• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2019

The purpose of the work is to develop a simple solar irradiance prediction model using a deep learning method, the LSTM (long term short term memory). Other than existing prediction models, the proposed one uses only the cloudiness among the information forecasted from the national meterological forecast center. The future cloudiness is generally announced with four categories and for three-hour intervals. In this work, a daily irradiance pattern is used as an input vector to the LSTM together with that cloudiness information. The proposed model showed an error of 5% for learning and 30% for prediction. This level of error has lower influence on the load prediction in typical building cases.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.61-73
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• 2019

In 2019, 5G mobile communication technology will be commercialized. From the viewpoint of technological innovation, 5G service can be applied to other industries or developed further. Therefore, it is important to measure the demand of the Internet of things (IoT) because it is predicted to be commercialized widely in the 5G era and its demand hugely effects on the economic value of 5G industry. In this paper, we applied Bayesian method on regression model to find out the demand of 5G IoT service, wearable service in particular. As a result, we confirmed that the Bayesian regression model is closer to the actual value than the existing regression model. These findings can be utilized for predicting future demand of new industries.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.32-42
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• 2021

Innovative developments in wearable and artificial intelligence technologies are accelerating the emergence of a soft suit that can autonomously augment a body's own strength and protect the human body. In this paper, we define the concept of "Exoskin," a new concept specifically derived from the "Road to an Intelligent Information Society" (Technology Development Map 2035) as predicted by the Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute. In addition, we analyze the development status of each element of this technology and forecast its future development.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.49-74
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• 2022

This paper empirically examines how fiscal instability affects financial instability. According to an IMF forecast (2021a), the fiscal space in Korea will be steadily reduced in the future. The theoretical literature predicts that if fiscal stability is undermined, financial stability will also be in danger given that government guarantees on banks are weakened and/or sovereign bonds held in banks become riskier. This paper empirically finds the existence of this negative impact of fiscal instability on financial instability. I also find that the intensity of this fiscal-financial relationship is greater in a country where (i) its currency is not a reserve currency such as the US dollar or euro, (ii) its banking sector is large relative to government sector, and/or (iii) its private credit to GDP is high. Korea has all of these three characteristics and hence needs to put more effort into maintaining fiscal stability.

• 정보화정책
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.37-64
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• 2018

본 연구는 빅데이터 분석을 통해 한국사회의 미래를 예견해보고자 한 것이다. 이러한 목적을 위해 일차적으로 국내 127개 주요 언론사의 뉴스기사(매체지) 및 사회과학 우수학술지 논문초록(학술지) DB에서 '미래사회' 관련 텍스트를 선정한 후, 해당 기사의 제목 및 논문 키워드로부터 주제어를 추출하였다. 추출한 핵심 주제어의 출현 빈도, 연도별 추세 및 주제어/연관어 연결망구조에 의거해 한국사회의 미래적 관심사를 탐지한 결과, 매체지의 미래 관심사는 '경제', '정치', '과학기술', 학술지의 그것은 '심리', '직무', '문화' 관련 사항들이 주축을 이루고 있음이 확인되었다. 여기에 $J{\ddot{u}}rgen$ Habermas의 '체계와 생활세계(system and life-world)' 개념틀을 적용하면, 매체지와 학술지의 미래 관심은 각기 '체계' 및 '생활세계' 범주에 집중되어 있다는 결론에 이르게 된다. 이 같은 미래 관심사의 분화 양상에 착안해 사회적 도전 과제들을 상이한 여건이나 가치들 간의 불일치의 소산으로 인식하는 '부조화론(mismatch theory)'을 미래연구를 위한 대안적 패러다임으로 제시함으로써, 절대적 혹은 상대적 빈곤 문제에 천착해 온 미래사회의 인식 수준을 한 단계 높이고자 한다.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.161-167
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• 2010

통신과 방송의 융합 환경에서 소셜한 개인 방송은 급속하게 증가한다. 실시간 개인방송은 다수의 개인이 불특정 다수에게 전달하는 서비스이다. 반면 새롭게 소개되는 개인방송 서비스는 사회, 문화적으로 경험하지 못한 서비스로서 많은 문제점도 예상된다. 새롭게 등장한 실시간 개인방송 서비스는 그 순기능 못지않게 다양한 역기능이 예상된다. 예측된 역기능을 미연에 방지하고 서비스의 순기능을 강화하기 위해 취약점 분석을 기반으로 한 이용방안(가이드라인)의 조성과 실천이 필요하다. 따라서 이 글은 사이버규범, 사이버윤리, 사이버위험, 사이버민주주의 등을 위협하는 정보화의 역기능을 소셜한 개인방송 서비스 수준에서 점검하고 이에 적절한 이용방안을 제시하는 것에 목적을 둔다. 이를 통해 첫째, 개인방송 서비스에 따른 정보화 역기능 미래 변화 예측 및 대응 전략 그리고 정책 방향을 제시할 수 있다. 둘째, 개인방송 서비스에서 새롭게 등장할 수 있는 ICT 기반 서비스의 역기능을 예측하고 바른 이용자 가이드 라인을 마련하여 잠재적 위험 요소를 줄이고 서비스의 순기능을 늘릴 수 있다. 이 글은 신규 ICT융합서비스 중 실시간 개인방송 서비스를 중심으로 뉴미디어적인 특성을 다각도로 분석하고 역기능 출현 및 심화에 대해 예측한 후, 가이드라인을 제시한다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권7호
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• pp.451-461
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• 2019

