• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1998.11a
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• pp.292-294
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• 1998

It is very important for electric utility to expand generating facilities and transmission equipments in accordance with the increase of electricity demand. Regional electricity demand forecasting is among the most important step for long-term investment and power supply planning. The main objectives of this paper are to develop the methodologies for forecasting regional load demand. The Model consists of four models, regional economy, regional electricity energy demand, areal electricity energy demand. and areal peak load demand. This paper mainly suggests regional electricity energy demand model and areal peak load demand. A case study is also presented.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.445-465
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• 2020

This paper presents a study conducted with the aim of developing a model of tendering based on a technique of artificial intelligence by managing and controlling the factors of success or failure of construction projects through the evaluation of the process of invitation to tender. Aiming to solve this problem, analysis of the current environment based on SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) is first carried out. Analysis was evaluated through a case study of the construction projects in Algeria, to bring about the internal and external factors which affect the process of invitation to tender related to the construction projects. This paper aims to develop a mean to identify threats-opportunities and strength-weaknesses related to the environment of various national construction projects, leading to the decision on whether to continue the project or not. Following a SWOT analysis, novel artificial intelligence models in forecasting the project status are proposed. The basic principal consists in interconnecting the different factors to model this phenomenon. An artificial neural network model is first proposed, followed by a model based on fuzzy logic. A third model resulting from the combination of the two previous ones is developed as a hybrid model. A simulation study is carried out to assess performance of the three models showing that the hybrid model is better suited in forecasting the construction project status than RNN (recurrent neural network) and FL (fuzzy logic) models.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.63-72
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• 1994

The objective of the study is to develop weather generators for daily rainfall and small pan evaporation and to test the applicability with recorded data. Daily rainfall forecasting model(DRFM) was developed that uses a first order Markov chain to describe rainfall seque- nces and applies an incomplete Gamma function to predict the amount of precipitation. Daily evaporation forecasting model(DEFM) that adopts a normal distribution function to generate the evaporation for dry and wet days was also formulated. DRFM and DEFM were tested with twenty year weather data from eleven stations using Chi-square and Kolmogorov and Smirnov goodness of fit tests. The test results showed that the generated sequences of rainfall occurrence, amount of rainfall, and pan evaporation were statistically fit to recorded data from eleven, seven, and seven stations at the 5% level of significance. Generated rainfall data from DRFM were very close in frequency distri- bution patterns to records for stations all over the country. Pan evaporation for rainy days generated were less accurate than that for dry days. And the proposed models may be used as tools to provide many mathematical models with long-term daily rainfall and small pan evaporation data. An example is an irrigation scheduling model, which will be further detailed in the paper.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.3
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• pp.393-398
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• 2015

City or Community-scale Energy Management System(CEMS) is used to reduce the total energy consumed in the city by arranging the energy resources efficiently at the planning stage and controlling them economically at the operating stage. Of the operational functions of the CEMS, generation forecasting of renewable energy resources is an essential feature for the effective supply scheduling. This is because it can develop daily operating schedules of controllable generators in the city (e.g. diesel turbine, micro-gas turbine, ESS, CHP and so on) in order to minimize the inflow of the external power supply system, considering the amount of power generated by the uncontrollable renewable energy resources. This paper is written to introduce numerical models for photo-voltaic power generation prediction based on the weather forecasting information. Unlike the conventional methods using the average radiation or average utilization rate, the proposed models are developed for CEMS applications using the realtime weather forecast information provided by the National Weather Service.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.73-83
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• 2021

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models play an essential role in predicting weather factors, but using them is challenging due to various factors. To overcome the difficulties of NWP models, deep learning models have been deployed in weather forecasting by several recent studies. This study adapts long short-term memory (LSTM), which demonstrates remarkable performance in time-series prediction. The combination of LSTM model input of meteorological features and activation functions have a significant impact on the performance therefore, the results from 5 combinations of input features and 4 activation functions are analyzed in 9 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations corresponding to cities/islands/mountains. The optimized LSTM model produces better performance within eight forecast hours than Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operated by Korean meteorological administration. Therefore, this study illustrates that this LSTM model can be usefully applied to very short-term weather forecasting, and further studies about CNN-LSTM model with 2-D spatial convolution neural network (CNN) coupled in LSTM are required for improvement.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.47-56
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• 2021

Purpose: Maritime sector is fundamental to international trade; there is no doubt that seafarers have played an essential role in maritime shipping and distribution science industry. Thus, this study uses Grey models to predict the number of seafarers in Vietnam expecting to provide a range of future seafarers. Research design, data and methodology: Statistics data are adopted for numbers of seafarers by Vietnam Maritime Administration categorizing into three types: Officers at Management level, Officers at Operational level and Navigation - Engine officer cadet. Results: The results have showed that a lack of qualified seafarers in the distribution industry, which has become a global issue and Vietnam is facing challenges of providing enough supply of seafarers in the next few years. Since there has been a concern of the unbalance between demand and supply of seafarers, researches in maritime sector needs a high accuracy in forecasting the number of available qualified seafarers in Vietnam. Conclusion: This method can be applied to predict numbers of other human resources in transportation, distribution and/or logistics industries when the information is poor and insufficient. The next few years are predicted to witness a downtrend in sailors - oilers which leads to the fact that the total number of available seafarers is decreased.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.723-734
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• 2021

