• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecast supply

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Experimental Comparative Analysis of Terrestrial Lidar Data and Cadastral Data for the Calculation of the Slope Area of Highland Agriculture Region (고랭지 농업지역의 경지면적 산출을 위한 지상라이다 데이터와 지적성과의 실험적 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Ho-Hyun;Lee, Jung-Il;Oh, Min-Kyun;Lee, Kyung-Do
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.137-153
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    • 2016
  • The price of agricultural products has changed from year to year, the m ajor c ause o f price fluctuation is the imbalance of supply and demand. Materials which are mainly used in korean cabbage production volume is the forecast model, using the cadastral result, slope calculation is impossible to achieved. For this reason, this implies the drastic decrease of prices and the prediction of supply and demand of field crops that is cultivated in a highland slope area, this situation is being repeated. Therefore, the target area of this research is the slopes of high land, by using 2D and 3D Lidar data for the analysis of the cultivated area. Experiment was carried out in the same area to compare the data differences. The rate of change in the area of slope is quantitatively increasing presented by the regression model. An alternative methodology that can improve the reliability of the calculated slope area using 2D is through cadastral map.

Optimal Design Of Multisite Batch-Storage Network under Scenario Based Demand Uncertainty (다수의 공장을 포함하는 불확실한 수요예측하의 회분식 공정-저장조 망의 최적설계)

  • 이경범;이의수;이인범
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.537-544
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    • 2004
  • An effective methodology is reported for determining the optimal lot size of batch processing and storage networks which include uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, infernally consumed, transported to or from other sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sires while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of the global supply chain.

Efficiency and Power Factor Improvement of Induction Motor Using Single-Phase Back Rectifier (단상 강압 정류기를 이용한 유도전동기의 효율 및 역률 개선)

  • 문상필;이현우;서기영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2002
  • Usually, much harmonics are included and cause harmonic loss of motor, torque pulsation, electro-magnetic noise and shock etc. by switching function of inverter when drive induction motor variableness inside. It applied partial resonant Buck converter and three phase voltage type SPWM inverter circuit to induction motor driving system in this paper that see to solve such problem. Changed operation condition variously to do input current of circuit that propose sine-wave by unit power factor almost and capacitor supplied bringing back to life voltage by power supply arranging properly assistance diode and electric power switching. Power factor and efficiency improved as that minimize variation of input at power supply voltage polarity reverse by that add voltage reversal function. Also, by using output filter, reduced harmonic of output line to line voltage components, and introduce state space analysis and forecast operation of rectifier. Such all items confirmed validity through simulation and an experiment.

Water Quality Prediction and Forecast of Pollution Source in Namgang Mid-watershed each Reduction Scenario (남강중권역 오염부하 전망 및 삭감 시나리오별 하류 수질예측)

  • Yu, Jae Jeong;Shin, Suk Ho;Yoon, Young Sam;Kang, Doo Kee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.543-552
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    • 2012
  • Namgang mid-watershed is located in downstream of Nakdong river basin. There are many pollution sources arround this area and it's control is important to manage a water quality of Nakdong river. A target year of Namgang mid-watershed water environment management plan is 2013. To predict a water quality at downstream of Namgang, we have investigated and forecasted the pollutant source and it's loading. There are some plan to construction the sewage treatment plants to improve the water quality of Nam river. Those are considered on predicting water quality. As results, it is shown that the population is 343,326 and sewerage supply rate is 79.2% and the livestock is 1,662,000 in Namgang mid-watershed. It is estimated that the population is 333,980, the sewerage supply rate is 86.9% in 2013. The milk cow and cattle were estimated upward and the pigs were downward by 2013. The generated loading of BOD and TP is 75,957 kg/day and 4,311 kg/day, discharged loading is 18,481 kg/day and 988 kg/day respectively in 2006. It were predicted upward the discharged loading of BOD and TP by 4.08% and 6.3% respectively. The results of water quality prediction of Namgang4 site were 2.5 mg/L of BOD and 0.120 mg/L of TP in 2013. It is over the target water quality at that site in 2015 about 25.0% and 9.1% respectively. Consequently, there need another counterplan to reduce the pollutants in that mid-watershed.

