• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.23-46
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this paper is to estimate effects of healthy city policies on reducing social costs. The analyses were dune at the cities, counties, and communities levels in 2009, and covered Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA). For estimation of reducing social costs, it developed a system dynamics(SD) model that analyzed causal relationships between physical inactivity rates, the number of deaths, medical expenses, and total social costs. Simulation period of SD was from 2009 to 2030. Three alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. The total estimated cost of physical inactivities from 2009 to 2030 was 31.9 trillion won from the future forecast without policies. As a result of simulations with three alternatives, there were economic benefit approximately from 119.7 billion won to 1.16 trillion won. This study contributed to better understanding the economic benefits of healthy cities that were associated with design of built environment and physical activity. It also emphasized the importance of healthy cities planning as one of national welfare polices.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.12-21
• /
• 2017

The aim of this study was to forecast the future Health Functional Food (HFF) market trends of Korea by studied about policies and market situation in Japan. The HFF is a food that is given an additional health function. In contrast with traditional foods, the HFF has unique characteristics in that it can be produced under the political regulations. The market size of the HFF was growing gradually due to the increased of an aging population and consumer need for high quality and diversified foods. The reason why the HFF market in Japan grew up earlier than other countries, Japan was the first country that institutionalized the HFF policies. Therefore, in this paper, by examining the policies and the market situation of Japan through literatures, we forecasted upcoming political and market situational changes of Korea's HFF market. We noticed that consumers needs about the HFFs which diversified, confidently ensured safety and ingredients will increase. In this regard, the government will reorganize legislation in order to increase the confidence of the safety of HFFs. In addition, the market size of domestic HFFs which are produced by major food companies will grow.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.106-114
• /
• 2012

As Incheon International Airport(IIA) is located in an island 50-km away from Seoul, various travel equipments for access are required. So far two connecting bridges are constructed funded by civilian funds. For the further bridge construction, the reduction of forecast traffic amount and the government subsidy for the civilian funds are big issues. Comparing the access traffics of IIA to those other competing airports, traffic conditions inside the airport are superior to other competing airports from the management point of view, as utilization conditions and equipment capacities are periodically monitored and evaluated to set up comprehensive countermeasures following constructing by stages. However, while the accessability to IIA is very important, as IIA is built on an island the conflicts between near-by developers and traffic facility operators make further bridge construction difficult. As improving the accessibility to an airport is not easy to achieve only by the IIA management's efforts, the central government level authorities should organize a committee with agencies concerned and analyze the characteristics of access traffic periodically to suggest reform measures for each organization concerned to implement appropriate undertakings at apt timing. For the future, central government's level empirical research on the airport accessibility for synthetic and systematic plan set-up is expected.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.9-18
• /
• 2002

Keumsan-gun is the area where there are many mobile populations as the place to be adjacent to Daejon. There is the tendency that the empty houses at Keumsan area are increasing as 1,115 houses every year as of 2001. So, this researcher examined and analyzed the actual state by grasping the present situation of empty houses centering around Keumsan-gun. And, this researcher could obtain the following conclusion as the result that this researcher progressed the study so as to present the application scheme of empty houses. As for Keumsan-gun, farming populations are more than other city and gun at Choongcheong Southern Proince Area as the area formed with mountain groups topographically. Thus, it is forecast that the appearance of empty houses will increase, as the population decrease and the residents to have migration plan will appear higher than other city and gun in the future also. Therefore, as for the superannuated empty houses that use is impossible, to service by removing will be helpful to the image uplifting of village. In addition, as for the empty houses that use is possible, the establishment of system to connect buyers by rebuilding them as garden houses and weekend houses etc. through purchase and sale and long-term lease etc. is necessary.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.584-597
• /
• 2014

