• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

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Economic Analysis on low Input Rice Cultivation (저투입벼 재배에 관한 경영사례분석)

  • Shin, Yong-In;Park, Joo-Sub
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.285-300
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    • 1996
  • This study is aimed to provide data of low-input rice cultivation for agricultural policy, to reveal the problems of low-input cultivation through comparing the economic result of low-input cultivation with the common one, to search for solution or mitigation of the problems of low-input cultivation, and to forecast the future prospect of low-input rice cultivation. The following were the results obtained from the survey and analysis. The working hours per 10a inputted 45.4 hours which is 32% more than 34.5 hours of common cultivation. Yield per 10a was 355kg which was 101kg less than 456kg of common cultivation. But the farm received price per kg was 1,984.9 won which was 547.9 won more than 1,436.5 won of common cultivation. Gross receipts per 10a was 704,438 won which was higher than 655,044 won of common cultivation, and management cost was 230,820 won which slightly higher than 188,157 won of common cultivation. Consequently, the income of low-input rice cultivation was 473,617 won which somewhat exceed to 466,887 won of common cultivation.

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Analysis of Web Log for e-CRM on B2B of the Make-To-Order Company (수주생산기업 B2B에서 e-CRM을 위한 웹 로그 분석)

  • Go, Jae-Moon;Seo, Jun-Yong;Kim, Woon-Sik
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.205-220
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    • 2005
  • This study presents a web log analysis model for e-CRM, which combines the on-line customer's purchasing pattern data and transaction data between companies in B2B environment of make-to-order company. With this study, the customer evaluation and the customer subdivision are available. We can forecast the estimate demands with periodical products sales records. Also, the purchasing rate per each product, the purchasing intention rate, and the purchasing rate per companies can be used as the basic data for the strategy for receiving the orders in future. These measures are used to evaluate the business strategy, the quality ability on products, the customer's demands, the benefits of customer and the customer's loyalty. And it is used to evaluate the customer's purchasing patterns, the response analysis, the customer's secession rate, the earning rate, and the customer's needs. With this, we can satisfy various customers' demands, therefore, we can multiply the company's benefits. And we presents case of the 'H' company, which has the make-to-order manufacture environment, in order to verify the effect of the proposal system.

Forecasting obesity prevalence in Korean adults for the years 2020 and 2030 by the analysis of contributing factors

  • Baik, Inkyung
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.251-257
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There are few studies that forecast the future prevalence of obesity based on the predicted prevalence model including contributing factors. The present study aimed to identify factors associated with obesity and construct forecasting models including significant contributing factors to estimate the 2020 and 2030 prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Panel data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and national statistics from the Korean Statistical Information Service were used for the analysis. The study subjects were 17,685 male and 24,899 female adults aged 19 years or older. The outcome variables were the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ${\geq}25kg/m^2$) and abdominal obesity (waist circumference ${\geq}90cm$ for men and ${\geq}85cm$ for women). Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to select significant variables from potential exposures. RESULTS: The survey year, age, marital status, job status, income status, smoking, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, psychological factors, dietary intake, and fertility rate were found to contribute to the prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity. Based on the forecasting models including these variables, the 2020 and 2030 estimates for obesity prevalence were 47% and 62% for men and 32% and 37% for women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggested an increased prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity in 2020 and 2030. Lifestyle factors were found to be significantly associated with the increasing trend in obesity prevalence and, therefore, they may require modification to prevent the rising trend.

A Methodology to Evaluate Industry Convergence Using the Patent Information : Technology Relationship analysis (특허정보를 활용한 산업융합성 평가 방법론 : 기술연관분석)

  • Kim, Jeeeun;Lee, Sungjoo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.212-221
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    • 2013
  • As the convergence among technologies is reorganizing industry sectors, it is quite important to evaluate the probability of technological convergence, and to analyze how the technologies in a certain industry sector affect the same or other industry sectors. As a result, the large number of studies have been focused on the industry convergence. However, most of them have dealt mainly with case studies or strategy and policies and few efforts have been made to study it using quantitative data. The investigation of industry convergence using quantitative data will help understand the characteristics of industry and forecast the future of the industry from an objective point of view. Therefore, this research proposes a methodology to evaluate the possibilities of industry convergence using patent data. In particular, we emphasize the possibilities of technology convergence and suggest a technology relationship matrix to evaluate the technology convergence, as an antecedent of industry convergence. The feasibility and utility of the suggested methodology was verified with a case study on the convergence of IT and BT. The research results are expected to provide a useful guideline for developing a measure of convergence.

The Comparison of Imputation Methods in Space Time Series Data with Missing Values (공간시계열모형의 결측치 추정방법 비교)

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Duck-Ki
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.263-273
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    • 2010
  • Missing values in time series can be treated as unknown parameters and estimated by maximum likelihood or as random variables and predicted by the conditional expectation of the unknown values given the data. The purpose of this study is to impute missing values which are regarded as the maximum likelihood estimator and random variable in incomplete data and to compare with two methods using ARMA and STAR model. For illustration, the Mumps data reported from the national capital region monthly over the years 2001~2009 are used, and estimate precision of missing values and forecast precision of future data are compared with two methods.