A Development of Time-Series Model for City Gas Demand Forecasting (도시가스 수요량 예측을 위한 시계열 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Bo-Seung;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Kyung-Yun;Han, Sang-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.1019-1032
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    • 2009
  • The city gas demand data has strong seasonality. Thus, the seasonality factor is the majority for the development of forecasting model for city gas supply amounts. Also, real city gas demand amounts can be affected by other factors; weekday effect, holiday effect, the number of validity day, and the number of consumptions. We examined the degree of effective power of these factors for the city gas demand and proposed a time-series model for efficient forecasting of city gas supply. We utilize the liner regression model with autoregressive regression errors and we have excellent forecasting results using real data.

A Study on Typical Rates of Water-use for Primary School, Middle School and High School Facilities (초.중.고등학교 시설의 급수 사용량에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyu-Saeng
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.802-807
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    • 2008
  • A Study on Typical Rates of Water-use for School Facilities has been carried out in this work. Water supply system is given much weight in school facilities. Therefore, it set up a basis efficiency using of water sources to calculate typical rates of water use. The results are summarized as follows; 1) On the whole, typical rates of water-use was founded out 15 L/stu. d in pirmary school, 10 L/stu. d in middle school and 30 L/stu. d in high school smaller than the existing it. It was rate of water-use change as season and Max. Rates of water-use was July. 2) I deem that school hours are 5 hour's in primary school, 7 hour's in middle school and 8 hour's in high school. It the concept of 1 hour that is lesson time 40 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in primary school, lesson time 45 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in middle school and lesson time 50 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in high school. 3) It is desired that we calculate the volume of pump and water tank throughout this concept and the size of water tank should be 1.5 times with taking peak load into consideration by this study on typical rate of water-use. 4) The amount of using water increases in gradually and I consider the life cycle of facilities is more than 10 years. As a result, I can forecast that the size will be insufficiency but I deem that if we devise a plan about parallel pumping on water tank space, we can cope with it. Also, it is expected that we can cut back the transport energy by controlling pump volume.

The Probabilistic Drought Forecast Based on Ensemble Technique by Improvement of the Modified Surface Water Supply Index : Focusing on Nakdong-river Basin (Modified Surface Water Supply Index 개선을 통한 앙상블 기법 기반 확률론적 가뭄전망 : 낙동강유역을 중심으로)

  • Jo, Jun Won;Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Jang, Suk-Hwan;Oh, Ji Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.152-152
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    • 2017
  • 최근 지속적인 심한 가뭄의 발생은 사회적 이슈가 되고 있으므로 가뭄을 감시할 수 있는 가뭄 모니터링 뿐만 아니라 경감할 수 있는 가뭄전망이 되어야 한다. 이를 위해 우선적으로 우리나라 실정에 맞는 최적화된 가뭄지수의 선정 혹은 개선이 필요하며, 다음으로 개선된 가뭄지수를 기반으로 한 다양한 가뭄정보들이 수자원확보를 위한 관리와 정책에 활용되어야 한다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 국내 기존에 활용되고 있는 수문학적 가뭄지수인 MSWSI를 개선하였으며, 개선된 MSWSI를 이용하여 앙상블기법 기반의 확률론적 가뭄전망을 수행하였다. 대상 유역은 낙동강 유역을 선정하였으며, 연구내용을 살펴보면, 첫 번째로 MSWSI의 개선에 있어서는 (1) 유역 내 공식적으로 수집되는 모든 수문기상인자를 조사하여 중권역 유역별로 기존 MSWSI에서 적용한 4개 인자(강수량, 하천유량, 댐 유입량, 지하수량) 뿐만 아니라 사용 가능한 적합한 인자(댐 저수위, 댐 방류량)를 추가 선정하여 반영; (2) 각 수문인자들에 대해 기존에는 정규분포만 적용하였으나 본 연구에서는 각각 인자별 적합한 확률분포를 추정하였다. 두 번째로 극심한 가뭄이 발생한 2006년과 2014년을 대상으로 개선된 MSWSI를 이용한 앙상블기반 확률론적 가뭄전망을 수행하고 검증하였다. 분석 결과를 살펴보면, 개선된 MSWSI를 과거 실측 수문기상자료를 이용하여 검증한 결과 기존 MSWSI보다 개선된 MSWSI가 과거 발생한 가뭄현상을 더 잘 나타내어 개선된 MSWSI가 효용성이 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 앙상블 기반의 확률론적 가뭄 전망 결과, 기존보다 개선된 MSWSI를 이용한 가뭄전망이 우수한 결과를 나타냈다. 또한 대부분의 유역에서 실제 가뭄의 가뭄지수가 개선된 MSWSI를 이용한 가뭄전망 범위에 속하는 것으로 나타났다.

