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Predicting on Human-caused Forest Fire Occurrence in South Korea  

Chae, Hee Mun (The Institute of Forest Science, Kangwon National University)
Lee, Chan yong (Department of Forest Resources Protection, Forest Resources Faculty, College of Forest Science, Kangwon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.95, no.2, 2006 , pp. 160-167 More about this Journal
Abstract
Most of the forest fires that occur in South Korea are caused by human. We partitioned South Korea into nine districts and used observed weather data and daily fire occurrence records for the 1994 to 2003 period to develop a human-caused fire occurrence model of South Korea. Logistic regression analysis techniques were used to relate the probability of a fire day to Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) component of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. The probability of the number of fire day was increased as FFMC increased in the nine districts of South Korea.
Keywords
human-caused fire occurrence; logistic regression analysis; Fine Fuel Moisture Code;
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