• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.19-31
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• 2013

Objectives: Elevated temperatures during summer months have been reported since the early 20th century to be associated with increased daily mortality. However, future death impacts of high temperatures resulting from climate change could be variously estimated in consideration of the future changes in historical temperature-mortality relationships, mortality, and population. This study examined the future death burden of high temperatures resulting from climate change in Seoul over the period of 2001-2040. Methods: We calculated yearly death burden attributable to high temperatures stemming from climate change in Seoul from 2001-2040. These future death burdens from high temperature were computed by multiplying relative risk, temperature, mortality, and population at any future point. To incorporate adaptation, we assumed future changes in temperature-mortality relationships (i.e. threshold temperatures and slopes), which were estimated as short-term temperature effects using a Poisson regression model. Results: The results show that climate change will lead to a substantial increase in summer high temperature-related death burden in the future, even considering adaptation by the population group. The yearly death burden attributable to elevated temperatures ranged from approximately 0.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001-2010 to about 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Seoul in 2036-2040. Conclusions: This study suggests that adaptation strategies and communication regarding future health risks stemming from climate change are necessary for the public and for the political leadership of South Korea.

• 대기
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2018

In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty in the process of selecting GCM and downscaling method for assessing the impact of climate change, and influence of user-centered climate change information on reproducibility of Chungju Dam inflow was analyzed. First, we selected the top 16 GCMs through the evaluation of spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 raw GCMs using 30-year average of 10-day precipitation without any bias-correction. The climate extreme indices including annual total precipitation and annual maximum 1-day precipitation were selected as the relevant indices to the dam inflow. The Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) downscaling method was selected through the evaluation of reproducibility of selected indices and spatial correlation among weather stations. SWAT simulation results for the past 30 years period by considering limitations in weather input showed the satisfactory results with monthly model efficiency of 0.92. The error in average dam inflow according to selection of GCMs and downscaling method showed the bests result when 16 GCMs selected raw GCM analysi were used. It was found that selection of downscaling method rather than selection of GCM is more is important in overall uncertainties. The average inflow for the future period increased in all RCP scenarios as time goes on from near-future to far-future periods. Also, it was predicted that the inflow volume will be higher in the RCP 8.5 scenario than in the RCP 4.5 scenario in all future periods. Maximum daily inflow, which is important for flood control, showed a high changing rate more than twice as much as the average inflow amount. It is also important to understand the seasonal fluctuation of the inflow for the dam management purpose. Both average inflow and maximum inflow showed a tendency to increase mainly in July and August during near-future period while average and maximum inflows increased through the whole period of months in both mid-future and far-future periods.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under four major greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. These provide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicators estimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it is the most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting a subset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, we could provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.

• 대기
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.297-306
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• 2023

Celebrating its 60th anniversary, this study suggests the future vision of the Korean Meteorological Society (KMS) for the next 60 years. The vision is "to advance atmospheric science and technology that contributes to human society as well as protect people from not only climate change risks but also weather, climate, and environmental disasters". Based on the suggestions from its members, this study proposes the KMS future development plan as follows. The first plan is to strengthen in leading the development and growth of atmospheric sciences in Korea, especially to improve weather, climate, and environment forecasts and to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. The second is to enhance interaction not only among its members in academy, Korea Meteorological Administration and related organizations, meteorological industry, and science communicators but also with other related fields such as energy, water resources, agriculture, fishery, and forestry. The third is to enhance in nurturing young scientists by supporting domestic and international networks and training the state-of-the-art sciences, and to create opportunities for young scientists to advance into a wider field. The last is to expand its international activities for solving the challenges facing mankind, such as climate change risks and weather, climate, and environment disasters. The KMS should also continue the efforts to establish an integrative platform for leading fundamental and interdisciplinary research in weather, climate, and environment.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2012

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

• 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국측량학회 2010년 춘계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.383-385
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• 2010

This study analyzed the change of flowout and suspend solid in Andong and Imha basin according to the climate change to develop evaluation index about turbid water occurrence possibility and to support the countermeasures for turbid water management using GIS-based Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). MIROC3.2 hires model values of A1B climate change scenario that were supplied by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were applied to future climage change data. Precipitation and temperature were corrected by applying the output value of 20th Century Climate Coupled Model (20C3M) based on past climate data during 1977 and 2006 and downscaled with Change Factor (CF) method. And future climate change scenarios were classified as three periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and the change of flowout and suspended solid according to the climate change were estimated by coupling modeled value with SWAT model.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제24권12호
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• pp.1649-1656
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• 2015

Jeju Island is the highest rain-prone area in Korea that possesses affluent water resources, but future climate changes are predicted to further increase vulnerabilities as resultant of increasing of extreme events and creating spatial-temporal imbalance in water resources. Therefore, this study aimed to provide basic information to establish a proper water resources management plan by evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources using climate change scenario. Direct runoff ratio for 15 years (2000~2014) was analyzed to be 11~32% (average of 23%), and average direct runoff ratio for the next 86 years (2015~2100) was found as 28%, showing an increase of about 22% compared to the present average direct runoff ratio (23%). To assess the effects of climate change on long-term runoff, monthly runoff variation of future Gangjeong watershed was analyzed by dividing three time periods as follows: Present (2000~2030), Future 1 (2031~2070) and Future 2 (2071~2100). The estimated results showed that average monthly runoff increases in the future and the highest runoff is shown by Future 2. Extreme values has been expected to occur more frequently in the future as compared to the present.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.891-905
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• 2011

Climate vulnerability index is usually defined as a function of the climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which requires adequate selection of proxy variables of each variable. We selected and used 9 proxy variables related to climate exposure in the literature, and diagnosed the adequacy of them for application in Korean peninsula. The selected proxy variables are: four variables from temperature, three from precipitation, one from wind speed, and one from relative humidity. We collected climate data over both previous year (1981~2010) and future climate scenario (A1B scenario of IPCC SERES) for 2020, 2050, and 2100. We introduced the spatial and temporal diagnostic statistical parameters, and evaluated both spatial and time variabilities in the relative scale. Of 9 proxy variables, effective humidity indicated the most sensitive to climate change temporally with the biggest spatial variability, implying a good proxy variable in diagnostics of climate change vulnerability in Korea. The second most sensitive variable is the frequency of strong wind speed with a decreasing trend, suggesting that it should be used carefully or may not be of broad utility as a proxy variable in Korea. The A1B scenario of future climate in 2020, 2050 and 2100 matches well with the extension of linear trend of observed variables during 1981~2010, indicating that, except for strong wind speed, the selected proxy variables can be effectively used in calculating the vulnerability index for both past and future climate over Korea. Other local variabilities for the past and future climate in association with climate exposure variables are also discussed here.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.