• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.187-204
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• 2013

This study analyzed the synoptic distribution and vertical structure about four cases of precipitation occurrences using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and upper level data of winter intensive observation to be performed by National Institute of Meteorological Research at Bukgangneung, Incheon, Boseong during 63days from 4 JAN to 6 MAR in 2012, and Observing System Experiment (OSE) using 3DVAR-WRF system was conducted to examine the precipitation predictability of upper level data at western and southern coastal regions. The synoptic characteristics of selected precipitation occurrences were investigated as causes for 1) rainfall events with effect of moisture convergence owing to low pressure passing through south sea on 19 JAN, 2) snowfall events due to moisture inflowing from yellow sea with propagation of Siberian high pressure after low pressure passage over middle northern region on 31 JAN, 3) rainfall event with effect of weak pressure trough in west low and east high pressure system on 25 FEB, 4) rainfall event due to moisture inflow according to low pressures over Bohai bay and south eastern sea on 5 MAR. However, it is identified that vertical structure of atmosphere had different characteristics with heavy rainfall system in summer. Firstly, depth of convection was narrow due to absence of moisture convergence and strong ascending air current in middle layer. Secondly, warm air advection by veering wind with height only existed in low layer. Thirdly, unstable layer was limited in the narrow depth due to low surface temperature although it formed, and also values of instability indices were not high. Fourthly, total water vapor amounts containing into atmosphere was small due to low temperature distribution so that precipitable water vapor could be little amounts. As result of OSE conducting with upper level data of Incheon and Boseong station, 12 hours accumulated precipitation distributions of control experiment and experiments with additional upper level data were similar with ones of observation data at 610 stations. Although Equitable Threat Scores (ETS) were different according to cases and thresholds, it was verified positive influence of upper level data for precipitation predictability as resulting with high improvement rates of 33.3% in experiment with upper level data of Incheon (INC_EXP), 85.7% in experiment with upper level data of Boseong (BOS_EXP), and 142.9% in experiment with upper level data of both Incheon and Boseong (INC_BOS_EXP) about accumulated precipitation more than 5 mm / 12 hours on 31 January 2012.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

Recently the large scale of forest disaster such as landslide and forest fire gives a very bad impact on not only forest ecosystem but also farm business so that it has became the main issue of environmental problems. In this study, the landslide hazard area forecast method was developed by considering not only the topographic thematic maps based on GIS and satellite images but also amount of rainfall data, which are very important factors of landslide. Uljin-gun was selected as the study area and the GIS weight score and overlay analysis were applied to topographical map and meteorological observation map. Finally the landslide area distribution map was constructed by considering the evaluation criteria. Also, the accuracy could be acquired by comparing the landslide hazard area forecast map and real damaged area extracted from satellite image.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.451-466
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• 2010

This edition has continued since 2006 tropical cyclone season our effort to provide standard tropical cyclone summaries by the western North Pacific basin and detailed reviews of operationally or meteorologically significant tropical cyclones to document significant challenges and shortfalls in the tropical cyclone warning system to serve as a focal point for research and development efforts. The tropical cyclone season of 2009 in the western North Pacific basin is summarized and the main characteristics of general atmospheric circulation are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified. The total number is less than 59-year (1951~2009) average frequency of 26.4. The 2009 western North Pacific season was an inactive one, in which 22 tropical storms generated. Of these, 13 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 9 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and six TS storms. On average of 22 TCs in 2009, the Korea Meteorological Administration official track forecast error for 48 hours was 219 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0902 CHAN-HOM, 0909 ETAU, and 0920 LUPIT resulting in significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. There was no tropical cyclone causing significant direct impact to the country. The tropical cyclone season in 2009 began in May with the formation of KUJIRA (0901). In September and October, ten TSs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to July. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2009 summertime. Year 2009 has continued the below normal condition since mid 1990s which is apparent in the decadal variability in TC activity.