Wind energy is one of the rapidly developing renewable energies which is being developed and invested in response to climate change. As renewable energy policies and power plant installations are promoted, the supply of wind power in Korea is gradually expanding and attempts to accurately predict demand are expanding. In this paper, the ARIMA and ARIMAX models which are Time series techniques and the SVR, Random Forest and XGBoost models which are machine learning models were compared and analyzed to predict wind power generation in the Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk regions. Mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as indicators to compare the predicted results of the model. After subtracting the hourly raw data from January 1, 2018 to October 24, 2020, the model was trained to predict wind power generation for 168 hours from October 25, 2020 to October 31, 2020. As a result of comparing the predictive power of the models, the Random Forest and XGBoost models showed the best performance in the order of Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk. In future research, we will try not only machine learning models but also forecasting wind power generation based on data mining techniques that have been actively researched recently.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.357-368
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• 2014

Since its birth in 1993, fuzzy time series have seen different classes of models designed and applied, such as fuzzy logic relation and rule-based models. These models have both advantages and disadvantages. The major drawbacks with these two classes of models are the difficulties encountered in identification and analysis of the model. Therefore, there is a strong need to explore new alternatives and this is the objective of this paper. By transforming a fuzzy number to a real number via integrating the inverse of the membership function, new autoregressive models can be developed to fit the observation values of a fuzzy time series. With the new models, the issues of model identification and parameter estimation can be addressed; and trends, seasonalities and multivariate fuzzy time series could also be modeled with ease. In addition, asymptotic behaviors of fuzzy time series can be inspected by means of characteristic equations.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.18
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• pp.321-337
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• 1992

Fashions are constantly subject to change, so that forecasting trends in fashion is very difficult and the forecasting is very important. The reason is that forecasting is identifying a hot trend for the next days' business and projecting the future. The purpose of this study is to suggest the realistic forecasting theory identify fashion trends at present, further forecast fashion trends to 1995. For this study, historical models (th historical resurrection model, the historical continuity model) and the art movement model among the behavioral science models which was suggested in 1986 by Geoge B.Sproles were selected. According to this study, was exhibited. This curve was resulted from relation between 1980s fashion trends and the behavioral science models of fashion. Fashion trends to 1995 through will be followings; 1. Body Conscious look as one of the characteristics of modern fashion will bi continued throughout 1990s' fashion trends. 2. The attraction of Mini style was started from the middle of 1980s, recently gets near micro mini and super shouts, These are representative of the historical continuity model. 3. Mini look as revivals of '60s in early 1990s fashion trends. This phenomenon identifies that "Fashion is repetition" 4. When Mini look and super shorts reach, will not progress any more. In this time, will bi seen transfer of style be using classic style. Tat is modern classic will be appeared. also this condition is same from late 1960s to early 1970s. In view of the historical base, the action of the varieted pants will be prominent. 5. Fashion trends which passed through this process will transfer from young look to elegant look. In this time, designers will retrospect '30s and '50s fashion trends, and then will design modern feminine look. 6. Ethnic look, the fashion trend after that condition will be accelated feminine look. This look with the feminine look will reveal rich, colorful, elegance feminine image. 7. In 1980s, activity and function in clothes were demanded. The clothes which are considered these condition will be demanded continuously. 8. The variety of fashion will appear as mixmode and new coordinate look in a clothes simultaneously in fashion of '90s. And these looks will creat mixed beauty. 9. Pop art, op art, graphic art will be not only development of textile but also movement of fashion soul in 1990s. The fashion behavior will be continuously scientificated.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.45-55
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• 1986

This study proposes the explanatory indices of urban traffic for the purpose of solving the ambiguity of selection of the explanatory variables, which always raises problems in case of the travel-demand forecasting in the urban transportation planning, and develops optimal urban traffic generation models. The multiple regression models for objective traffic generation are developed by using the proposed explanatory inidces. Objective variables that can be explained by one explanatory variable are modified into simple regression type (Y=bX) in order to ensure the nonnegativity of traffic generation. Similarities are noted in the generaton characteristics of generated traffic from homogeneous land-use activity. Objective variables that can not be explained by multiple variable, such as trip attraction of school and trip generation of social-recreation, are classified by the characteristics of each zone. And traffic generation forecasting models are built as homogeneous zone group, the validity of each model being tested by a statistical method. It is desired that the forecasting precision is in improved by easy and simple method. Accordingly, trip generation rates are calculated from each land-use activity, and trip generation rates for practical application are proposed by considering their stability.