This study verified the 'Hemline Index' theory by George (1926) and established a new fashion theory frame to forecast future fashion cycles of skirts by analyzing the past fashion cycle of skirts through a diachronic method. Skirt pictures from 1980-2013 (the post-industrialized period of Korea) were analyzed and representative skirt styles, the fashion cycle of skirts and relation between skirt style, length, width and stock index were identified. A total of 1496 pictures in fashion magazine published over 34 years were selected and analyzed using PASW 18.0. The results were: For 34 years, representative skirts styles were mini skirt, midi skirt and long skirt. Fashion trend cycles of skirt length decreased for 10 years and the fashion cycle showed a trend to shorten. Skirt length & stock index related negatively and skirt length & skirt width related positively. All relations revealed significant results. Finally, the 'Hemline Index' theory of George (1926) was verified. Fashion marketers can develop successful and suitable products using a fashion cycle theory based on the results of this study.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.29-41
• /
• 2008

In the mobile communication service market, this study represents an attempt to forecast the subscribers of the IMT-2000 service market using the questionnaire of experts which is the qualitative technique is used. In this study, by using the substitution model of next generations among products in order to analyze the IMT-2000 demand of service, a demand was predicted. And by estimating the market demand prospect in which it becomes the important factor of the IMT-2000 service diffusion according to each bandwidth frequency the politically necessary approaching direction about the frequency was presented. It will be able to become the important part to not only the business carrier but also the policy maker to examine a prospect toward the subscriber of the IMT-2000 service. As a result, the market demand was exposed to be most big when the SKT 800MHz, and the KTF 800(900)MHz were used as the additional frequency. And it was likely to reach to the IMT-2000 number of subscribers to about 35.750 thousand peoples in the future at 2015.

• Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.175-183
• /
• 2011

The climate of the $21^{st}$ century is likely to be significantly different from that of the 20th century because of human-induced climate change. An extreme weather event is defined as a climate phenomenon that has not been observed for the past 30 years and that may have occurred by climate change and climate variability. The abnormal climate change can induce natural disasters such as floods, droughts, typhoons, heavy snow, etc. How will the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events be affected by the global warming change in the $21^{st}$ century? This could be a quite interesting matter of concern to the hydrologists who will forecast the extreme weather events for preventing future natural disasters. In this study, we establish the extreme indices and analyze the trend of extreme weather events using extreme indices estimated from the observed data of 66 stations controlled by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in Korea. These analyses showed that spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall have occurred. Under the global climate change, Korea, unlike in the past, is now being affected by extreme weather events such as heavy rain and abnormal temperatures in addition to changes in climate phenomena.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.33-52
• /
• 1999

The purpose of this study is to project the supply and demand for nurses till the year 2012 and to make recommendations for establishment of proper policies regarding them. To predict the supply of nurses. a baseline projection and demographic methods were employed. The derivative demand was used to forecast the demand of nurses. The results of this study provide us with valuable information on nursing manpower planning for the 21th century. Specifically. results indicate that there will be an oversupply of nurses in the near future based on the current productivity. Based on the medical law. there will be an undersupply of nurses till 2002 but an oversupply after that. Thus. the active supply of nurses must be decreased. One way to achieve this would be decreasing the size of training and education. Thus. we recommend that the number of entrances to 4 year programs will be reduced 20% in 2004. and a reduction of 20% by 2005 in 3 year programs. The results of this study suggest the following: First. a manpower bank for nurses who are trying to reenter the market must be established. Second, improvement of education and retraining is needed for the quality control of nurses. Further studies should take into consideration the above factors.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.55-57
• /
• 2016

In this paper, we present an algorithm to determine the abnormal behavior through a CCTV-based behavioral recognition and a pattern of hand using ConvexHull. In the existing way that using CCTV for crime prevention, facial recognition is mainly used. Facial recognition is the way that compares the faces that are seen on the screen and faces of criminals for determining how dangerous targets are, however, this way is hard to predict future criminal behavior. Therefore, to predict more various situations, abnormal behaviours are determined with targets' incline of arms, legs and bodys and patterns of hand movements. it can forecast crimes when an acting has been getting within common normality out, comparing whose acting patterns with the crime patterns.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.7 no.7
• /
• pp.87-95
• /
• 2007

On this study, we researched differences between 2D and 3D with principle of GUI with the estimate that the user interface will be changed to 3D and we figured out the special feature of 3d-GUI through 3 ways, Autonomy, Interaction and Presence. Based on this theory research, we also had a survey with difference of 3d and 2d GUI to forecast the possibility of 3d-GUI for the main user interface of the future media contents and finally found out its marketability as an ideal interface.