analyze the social and economic impact from volcanic ash. The economic damage is not likely to occur in South Korea, unless Mt. Baekdusan erupts in winter. However, the potential damage should not be overlooked because the volcanic ash may have a global impact around the world. If Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts when the wind blows from north or northeast, the volcanic ash may then significantly affect South Korea of which economy is highly dependent on exports. Particularly when the volcanic ash moves to the densely populated metropolitan areas or agricultural areas, the damage can be significant. In preparation for the potential volcanic disasters, the volcanic ash forecast table suitable for South Korea should be prepared. In addition, building a Korean volcanic ash hazard map in advance will have a strategic significance.