• Title/Summary/Keyword: future distribution

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Distribution Load Forecasting based with Land-use Estimation (토지용도 추정을 기반으로 한 배전계통 부하예측)

  • Kwon, Seong-Chul;Lee, Hak-Joo;Choi, Byoung-Youn
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07c
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    • pp.1481-1483
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    • 1999
  • Power distribution system planning for maximum customer satisfaction and system efficiency requires accurate forecast of future demand in service area. Spatial load forecasting method provides a more accurate estimation of both magnitudes and location of future electrical load. This method considers the causes of load growth due to addition of customers and per capita consumption among customers by land use (residential, commercial and industrial). So the land-use study and it's preference for small area is quite important. This paper proposes land-use preference estimation method based on fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic is applied to computing preference scores for each land-use and by these scores the customer growth is allocated in service area. An simulation example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

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Continuous Audits Using Decision Support Systems

  • Mohammadi, Shaban
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.5-8
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This article's aim is to examine how the utilization of existing and future decision-support systems will lead to a change in the auditing process. Research design, data, and methodology - An information system is a special decision-support system that combines information obtained from various sources and communicates among them to help in assessing appropriate complex financial decisions. This paper analyzes techniques such as data and text mining as components of decision-support systems to be used in the auditing process. Results - We present views about how existing decision-support systems will lead to a change in audits. Auditors, who currently collect significant data manually, will in the future move towards management through complex decision-support systems. Conclusions - Although some internal audit functions are integrated into systems of continuous monitoring, the use of such systems remains limited. Thus, instead of multiple decision-support systems, a unified decision-support system can be deployed for this that includes sensors integrated within a company in different contexts (e.g., production, sales, and accounting) that continually monitors violations of controls, unusual patterns, and unusual transactions.

Review of Vendor Managed Inventory: Investigation on How It Improves Supply Chain Performance

  • Ryu, Chung-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This study reviews the past studies that have researched Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) as a well-known supply chain collaboration program. The main goals of this study are to figure out how VMI brings significant benefits to the supply chain system and suggest additional areas that future studies would address to discover the true nature of VMI. Research design, data, methodology - This study conducts literature reviews on numerous studies that have researched VMI. The past studies are classified in terms of several main issues that have been commonly addressed by many researchers. This study also identifies three key collaborative features of VMI, which possibly explain why VMI improves the supply chain performance. Results - This study finds out that most past studies focused on a limited research issues about VMI. Many researchers have considered integrated decision making and information sharing to be key features that enables VMI to improve the supply chain performance. Conclusions - Based on the findings from the literature review, this study suggests that future studies on VMI take account of new research issues and pay attention to cost payment that researchers have rarely addressed.

Characteristics of Stimulated Brillouin Scattering Suppression in High-power Fiber Lasers Using Temperature Gradients (온도구배에 의한 고출력 광섬유 레이저의 유도 브릴루앙 산란 억제 특성)

  • Jeong, Seongmook;Kim, Kihyuck;Lee, Sunghun;Hwang, Soonhwi;Yang, Hwanseok;Moon, Byunghyuck;Jhon, Young Min;Park, Min Kyu;Lee, Jung Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we studied characteristics of stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) suppression in high-power fiber lasers by using apparatuses applying a temperature gradient (i.e. a step, a sine shape, and random temperature distribution) along the fiber. From the ytterbium-doped polarization-maintaining fiber master oscillator power amplifier built in house, we measured the back-reflection spectrum and power for each temperature gradient, showing that the step shape temperature distribution was the most effective way to suppress SBS. In addition, we investigated the interaction of pseudo-random binary sequence phase modulation conditions and temperature gradients for SBS suppression.

Prediction of Acer pictum subsp. mono Distribution using Bioclimatic Predictor Based on SSP Scenario Detailed Data (SSP 시나리오 상세화 자료 기반 생태기후지수를 활용한 고로쇠나무 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Chaeyoung;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Jina;Song, Wonkyong
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.

Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

Predicting Arab Consumers' Preferences on the Korean Contents Distribution

  • Park, Young-Eun;Chaffar, Soumaya;Kim, Myoung-Sook;Ko, Hye-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the analysis of pattern on Arab countries consumers' preferences of the Korean Contents using social media, Facebook since Korean entertainment contents have been distributed in the global marketplace. Then we focus on developing Predictive model using a Data Mining Technique. Research design, data and methodology - In order to understand preference growth of Korean contents in Arabic countries, we- collected data from two popular Facebook pages: 'Korean movies and drama' and 'K-pop'. Then, we adopted a data-driven approach based on Data Mining techniques. Results - It is obvious that the number of likes for K-pop will increase for all North African and Middle Eastern countries, however concerning Korean Movies and Drama except Tunisia it is decreasing for Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. Also, concerning Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, the number of likes will decrease for Korean Movies and Drama which is not the case for Iraq. Conclusions - It is noted in this study that K-contents such as drama, movie and music are sometimes a gateway to a wider interest in Korean culture, food and brands. Moreover, this study gives significant implications for developing predictive model to forecast Korean contents' consumption and preferences.

Bioindicator at $A_2O$ Wastewater Treatment Plant ($A_2O$ 공법 처리장의 Bioindicator)

  • Lee, Chan-Hyung;Moon, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2005
  • The occurrence and abundance of protozoa at advanced wastewater treatment plant were compared with operating parameters and effluent quality using statistical procedures. In correlation analysis between the distribution of protozoa and operating parameters, the distribution of protozoa was showed the operating condition of plant. Regression analysis between the distribution of protozoa and effluent quality up to 7 days, showed the R-square values of most regression equation were more than 0.6 and constant was higher than slope and could indicate effluent quality from sampling day to 7 days. Once enough data concerning protozoa, operating parameters and effluent has been gathered, the operator has a valuable tool for predicting plant performance and near-future effluent quality based on microscopic examination. Plant operator manipulates operating conditions if he knows near-future data of effluent is deteriorating. Perhaps more importantly it can be used to actually control the plant to adjust the operating conditions to obtain the protozoal populations that have been shown to provide the best effluent quality.

Characteristics of and Prospect for Population Distribution in Korea (인구분산 및 이동의 특성과 전망)

  • 최진호
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of population distribution during the past 25 years; to evaluate effect of population redistribution policies which have been adopted by the government; and to suggest desirable future policy directions. The distinctive features of population distribution during the period of 196O~85 can be summarized as progress of rapid urbanization, decrease of absolute number of rural population and heavy concentration of population in the Seoul metropolitan area which have resulted in population maldistribution among regions. The problem of population concentration in the selected one or two large urban centers was first recognized by the government as early as in 1964. Since then numerous policy measures have been adopted to reduce the population concentration into the Seoul metropolitan area and thus to guide a sound population redistribution among regions. The overall assessment of various policies on population redistribution, however, revealed that the effect of the policy efforts has not been great as they originally anticipated. Various reasons can be cited for the failure of the past policies. Among them the followings were frequently mentioned; lack of integration among policy measures; weak linkage between relocation and accommodation; and non-existence of single authority for overall implementation of the polices. Based on the past experiences the followings are suggested in pursuing future policies. First, the short-term objective or target should be clearly defined. Second, policy measures have to be designed to go with rather than against market forces. Third, indirect incentives or aids are more effective than direct controls or regulations. Fourth, local participation has to be secured in every phase of policy formulation and implementation.

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Conceptual application methodology of 22.9㎸ HTS cable in metropolitan city of Republic of Korea

  • Yoon, Jae-Young;Kim, Jong-Yul;Lee, Seung-Ryul
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2004
  • As the power demand has increased and power industry deregulation has progressed, the transmission and distribution system will have more complicated problems by the influence of investment reduction and NIMBY phenomena for overall power system. It is expected that the route length per MW demand will reduce gradually from 0.6[C-km/MW] to 0.53 [C-km/MW] in 2010. This comes up to a real serious problem of system planning and operational viewpoints. HTS technologies related to power system have properties to solve these complex transmission and distribution constraints, especially for metropolitan area, in the future. As the HTS technology has developed, the HTS cable technology can be the most effective alternative to solve the future expected power network constraints. This paper describes the application methodology of developing 22.9㎸ HTS cable by CAST for practical distribution system. 22.9㎸ HTS cable under development with step-by-step application methodology can substitute the existing and planning conventional 154㎸ cable. If this scheme is applied, part of downtown 154㎸ substation of metropolitan city such as Seoul can be changed into 22.9㎸ switching station. It can give great economic, environmental and additional benefits to all of the concerned authorities.