Preliminary Release Scheme by Flood Forecasting (홍수예측에 의한 예비방유 방안)

  • Sim, Myeong-Pil;Lee, Jae-Hyeong;Gwon, O-Ik
    • Water for future
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.235-248
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    • 1996
  • Apreliminary release scheme (PRS) is suggested for the operating rules during flood period to deal with conflicts between flood control and water conservation purposes. PRS can be used to decide the optimum releases, based on the forecast of an oncoming flood and flow rate at the control point downstream when comparing the variable restricted water level (VRWL) for flood control with the minimum required water level (MRWL) for conservation use. The model is applied to Chungju and Daechung reservoirs through simulations of the technique. This study illustrates the procedure to decide the time and size for preliminary releases. Also, effects of duration and magnitude of preliminary release are reviewed based on historicqal flood records. The simulation results indicate that the proposed PRS is effective for the managers to find optimal operating policies during flood period. The proposed scheme can be used with main release scheme using real-time operation on hour-to-hour basis to decide the release for a flood.

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Analysis and Forecast of Non-Stationary Monthly Steam Flow (비정상 월유량 시계열의 해석과 예측)

  • 이재형;선우중호
    • Water for future
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 1978
  • An attemption of synthesizing and forecasting of monthly river flow has been made by employing a linear stochastic difference equation model. As one of the linear stochestic difference equation model, an ARIMA Type is tested to find the suitability of the model to the monthly river flows. On the assumption of the stationary covariacne of differenced monthly river flows the model is identrfield and is evaluated so that the residuale have the minimum variance. Finally a test is performed to finld the residerals beings White noise. Monthly river flows at six stations in Han River Basin are applied for case studies. It was found that the difference operator is a good measure of forecasting the monthly river flow.

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The Prospects of Library Education in Korea (한국 도서관학 교육의 전망)

  • Um Young Ai
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.16
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this paper is to forecast the future of library education in Korea. Toward this purpose, first, the historical events of library education in the United States of America and in the United Kingdom are introduced along with the IFLA Standards for Library Schools and the Unesco's General Information Programme. Secondly, the theoretical foundations of library education are extracted from the events. Thirdly, the factors influencing library education as well as library developments are identified, and, finally, the prospects of library education are forecasted in the light of the various factors in the Korean society and the theoretical foundations. The prospects are forecasted as follows: 1. The education for information science will be incorporated in library education. 2. The number of courses related to library services and uses will be increased. 3. The students should be provided with enough hands-on experiences to be familiar with new information technology. 4. The cooperation between library schools and libraries will be reinforced. 5. The departments of library science will cooperate with other departments in the universities in order to utilize the expertise and facilities. 6. The education of graduate schools will be specialized to produce subject specialist librarians and the undergraduate education will produce public and school librarians. 7. Opportunities for continuing education will be provided more and librarians encouraged to participate in those activities. 8. Library association should actively be involved in library education as a provider of continuing education or as a liaison between library schools and libraries. 9. The courses of foundations including library history, library research and preservation of culture will never be neglected.

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Artificial Intelligent Clothing Embedded Digital Technologies

  • Lim, Ho-Sun;Lee, Duck-Weon;Shim, Woo-Sub
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.70-83
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    • 2010
  • With the rapid development of science and technology and the increased preference by consumers for high-function products, many products are being developed through the fusion of technologies in different industries. Among such fusion technologies, digital clothing which combines clothing with computer functions is being examined as a new growth item. The objectives of this study are to examine the concept, history, development, and market of intelligent clothing, in order to discuss future directions for the development of digital clothing technology. intelligent clothing (wearable computers) originated in the 1960s from the concept of separating computing equipment and attaching it to the body. This technology was studied intensively from the early 1980s and to the early 1990s. In the late 1990s, studies on wearable computers began to develop intelligent/digital clothing that was more comfortable and beneficial to users. Depending on the user and purpose, intelligent/digital clothing is now being developed and used in diverse industrial areas that include sports, medicine, military, entertainment, daily life, and business. Many experts forecast a huge growth potential for the digital textile/clothing market, and predict the fastest market growth in the field of healthcare/medicine. There exists a need to find solutions for many related technological, economic, and social issues for the steady dissemination and advancement of intelligent/digital clothing in various industries. Further, research should be continued on effective fusion technologies that reflect human sensitivity and that increase user convenience and benefits.

PRESENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF PORTS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

  • Ha, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 2002
  • The continuing pace of technological change and the trend toward larger and faster ships is evident as shipping lines compete in seeking economies of scale in the global market and ports. become increasingly reliant on sophisticated equipment. Across the Asia and Pacific region some of the worlds most modern container ships are calling at an extensive network of mainline and feeder ports. This paper shows that during the period from 1999 to 2011, Asian container trade is expected to continue to increase more rapidly than the world average, i.e., 7.2 per cent per annum compared with the world average of 6.3 per cent. It is forecast that the total volumes of international containers handled at the ports in Asia and the Pacific will increase at an average growth rate of 7,2 per cent per annum. In order to handle the anticipated port container traffic in 2011, new container berths are required in nearly every country in the Asia and the Pacific region. This will entail very significant capital investment requirements. If countries in the UNESCAP region are to position their ports to meet the challenges of the next decade, there is an urgent need to implement more robust strategies to address important issues including prioritisation of port development projects, promotion of private sector participation in ports, emphasis on productivity and preparation for intermodal integration and logistics growth.

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