• Atmosphere
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.359-370
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• 2006

Terrain height variance spectra for the Korean mountain region are calculated in order to determine an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing on mesoscale model simulation. One-dimensional spectral analysis is applied to specifically the central-eastern part of the Korean mountain region, where topographical-scale forcing has an important effect on mesoscale atmospheric flow. It is found that the terrain height variance spectra in this mountain region has a wavelength dependence with the power law exponents of 1.5 at the wavelength near 30 km, but this dependence is steeply changed to 2.5 at the wavelength less than 30 km. For the adequate horizontal grid size selection on mesoscale simulation two-dimensional terrain height spectral analysis is also performed. There is no directionality within 50% of spectral energy region, so one-dimensional spectral analysis can be reasonably applied to the Korea Peninsula. According to the spectral analysis of terrain height variance, the finer grid size which is higher than 6 km is required to resolve a 90% of terrain variance in this region. Numerical simulation using WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) was performed to evaluate the effect of different terrain resolution in accordance with the result of spectral analysis. The simulated results were quantitatively compared to observations and there was a significant improvement in the wind prediction across the mountain region as the grid space decreased from 18 km to 2 km. The results will provide useful guidance of grid size selection on mesoscale topographical simulation over the Korean mountain region.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

Input uncertainty is one of the major sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. In this paper, first, three alternate rainfall inputs generated by different interpolation schemes were used to see the impact on a distributed watershed model. Later, the residuals of precipitation interpolations were tested as a source of ensemble streamflow generation in two river basins in the U.S. Using the Monte Carlo parameter search, the relationship between input and parameter uncertainty was also categorized to see sensitivity of the parameters to input differences. This analysis is useful not only to find the parameters that need more attention but also to transfer parameters calibrated for station measurement to the simulation using different inputs such as downscaled data from weather generator outputs. Input ensembles that preserves local statistical characteristics are used to generate streamflow ensembles hindcast, and showed that the ensemble sets are capturing the observed steamflow properly. This procedure is especially important to consider input uncertainties in the simulation of streamflow forecast.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.461-472
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• 2021

Yeongdong has frequently suffered from severe snowstorms, which generally give rise to societal and economic damages to the region in winter. In order to understand its mechanism, there has been a long-term measurement campaign, based on the rawinsonde measurements for every snowfall event at Gangneung since 2014. The previous observations showed that a typical heavy snowfall is generally accompanied with northerly or northeasterly flow below the snow clouds, generated by cold air outbreak over the relatively warmer East Sea. An intensive and multi-institutional measurement campaign has been launched in 2019 mainly in collaboration with Gangwon Regional Office of Meteorology and National Institute of Meteorological Studies of Korean Meteorological Administration, with a special emphasis on winter snowfall and spring windstorm altogether. The experiment spanned largely from February to April with comprehensive measurements of frequent rawinsonde measurements at a super site (Gangneung) with continuous remote sensings of wind profiler, microwave radiometers and weather radar etc. Additional measurements were added to the campaign, such as aircraft dropsonde measurements and shipboard rawinsonde soundings. One of the fruitful outcomes is, so far, to identify a couple of cold air damming occurrences, featuring lowest temperature below 1 km, which hamper the convergence zone and snow clouds from penetrating inland, and eventually make it harder to forecast snowfall in terms of its location and timing. This kind of comprehensive observation campaign with continuous remote sensings and intensive additional measurement platforms should be conducted to understand various orographic precipitation in the complex terrain like Yeongdong.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.8-14
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• 2020

The human impact of particulate matter are revealed and demand for improved forecast accuracy is increasing. Recently, efforts is made to improve the accuracy of PM10 predictions by using machine learning, but prediction performance is decreasing due to the particulate matter data with a large rate of low concentration occurrence. In this paper, separation prediction model by concentration is proposed to improve the accuracy of PM10 particulate matter forecast. The low and high concentration prediction model was designed using the weather and air pollution factors in Cheonan, and the performance comparison with the prediction models was performed. As a result of experiments with RMSE, MAPE, correlation coefficient, and AQI accuracy, it was confirmed that the predictive performance was improved, and that 20.62% of the AQI high-concentration prediction performance was improved.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.30 no.12
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• pp.1053-1065
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• 2021

