• 전자공학회논문지C
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• 제35C권8호
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• pp.68-74
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• 1998

The neural network predictiv econtroller (NNPC) is proposed for the attempt to mimic the function of brain that forecasts the future. It consists of two loops, one is for the prediction of output (NNP:neural network predictor) and the other one is for control the plant(NNC: neural network controller). The output of NNC makes the control input of plant, which is followed by the variation of both plant error and predictin error. The NNP forecasts the future output based upon the current control input and the estimated control output. The input and the output data of a system and a new method using evolution strategy are used to train the NNP. A two-step NNPC is applied to control the temeprature in boiler systems. It was compared with PI controller and auto-tuning PID controller. The computer simulaton and experimental results show that the proposed method has better performances than the other method.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.13-23
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• 2011

In this study, Mike11 will be used as the numerical model where a data assimilation method will be applied to it. This paper aims to gain an insight and understanding of data assimilation in flood forecasting models. It will start with a general discussion of data assimilation, followed by a description of the methodology and discussion of the statistical error forecast model used, which in this case is the linear regression. This error forecast model is applied to the water level forecast simulated by MIKE11 to produced improved forecast and validated against real measurements. It is found that there exists a phase error in the improved forecasts. Hence, 2 general formula are used to account for this phase error and they have shown improvement to the accuracy of the forecasts, where one improved the immediate forecast of up to 5 hours while the other improved the estimation of the peak discharge.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.79-98
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• 1999

There have been a number of empirical studios on the effectiveness of Judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts Generally the results have been mixed. This study examined the impact of the reliability and the source of the additionally presented reference forecast upon the revision process in a longitudinal time series forecasting task with forecast support systems. A 2-between(reliability ＆ source). 2-within(seasonality ＆ block) factorial experiment was conducted with post-graduate students using real time series. Judgmental adjustment was found to improve the accuracy of initial eyeballing irrespective of the reliability of an additionally presented forecast. But it did not outperform the dampened reference forecast. No effect was found of the way the source of the reference forecast was framed. Overall the subjects anchored heavily on their Initial forecast and relied too little on the reference forecast irrespective of its reliability. Moreover they did not improve at the task over time, despite immediate outcome feedback.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1995년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.798-800
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• 1995

The neural network predictive controller(NNPC) is proposed for the attempt to mimic the function of brain that forecasts the future. It consists of two loops, one is for the prediction of output(Neural Network Predictor) and the other one is for control the plant(Neural Network Controller). The output of NNC makes the control input of plant, which is followed by the variation of both plant error and prediction error. The NNP forecasts the future output based upon the current control input and the estimated control output. The method is applied to the control of temperature in boiler systems. The proposed NNPC is compared with the other conventional control methods such as PID controller, neural network controller with specialized learning architecture, and one-step-ahead controller. The computer simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method has better performances than the other methods.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.49-55
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• 2007

A special cause producing temporary deviation in the underlying process can influence on process adjustment in First-Order System feedback control system. In this paper, the impact of special causes on the forecasts and the process adjustment that is based on the EWMA forecasts are derived for a first-order system. For some special causes with patterned type of contamination, the influence of the causes on the output process are explicitly investigated. A data set, contaminated by a special cause of level shift, is analyzed to confirm the impact numerically.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.327-333
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• 2019

Wind speed data constitute important weather information for aircrafts flying at low altitudes, such as drones. Currently, the accuracy of low altitude wind predictions is much lower than that of high-altitude wind predictions. Deep neural networks are proposed in this study as a method to improve wind speed forecast information. Deep neural networks mimic the learning process of the interactions among neurons in the brain, and it is used in various fields, such as recognition of image, sound, and texts, image and natural language processing, and pattern recognition in time-series. In this study, the deep neural network model is constructed using the wind prediction values generated by the numerical model as an input to improve the wind speed forecasts. Using the ground wind speed forecast data collected at the Boseong Meteorological Observation Tower, wind speed forecast values obtained by the numerical model are compared with those obtained by the model proposed in this study for the verification of the validity and compatibility of the proposed model.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.369-374
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• 2011

Generally the neural network and the Fuzzy compensative algorithms are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with the characteristics of a nonlinear dynamic system, but, relatively, they have a few prediction errors. They also make long term forecasts difficult because of sensitivity to the initial conditions. In this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction and a time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov Exponent (L.E.) quantitatively. We compare simulated results with previous methods and verify that the present method is more practical and effective than the previous methods. We also obtain the hourly predictability of time series for power demand using the L.E. and evaluate its accuracy.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.99-111
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• 2001

The prediction of stock price index is a very difficult problem because of the complexity of stock market data. It has been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. The movement of stock price index has a series of change points due to the strategies of institutional investors. This study presents a two-stage forecasting model of stock price index using change-point detection and artificial neural networks. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in stock price index forecasting. First, the proposed model tries to detect successive change points in stock price index. Then, the model forecasts the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network(BPN). Finally, the model forecasts the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for stock price index forecasting using change-point detection.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.9-13
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• 2004

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.283-291
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of useof weather and climate information on farmer income. To accomplish the objective of the study a farm survey was conducted, whose target respondents were local correspondents and reporters of the Korea Rural Economic Institute. The ordered logit model was employed for empirical analysis on determining whether use of weather and climate information affects farmer income. The analysis results show that the greater is farmer use of short-range weather forecasts, the higher is the income. The results also show higher farmers income with use of short-range special weather forecasts. Based upon the empirical results, the dissemination of more precise weather and climate information is suggested to increase farmer income.