• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2000년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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• pp.390-396
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• 2000

The basic concept of the model is minimizing the error range between forecasted flood inflow and actual flood inflow, and accurately forecasting the flood discharge some hours in advance depending on the concentration time(Tc) and soil moisture retention storage(Sa). Simplex method that is a multi-level optimization technique was used to search for the determination of the best parameters of RETFLO (REal-Time FLOod forecasting)model. The flood forecasting model developed was applied to several strom events of Yedang reservoir during past 10 years. Model perfomance was very good with relative errors of 10% for comparison of total runoff volume and with one hour delayed peak time.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권7호
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• pp.306-312
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• 2006

Support Vector Machine(SVM), of which the foundations have been developed by Vapnik (1995), is gaining popularity thanks to many attractive features and promising empirical performance. In this paper, we propose a new short-term load forecasting technique based on SVM. We discuss the input vector selection of SVM for load forecasting and analyze the prediction performance for various SVM parameters such as kernel function, cost coefficient C, and $\varepsilon$ (the width of 8 $\varepsilon-tube$). The computer simulation shows that the prediction performance of the proposed method is superior to that of the conventional neural networks.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.600-614
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• 2014

본 연구는 SARIMA 모형을 활용하여 기존에 다루어지지 않았던 분기별 항만 컨테이너 물동량을 예측하였다. 구체적으로 모델 추정에 활용된 자료는 1994년 1사분기부터 2010년 4사분기까지 총 84분기동안의 국내 전체 항만 컨테이너 물동량 자료이다. 본 연구에서 추정된 예측 모형의 예측 정확도를 검증하기 위하여 2011년 1사분기부터 2013년 4사분기까지 물동량을 예측하여 실제 물동량과 비교하였다. 또한 기존에 널리 활용되고 있는 ARIMA 모형을 활용하여 추정한 예측 모형과의 비교를 통해 분기별 항만 물동량 예측에 있어서 SARIMA 모형의 상대적 우수성을 검증하였다. 기존에 항만 물동량을 예측하는 대부분의 연구는 주로 장기 예측에 초점이 맞추어져 있다. 또한 월별, 연도별 물동량 자료가 활용된 경우가 대부분이다. 분기별 항만 컨테이너 물동량 자료를 활용하여 단기 수요를 예측함과 동시에 SARIMA 모형의 우수성을 입증한 본 연구는 충분한 가치가 있다고 판단된다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.343-349
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• 2011

The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.63-75
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• 2002

To improve the efficiency of the electric power generation, monthly maximum electric power consumptions for a next one year should be forecasted in advance and used as the fundamental input to the yearly electric power-generating master plan, which has a greatly influence upon relevant sub-plans successively. In this paper, we analyze the past 22-year hourly maximum electric load data available from KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and select necessary data from the raw data for our model in order to reflect more recent trends and seasonal components, which hopefully result in a better forecasting model in terms of forecasted errors. After analyzing the selected data, we recommend to KEPCO the Winters' multiplicative model with decomposition and exponential smoothing technique among many candidate forecasting models and provide forecasts for the electric power consumptions and their 95% confidence intervals up to December of 1999. It turns out that the relative errors of our forecasts over the twelve actual load data are ranged between 0.1% and 6.6% and that the average relative error is only 3.3%. These results indicate that our model, which was accepted as the first statistical forecasting model for monthly maximum power consumption, is very suitable to KEPCO.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.162-164
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• 2005

This paper presents an hour-ahead System Marginal Price (SMP) forecasting framework based on a neural network. Recently, the deregulation in power industries has impacted on the power system operational problems. The bidding strategy of market participants in energy market is highly dependent on the short-term price levels. Therefore, short-term SMP forecasting is a very important issue to market participants to maximize their profits. and to market operator who may wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense. The proposed hybrid neural network is composed of tow parts. First part of this scheme is pattern classification to input data using Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and the second part is SMP forecasting using back-propagation neural network that has three layers. This paper compares the forecasting results using classified input data and unclassified input data. The proposed technique is trained, validated and tested with historical date of Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2002.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권8호
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• pp.953-963
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• 2013

Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. Forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using statistical methods based on hydrometeorological data. Predictors which is used to forecast seasonal inflow to Andong dam are selected from southern oscillation index, sea surface temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height data in northern hemisphere. Predictors are selected by the following procedure. Primary predictors sets are obtained, and then final predictors are determined from the sets. The primary predictor sets for each season are identified using cross correlation and mutual information. The final predictors are identified using partial cross correlation and partial mutual information. In each season, there are three selected predictors. The values are determined using bootstrapping technique considering a specific significance level for predictor selection. Seasonal inflow forecasting is performed by multiple linear regression analysis using the selected predictors for each season, and the results of forecast using cross validation are assessed. Multiple linear regression analysis is performed using SAS. The results of multiple linear regression analysis are assessed by mean squared error and mean absolute error. And contingency table is established and assessed by Heidke skill score. The assessment reveals that the forecasts by multiple linear regression analysis are better than the reference forecasts.

• 한국의류산업학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.480-490
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• 2021

Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. For apparel retailers, accurate sales forecast for the next season is critical to properly manage inventory and plan their supply chains. The challenge in this increases because apparel products are always new for the next season, have numerous variations, short life cycles, long lead times, and seasonal trends. In this study, a sales forecasting model is proposed for apparel products using machine learning techniques. The sales data pertaining to outerwear items for four years were collected from a Korean sports brand and filtered with outliers. Subsequently, the data were standardized by removing the effects of exogenous variables. The sales patterns of outerwear items were clustered by applying K-means clustering, and outerwear attributes associated with the specific sales-pattern type were determined by using a decision tree classifier. Six types of sales pattern clusters were derived and classified using a hybrid model of clustering and decision tree algorithm, and finally, the relationship between outerwear attributes and sales patterns was revealed. Each sales pattern can be used to predict stock-keeping-unit-level sales based on item attributes.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권8호
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• pp.5256-5262
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• 2014

최근 국가기관, 언론사, 금융권 등에 대하여 분산 서비스 거부(Distributed Denial of Service, DDoS) 공격, 악성코드 유포 등 무차별 사이버테러가 발생하고 있다. DDoS 공격은 네트워크 계층에서의 대역폭 소모를 주된 공격 방법으로 정상적인 사용자와 크게 다르지 않는 패킷을 이용하여 공격을 하기 때문에 탐지 및 대응이 어렵다. 이러한 인터넷 비정상적인 트래픽이 증가하여 네트워크의 안전성 및 신뢰성을 위협하고 있어 비정상 트래픽에 대한 발생 징후를 사전에 탐지하여 대응할 수 있는 방안의 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 비정상 트래픽 탐지 기법에 대한 현황 및 문제점을 분석하고, 예측방법인 추세 모형, 지수평활법, 웨이브렛 분석 방법 등을 비교 분석하여 인터넷 트래픽의 특성을 실시간으로 분석 및 예측이 가능한 가장 적합한 예측 모형을 이용한 탐지 방법을 제안하고자 한다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.19-23
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• 1973

The method of forecasting advection fog at Busan area in July is developed using the Spreen's scatter-diagraam technique. The used Parameters are (1) air temperature (2) dew-point temperature, (3) sea surface temperature (4) resultantt wind direction (5) resultant wind speed in Busan. The skill score and the pcr cent correct based on 4 yeare of dependent data are 0.79 and 90.3% respectively.