In this study, the prediction technology of Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was improved by optimizing the weather predictors used as input data for machine learning. Results comparison was conducted using bias and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which are predictive accuracy verification indicators, based on the heavy rain case on August 21, 2021. By comparing the rainfall simulated using the improved HQPF and the observed accumulated rainfall, it was revealed that all HQPFs (conventional HQPF and improved HQPF 1 and HQPF 2) showed a decrease in rainfall as the lead time increased for the entire grid region. Hence, the difference from the observed rainfall increased. In the accumulated rainfall evaluation due to the reduction of input factors, compared to the existing HQPF, improved HQPF 1 and 2 predicted a larger accumulated rainfall. Furthermore, HQPF 2 used the lowest number of input factors and simulated more accumulated rainfall than that projected by conventional HQPF and HQPF 1. By improving the performance of conventional machine learning despite using lesser variables, the preprocessing period and model execution time can be reduced, thereby contributing to model optimization. As an additional advanced method of HQPF 1 and 2 mentioned above, a simulated analysis of the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) ensemble member and low pressure, one of the observed meteorological factors, was analyzed. Based on the results of this study, if we select for the positively performing ensemble members based on the heavy rain characteristics of Korea or apply additional weights differently for each ensemble member, the prediction accuracy is expected to increase.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.63-63
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• 2022

기상 예보자료는 발생 가능한 재난의 예방 및 대비 차원에서 매우 중요한 자료로 활용되고 있다. 우리나라 기상청에서는 동네예보를 통해 5km 공간해상도의 1시간 간격 초단기예보와, 6시간 간격 정량강우예보(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, QPF)의 단기예보 정보를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 예보자료는 강우량의 시·공간변화가 큰 집중호우와 같은 기상자료를 활용한 수문학적인 해석에는 한계가 있다. 예보자료를 수문학에 활용하기 위한 시·공간적 해상도 개선뿐만 아니라 방대한 기상 및 기후 자료의 예측성능을 개선하기 위한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상청이 제공하는 지역 앙상블 예측 시스템(Local ENsemble prediction System, LENS)와 종관기상관측시스템(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측시스템(AWS) 관측 데이터 및 동네예보에 기계학습 방법을 적용하여 수문학적 정량적 강수량 예측(Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, HQPF) 정보를 생산하였다. 전처리 과정을 통해 모든 데이터의 시간해상도와 공간해상도를 동일한 해상도로 변환하였으며, 예측 변수의 인자 분석을 통해 기계학습의 예측 변수를 도출하였다. 기계학습 방법으로는 처리속도와 확장성을 고려하여 XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting) 방식을 적용하였으며, 집중호우에서의 예측정확도를 높이기 위해 확률매칭(PM) 방식을 적용하였다. 생산된 HQPF의 성능을 평가하기 위해 2020년에 발생한 14건의 호우 사상을 대상으로 태풍형과 비태풍형으로 구분하여 검증을 수행하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.167-174
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• 2009

The AIRWARE System was developed from one of the EUREKA PROJECT E!3266-EUROENVIRON WEBAIR System. The AIRWARE can nowcast and forecast the air quality of Seoul and Gyeonggi-do regions. To nowcast and forecast concentration of pollutants, MM5, AERMOD/CAMx, and SMOKE Models were used for each meteorologic data, measured data, and emission data. All DB were constructed for 2001 year. The episode analysis and time series analysis were accomplished to analyze the AIRWARE reliability. The simulated results were very well agreed with measured result for measured pollutants and meteorological data. The developed AIRWARE system can analyze with real-time, support web-based air quality information. This information can used with policy data to manage the air quality and prepare reduction plan in air impact assessment or air environmental plan.