• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.235-239
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• 2005

정확한 산불위험예보는 효율적인 산불감시 및 예방 활동에 기여할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 2002년까지 운용되었던 산림청 산불위험예보시스템의 산불위험지수, 산불위험예보 등급과 실제 산불발생과의 관계를 고찰하였다. 산불위험지수와 산불발생건수의 회귀분석 결과, 비교 적 높은 설명력$(악67\%)$을 가진 반면 산불위험지수와 산불발생 피해면적과는 특별한 상관관계가 없었다. 산불위험예보 등급별로 산불발생의 차이 분석을 위해 일원분산분석을 실시한 결과, 산불발생 건수의 경우 '위험'과 '경계', '없음' 등 세 등급에 차이가 존재했으나, '경계' 와 '없음'은 구별되지 않았다. 산불발생 피해면적의 경우 '위험'과 '경계', '없음' 세 등급 모두에 있어서 차이가 발견되지 않았다. 따라서 금후에는 기존모델에 대한 산불 위험지수 위험등급조정과 더불어 산불확산지수가 고려된 통합산불위험지수 모델의 개발이 필요하다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.242-249
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• 2004

This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purpose of forecasting forest fire danger. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, and temperature. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we need to develop a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire. Forest fore occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using time series weather data sets collected from 8 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were for 5 years from 1997 through 2001. Development of the forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. An eight-province probability model by was developed. The meteorological variables that emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are effective humidity, wind speed, and temperature. A forest fire occurrence danger rating index of through 10 was developed as a function of daily weather index (DWI).

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.153-156
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• 2008

Comparative analysis of forest fire danger rating on the forest characteristics of thinning area and non-thinning area on forest fire burnt area was studied in this work. To investigate the effect of thinning slash in forest fire, Gangneung-si Wangsan-myeon, Ulgin-gun Wonnam-Myeon, Samchok-si Gagok-Myeon, in which forest fire broke out, were selected. As a result that investigated forest fire danger ratio between thinning slash and non-thinning slash, leeward scorching ratio(36%), crown damage ratio(29%), mortality of branch at the former are higher than those at the latter, leeward scorching ratio of tree, where thinning slash is around, is 10%-20% higher than that of independent tree. So I estimate that thinning slash has a some effect on the intensity of forest fire. And the result to investigate damage of forest fire according to tree species shows that leeward scorching ratio of conifer is 5% higher than that of non-conifer, and mortality of branch of the former is 19% higher than that of the latter. It is considered that forest fire may affect directly to a tree trunk if it diffuse to piled thinning tree because there was no space between thinning trees and trees. Furthermore, it was found that re-ignition had a chance to occur due to lots of piled thinning trees.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제99권2호
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• pp.163-171
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• 2010

Forest fires have potentials to change the structure and function of forest ecosystems and significantly influence on atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. Forest fire also affects the quality of public benefits such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, or tourism. The prediction of fire occurrence and its spread is critical to the forest managers for allocating resources and developing the forest fire danger rating system. Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behaviors and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. A total of 298 forest fires occurred during the fall season from 2002 to 2006 in South Korea were considered for developing a logistic model of forest fire occurrence. The results of statistical analysis show that only effective humidity and temperature significantly affected the logistic models (p<0.05). The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.739 to 0.876, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제99권2호
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• pp.197-203
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• 2010

The data of average temperature, average relative humidity, precipitation and average wind speed were collected from 674 meteorological stations in China. A specific procedure that processes original data into a new data format needed in forest fire danger rating forecast system of China was introduced systematically, and the feasibility of this method was validated in this paper. In addition, a set of meteorological data processing software was constructed by the secondary development of GIS in order to realize automation of processing data for the system. Results showed that the approach preformed well in handling temperature, average relative humidity and average wind speed, and the processing effect of precipitation was acceptable. Moreover, the automated procedure could be achieved by GIS and the working efficiency was about 3 times as much as that of manual handling. The informationization level of processing meteorological data was greatly enhanced.

