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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.7.451

An analysis of effects of seasonal weather forecasting on dam reservoir inflow prediction  

Kim, Seon-Ho (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Nam, Woo-Sung (National Drought Information Analysis Center, K-water corporation)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.52, no.7, 2019 , pp. 451-461 More about this Journal
Abstract
The dam reservoir inflow prediction is utilized to ensure for water supply and prevent future droughts. In this study, we predicted the dam reservoir inflow and analyzed how seasonal weather forecasting affected the accuracy of the inflow for even multi-purpose dams. The hindcast and forecast of GloSea5 from KMA were used as input for rainfall-runoff models. TANK, ABCD, K-DRUM and PRMS models which have individual characteristics were applied to simulate inflow prediction. The dam reservoir inflow prediction was assessed for the periods of 1996~2009 and 2015~2016 for the hindcast and forecast respectively. The results of assessment showed that the inflow prediction was underestimated by comparing with the observed inflow. If rainfall-runoff models were calibrated appropriately, the characteristics of the models were not vital for accuracy of the inflow prediction. However the accuracy of seasonal weather forecasting, especially precipitation data is highly connected to the accuracy of the dam inflow prediction. It is recommended to consider underestimation of the inflow prediction when it is used for operations. Futhermore, for accuracy enhancement of the predicted dam inflow, it is more effective to focus on improving a seasonal weather forecasting rather than a rainfall-runoff model.
Keywords
Dam inflow prediction; GloSea5; Rainfall-runoff modelling; Seasonal weather forecasting;
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