• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

Search Result 589, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Korea Reunification and Factor Movement : The Policy for Interregional Balanced Economic Growth (남북통일과 지역균형개발정책)

  • 김홍배;임재영
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-64
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper attempts to forecast regional economic changes and to analyze government polices for interregional balanced economic growth in case of Korea Reunification. It begins with be reunified at the year 2010. The model is largely neoclassical. Since the future of North Korea is unclear, two possible scenarios are presented. The paper projects economic growth of regions, specifically forecasting growth of regions, specifically forecasting GRDP, the number of migrants and the quantity of moving capital. The results obtained show that spatially unbalanced economic growth will take place in the reunified Korea through factor movement. Two polices including public capital provision policy and income subsidy policy are thus suggested and analyed.

  • PDF

Transformation expressed in Dress (Part I) (복식에 표현된 트랜스포메이션에 관한 연구 (제1보))

  • Na, Young-Won;Park, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
    • /
    • v.30 no.1 s.149
    • /
    • pp.167-175
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to clarify the expansion of functions of clothes by analyzing the characteristics of transformation, and to forecast future trends in fashion through systematization of the aforementioned analyses. Analysis of 20th century Modernism and Post-Modernism in a sociocultural sense confirms that transformation in clothes was formed by environmental, functional, deconstructive, and expressive factors. In this sense, the formative factors mentioned above conceptually include nomadic characteristics, usefulness, irregularity, and expressiveness. The nomadic characteristics found in clothes transformation signify the change of clothes into environmental nomadic everyday implements, used as tools for the body. Usefulness of clothes means that it is worn for variability, multipurpose multi-functionality, and combined multiple use. Irregularity means the clothes can change indefinitely, according to random manipulation on the wearer's part. Last of all, expressiveness conveys the designer's internal sensitivity and imagination onto an external object through the induction of various expressive factors.

Dynamic Model of a Long-term Water Demand Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이나믹스를 이용한 도시 물수요 장기 예측의 동적 모델 연구)

  • Lee, Sangeun;Choi, Dongjin;Park, Heekyungh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.75-82
    • /
    • 2007
  • When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

Numerical Simulation of the Floodwave Analysis Resulting from Dam Failure - Flood on Dry Bed from Instantaneous Dam-Break- (댐의 파괴형태와 하도부 양상에 따른 홍수파의 전달특성 해석에 관한 연구 - 급격한 댐 파괴와 마른하도를 중심으로 -)

  • 한건윤
    • Water for future
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.467-476
    • /
    • 1990
  • Numerical model for the floodwave propagation on dry bed which is resulting from the instantaneous failure of a dam has been developed by moving Hartree scheme. The numerical simulation result of the model has good agreements with the observed data by WES in terms of stage hydrograph and characteristics profiled. The model would contribute effectively to forecast the flood on dry bed resulting from instantaneous dam-break.

  • PDF

Classification of application services and development of demand forecasting methodology in domestic communication satellite system (국내 위성통신의 응용서비스 분류체계 및 수요예측 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • 안재경;홍정식;이강원;임종인;박명철
    • Korean Management Science Review
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-39
    • /
    • 1993
  • In this study, potential Communication Satellite Application Services (CSASs) that are suitable for our communication environment have been identified through a detailed analysis of the CSASs offered in advanced countries. The existing demand forecast based on the defined CSAS category has been improved, and the transponder assignment policy has also been recommended. Managerial problems rather than technical ones for KOREASAT project have mainly been addressed and tackled in this study. For the successful implementation of the domestic communication satellite system, these two problems should be solved simultaneously. Therefore, future research that includes technical as well as managerial issues is expected to come out soon.

  • PDF

CONTROL STRATEGY OF AN ACTIVE SUSPENSION FOR A HALF CAR MODEL WITH PREVIEW INFORMATION

  • CHO B.-K.;RYU G.;SONG S. J.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.243-249
    • /
    • 2005
  • To improve the ride comfort and handling characteristics of a vehicle, an active suspension which is controlled by external actuators can be used. An active suspension can control the vertical acceleration of a vehicle and the tire deflection to achieve the desired suspension goal. For this purpose, Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme is applied with the assumption that the preview information of the oncoming road disturbance is available. The predictive control approach uses the output prediction to forecast the output over a time horizon and determines the future control over the horizon by minimizing the performance index. The developed method is applied to a half car model of four degrees-of-freedom and numerical simulations show that the MPC controller improves noticeably the ride qualities and handling performance of a vehicle.