• 농업생명과학연구
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• 제44권6호
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• pp.69-78
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 우리나라의 고층기상 관측자료와 수치모델(RDAPS 10km) 예상 자료를 활용하여 대기 불안정도와 건조도를 포함하는 산불잠재 위험지수인 Haines Index(HI)와 산불과의 관계를 분석하였고, 그 결과 산불 확산 잠재성이 높은 HI=5, 6은 4월에 가장 높게 나타났고, 대기의 안정도 보다는 건조도가 높게 나타났으며, 산불의 발생과 확산에 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2005년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.119-124
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• 2005

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2012

본 연구는 디지털예보(현 동네예보) 자료를 활용하여 우리나라의 산불위험예보의 정확도 향상은 물론 기상에 의한 산불위험지수를 산출하여 한반도의 산불위험예보 체계를 구축하는데 있다. 한반도 지역의 산불발생위험을 나타내는 기상지수(daily weather index, DWI)를 산출하기 위해 기상청의 5km 격자간격의 디지털예보자료를 이용하였다. DWI 분석을 위해 온도, 습도, 풍속 UV, 1시간 강우량, 12시간 강우량을 대상으로 한반도 전역에 대한 기상요소별 기후분포도를 제작하였다. 한반도의 기상에 의한 일일 DWI 산출을 위해 대형산불이 자주 발생하는 강원도 지역의 산불발생확률식 $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.494+(0.004{\times}T_{max})-(0.008{\times}EF))\}]^{-1}$을 적용하였다. 기상예보자료의 예측정확도 검증을 위해 RDAPS, 디지털예보, 실황자료 모두 2005년 12월 12일 15시 자료를 대상으로 비교 분석한 결과 76개 기상관측소에서 관측한 실황자료에 대응하는 기상요소별 디지털예보의 예측값이 RDAPS 추출 자료보다 향상된 예측결과를 보였다. 산불위험예보 정확도 검증을 위해 사용한 실황자료와 디지털예보자료의 평균오차는 평균 기온 $0.2^{\circ}C$, 실효습도 2.4%, 평균풍속 2.2m/s로 나타나 큰 변이는 없었지만, 평균풍속에서 실측값과 예측값간의 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 디지털예보자료를 활용할 경우 RDAPS 자료보다 산불위험예보의 정확도가 크게 향상되는 결과를 얻을 수 있었으며, 산불위험예보의 정확도 검증을 위해 실황자료와 디지털예보자료를 적용하여 예측된 전국 233개 시 군 구의 평균 산불위험지수를 각각 추출하여 비교한 결과 $R^2$=0.854의 높은 정확도를 보였다. 산불위험도가 가장 높은 15시의 실제 76개소에서 관측한 기상자료를 적용하여 전국의 산불위험지수를 예측한 값은 70.5로 디지털예보자료를 적용하여 예측한 위험지수(70.0)와 0.5의 오차를 보여 예측력이 개선되었음을 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 디지털예보를 적용할 경우 실황자료와의 예측력이 검증된 만큼 향후 기상에 의한 한반도의 산불발생위험지수를 보다 정확하게 계산하는데 유용하게 이용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.223-230
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• 2007

Nowaday, for the promotion of producing forest trees, production of excellent timbers, and build-up of public forest area, it is on the increase of the thinning-forest for artificial forest, natural forest, eco-friendly forest, and the forest for development and improvement of forest resources nationwide. Even though the thinning-forest is applied around 180,000ha every year, the quantity of collected/used products is only 18,000ha $(240,000m^3)$ which is 10% of the whole thinning-forest area. Meanwhile, some reports represent that the left products after thinning-forest might increase the severity of forest fire and the waste of resources. Therefore, this study focused on the analysis of correlation between the accumulated products after thinning-forest and forest fire, and providing a preparation plan for the forest fire.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권2호
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• pp.160-167
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• 2006

Most of the forest fires that occur in South Korea are caused by human. We partitioned South Korea into nine districts and used observed weather data and daily fire occurrence records for the 1994 to 2003 period to develop a human-caused fire occurrence model of South Korea. Logistic regression analysis techniques were used to relate the probability of a fire day to Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. The probability of the number of fire day was increased as FFMC increased in the nine districts of South Korea.