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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2014.32.6.600

Forecasting the Korea's Port Container Volumes With SARIMA Model  

Min, Kyung-Chang (International Logistics Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute)
Ha, Hun-Koo (Graduate School of Logistics, Inha University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.32, no.6, 2014 , pp. 600-614 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper develops a model to forecast container volumes of all Korean seaports using a Seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) technique with the quarterly data from the year of 1994 to 2010. In order to verify forecasting accuracy of the SARIMA model, this paper compares the predicted volumes resulted from the SARIMA model with the actual volumes. Also, the forecasted volumes of the SARIMA model is compared to those of an ARIMA model to demonstrate the superiority as a forecasting model. The results showed the SARIMA Model has a high level of forecasting accuracy and is superior to the ARIMA model in terms of estimation accuracy. Most of the previous research regarding the container-volume forecasting of seaports have been focussed on long-term forecasting with mainly monthly and yearly volume data. Therefore, this paper suggests a new methodology that forecasts shot-term demand with quarterly container volumes and demonstrates the superiority of the SARIMA model as a forecasting methodology.
Keywords
ARIMA; container volume forecasting; container volume through sea port; demand forecasting; seasonal ARIMA(SARIMA); seasonal unit-root test; unit-root test;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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