• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecasting the market size

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The Simulation and Forecast Model for Human Resources of Semiconductor Wafer Fab Operation

  • Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung;Chang, Chun-Yen;Lo, Mei-Chen
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2005
  • The efficiency of fabrication (fab) operation is one of the key factors in order for a semiconductor manufacturing company to stay competitive. Optimization of manpower and forecasting manpower needs in a modern fab is an essential part of the future strategic planing and a very important to the operational efficiency. As the semiconductor manufacturing technology has entered the 8-inch wafer era, the complexity of fab operation increases with the increase of wafer size. The wafer handling method has evolved from manual mode in 6-inch wafer fab to semi-automated or fully automated factory in 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fab. The distribution of manpower requirement in each specialty varied as the trend of fab operation goes for downsizing manpower with automation and outsourcing maintenance work. This paper is to study the specialty distribution of manpower from the requirement in a typical 6-inch, 8-inch to 12-inch wafer fab. The human resource planning in today’s fab operation shall consider many factors, which include the stability of technical talents. This empirical study mainly focuses on the human resource planning, the manpower distribution of specialty structure and the forecast model of internal demand/supply in current semiconductor manufacturing company. Considering the market fluctuation with the demand of varied products and the advance in process technology, the study is to design a headcount forecast model based on current manpower planning for direct labour (DL) and indirect labour (IDL) in Taiwan’s fab. The model can be used to forecast the future manpower requirement on each specialty for the strategic planning of human resource to serve the development of the industry.

Personalized Information Recommendation System on Smartphone (스마트폰 기반 사용자 정보추천 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-A;Kwon, Eung-Ju;Kang, Sanggil
    • Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2012
  • Recently, with a rapidly growing of the mobile content market, a variety of mobile-based applications are being launched. But mobile devices, compared to the average computer, take a lot of effort and time to get the final contents you want to use due to the restrictions such as screen size and input methods. To solve this inconvenience, a recommender system is required, which provides customized information that users prefer by filtering and forecasting the information.In this study, an tailored multi-information recommendation system utilizing a Personalized information recommendation system on smartphone is proposed. Filtering of information is to predict and recommend the information the individual would prefer to by using the user-based collaborative filtering. At this time, the degree of similarity used for the user-based collaborative filtering process is Euclidean distance method using the Pearson's correlation coefficient as weight value.As a real applying case to evaluate the performance of the recommender system, the scenarios showing the usefulness of recommendation service for the actual restaurant is shown. Through the comparison experiment the augmented reality based multi-recommendation services to the existing single recommendation service, the usefulness of the recommendation services in this study is verified.

Training and Management of Pets using Lego Mind Storms (레고 마인드스톰을 활용한 반려동물 훈련 및 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Donghwan;Kim, Sihyun;Yoon, Hosik;Kim, Minju;Lee, Sungjin;Moon, Sangho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2021.05a
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    • pp.383-385
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    • 2021
  • According to a paper on estimating and forecasting the size of the pet-related industry published in 2018, 26.9% of the nation's pet-owned households were in their 30s and one-person households, consisting only of couples, as of 2015. Regarding the social increase in single-person households and double-income couples, it is believed that the surge in neglect time and lack of training time that pets do not want is a problem. This paper conducted the development of hardware and software products for the training and management of companion animals using Lego Mind Storm. Lego mind Storm is equipped with a variety of sensors and can produce equipment to train or care pets with simple programming through easy assembly and visual scripting. It is also expected that switching to new equipment will be easy because it is well modularized. We hope that this study will help the training and management of pets when the expansion of the pet market becomes active through this study.

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Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.