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Comparison of Power Consumption Prediction Scheme Based on Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 기반 전력량예측 기법의 비교)

  • Lee, Dong-Gu;Sun, Young-Ghyu;Kim, Soo-Hyun;Sim, Issac;Hwang, Yu-Min;Kim, Jin-Young
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2019
  • Recently, demand forecasting techniques have been actively studied due to interest in stable power supply with surging power demand, and increase in spread of smart meters that enable real-time power measurement. In this study, we proceeded the deep learning prediction model experiments which learns actual measured power usage data of home and outputs the forecasting result. And we proceeded pre-processing with moving average method. The predicted value made by the model is evaluated with the actual measured data. Through this forecasting, it is possible to lower the power supply reserve ratio and reduce the waste of the unused power. In this paper, we conducted experiments on three types of networks: Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and we evaluate the results of each scheme. Evaluation is conducted with following method: MSE(Mean Squared Error) method and MAE(Mean Absolute Error).

A Study on Proper Harbor Pilot Demand Estimation for ensuring Port Competitiveness in Korea (우리나라 항만경쟁력 확보를 위한 적정 도선사 수요산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Goun;Jeon, Yeong-Woo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.564-570
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    • 2020
  • In order to propose a realistic demand forecast for harbor pilots, define a direction for securing a supply of pilots for the betterment of national logistic services, and ensure the competitiveness of Korean ports, this study intended first to propose a new forecasting process for harbor pilot requirements through conducting analysis of determining factors affecting harbor pilot demand. Additionally, analyzing relevant previous studies allowed us to estimate the number of pilots required in the past and asses the studies limitations. Our second purpose was to propose a more stable allocation method among different pilot areas after forecasting the demand of harbor pilots until 2027 through application of the new forecasting process. From this application, the total number of pilots required was forecasted at 270, suggesting the total demand for harbor pilots will be increased by 7.57% compared with 251 pilots in 2018.

Comparative Analysis of Solar Power Generation Prediction AI Model DNN-RNN (태양광 발전량 예측 인공지능 DNN-RNN 모델 비교분석)

  • Hong, Jeong-Jo;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2022
  • In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the main culprit of global warming, the United Nations signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992. Korea is also pursuing a policy to expand the supply of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of renewable energy development using solar power led to the expansion of wind power and solar power generation. The expansion of renewable energy development, which is greatly affected by weather conditions, is creating difficulties in managing the supply and demand of the power system. To solve this problem, the power brokerage market was introduced. Therefore, in order to participate in the power brokerage market, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generation. In this paper, the prediction system was used to analyze the Yonchuk solar power plant. As a result of applying solar insolation from on-site (Model 1) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (Model 2), it was confirmed that accuracy of Model 2 was 3% higher. As a result of comparative analysis of the DNN and RNN models, it was confirmed that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model improved by 1.72%.