A STUDY OF DETERMINATION PRIORITY ORDER FOR BUILDING RAILROADS IN METROPOLITAN AREA (광역철도건설 우선순위에 관한 연구 - 수도권전철을 중심으로 -)

  • 이용상
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 1998.05a
    • /
    • pp.137-159
    • /
    • 1998
  • For the construction of railroads in Metropolytan area based upon the outcome of the future demand forecast, a total of 21 lines including electrified double track segment of Ui-Jung-Bu↔Dong-Du-Chun(18.9km) in Kyung-Won Line is expected. Considering the financial difficulties and investment effect of the lines, this in the sequel brings about an important matter of deforming priority Investment plan to build electrified lines among the candidates. In the case of Japan, Tokyo metropolytan area covered In total by 2,070.1km of various lines, i.e., subway lines(241km), private lines(952.7km), JR lines(876.4km), provides convenient means of transportation for the coummuters and makes a contribution to the development of its neighboring areas and to the expansion of settlement areas. Comparing the total length per 1,000$\textrm{km}^2$, Tokyo(105), Paris(117), and London(115) are at least 6 times as large as ours(15). The purpose of this study is two fold provide a basic scheme for building railroads in metropolytan area and determine priority order in accordance with some evaluation criteria.

  • PDF

An Analysis of New Textile Material Developmental Trend (섬유 신소재 개발 Trend에 대한 고찰)

  • 이유경;김순심
    • Korean Journal of Rural Living Science
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-24
    • /
    • 1995
  • The new textile materials may be defined as textile materials different from already existing ones in the physical and chemical structure, manufacturing process, or end-use property. The present time what is called the post-industrial society is characterized by rapid change and new technology. Also, textile materials have been changed rapidly and diversely in the post-industrial society than in any other periods. The study aimed to analyze the trend of new tektite materials development in Korea and to forecast the development trend in the future. To investigate the trend of new textile materials, various written materials and informations were collected from the manufacturers, textile related periodicals, and research journals, and they were analyzed. The period of analysis was from January 1992 to May 1995. The results of this research are as followings : (1) Mixed textile materiasl such as bicomponent fiber, blended yam and blended fabric were increased. (2) High technology has an important effect upon new textile material development. (3) functional textile materials were increased (4) The high value-added products were increased. (5) The naturalized textile materials were increased.

  • PDF

A Performance Evaluation of Multimedia-on-demand Server Using Simulation Method (시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 주문형 멀티미디어 서버의 성능 평가)

  • 박기진
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.33-43
    • /
    • 1998
  • To evaluate the server performance and forecast capacity requirements, we carry out simulation of Multimedia-on-demand(MOD) server. In multimedia service environment, especially for on-demand service, one of the key problems is capacity planning, which requires ensuring that adequate computer resources will be available to meet the future workload demands in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we design and implement a simulation model for MOD server with failures of components (e.g., processors, disks and networks). By acquisition of utilization and queue length parameters, we can estimate desirable capacity of server components with various arrival rates of customers and failure rates of components. For a given failure probability, we also compute packet delay probability and reliability of the server. It is possible to derive some important design information of the MOD server by using the above parameters.

  • PDF

A study on the forecast of Paper Industry and Logistic Innovation Activity (제지산업 수급 전망 및 물류 공동화 방안에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Choi, Chun-Ho;Choi, Jong-Su;Kim, Ha-Gon;Kim, Bu-Yeol;Yu, Kang-Cheol;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.183-188
    • /
    • 2010
  • The recent market trend of demand and supply of domestic paper industry expected confusion in near future due to massive imports of low cost product because of suddenly emerging of China's mass productive equipment and capacity. Related domestic industry is deploying joint co-coperative partnership and logistic service, joint operations of transportation and distribution center and innovation activity for customer satisfaction. This paper tries to present a solution through analysis of related paper industry a case study.