장기 기상전망 기반 댐 유입량 전망은 가뭄 대비, 용수 공급 관리 등에 활용성이 높다. 본 연구에서는 국내 7개 다목적댐 유역에 대해 유입량 전망을 수행하고 장기 기상전망 정확도가 댐 유입량 전망 정확도에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 강우-유출 모델의 입력자료로 활용된 장기 기상전망 자료는 기상청 GloSea5의 과거재현자료(hindcast) 및 미래전망자료(forecast)를 활용하였다. 강우-유출 모델은 다양한 특성을 가지고 있는 TANK, ABCD, K-DRUM, PRMS를 활용하였다. 댐 유입량 전망 정확도는 과거재현기간(1996~2009)과 미래전망기간(2015~2016)에 대하여 평가하였다. 댐 유입량 전망 평가결과 전망값은 관측값에 비해 과소추정하는 경향을 보였으며, 매개변수 검보정이 적절히 수행된 강우-유출 모델은 댐 유입량 전망 정확도에 미치는 영향이 거의 없는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 장기 기상전망 자료, 특히 강수량은 댐 유입량 전망 정확도에 매우 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 현업에서 댐 유입량 전망 자료 활용시 과소추정하는 경향을 고려하여 활용할 필요가 있다. 향후 댐 유입량 전망 정확도 개선은 강우-유출 모델 보다 장기 기상전망의 강수량 정확도 향상을 위주로 수행할 필요가 있다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.105-128
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• 2008

City of Gyeongju's referendum finally offered the long-waited low-level radioactive waste disposal site in November 2005. Gyeongju's positive decision was due to the various economic rewards and incentives the national government promised to the city. 300 billion won for an accepting bonus, the location of the headquarter building of the Korean Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., and the accelerator research center and 3.25 trillion won for supporting regional development program implementation. All of the above will affect the city's infrastructure and the citizens' economic and social lives. Population, land use, economic structure, SOC and quality of life will be affected. Some will be very positive, and some will be negative. This research project will see the future of the city and forecast the demographic, economic, physical and environmental changes of the city via computer simulation's system dynamics technique. This kind of simulation will help City of Gyeongju's what to prepare for the future. The population forecasting of the year 2046 will be 662,424 with the waste disposal site, and 327,274 without the waste disposal site in Gyeongju. The waste disposal site and regional supporting program will increase 184,246 Jobs more with 1,605 agriculture and fishery, 5,369 manufacturing shops and 27,577 shops. The population increase will bring 96,726 more houses constructed in the city. Land use will also be affected. More land will be developed. And road, water plant and waste water plant will be expanded as much. The city's financial structure will be expanded, due to the increased revenues from the waste disposal site, and property tax revenues from the middle-class employees of the company, and the high-powered scientists and technologists from the accelerator research center. All in all, the future of the city will be brighter after operating the nuclear waste disposal site inside the city.

• 복식
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• 제41권
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• pp.169-183
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• 1998

The Tartan, the representative check pattern and traditional costume of Scothand, is the most popualr checker which has inherited from the clans of the Scotch Highlands in the ancient times and continued to develop. It is a symbol of the Scotch culture and tadition and widely used in various ways according to status, birthplace purpose and use. Therefore, this study was intended to inquire into Tartan check. The purpose of this study attempted to make a systematic investigation of the characteristic of the Tartan check. the checker using vertical and horizontal lines which was the universal plastic element and inquire into it in terms of era, designers and combined works. By doing so, this study attempted to investigate the phase of the Tartan check in world fashion and further forecast the future of checker design applicable to the 21th-Century fashion. In addition it, attempted to investigate the features of Scottch costume unknown in our academic circles and inquire into the proless in while the Scottch has retained the originality of its own which suppressed by neighboring countries. This study could find out that the checker is the element of infinite applicability in the future. It is expected that the sophisticated and beautiful design using the checker will be presented by many Korean designer through the overall and systanatic study of the checker. On the other hand, to make an empirical study costume of other races, a comprehensive examination should be made of the social and cultural background against which locals are using their costume, through the survey of their real costume and on-spot research. It this respect, this study has some limitation in time and data collection. Besides the analysis of costume through materials and photos in museums as well as the study of cloth material and accurate colors was not con여cted in this in this study. This will remain to be study of in the future.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.