• Title/Summary/Keyword: flood frequency analysis

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Effect of Areal Mean Rainfall Estimation Technique and Rainfall-Runoff Models on Flood Simulation in Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) Basin (면적 강우량 산정 기법과 강우-유출 모형이 삼척오십천 유역의 홍수 모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyeonji;Shin, Youngsub;Kang, Dongho;Kim, Byungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • In terms of flood management, it is necessary to analyze quantitative rainfall and runoff from a spatial and temporal perspective and to analyze runoff for heavy rainfall events that are concentrated within a short period of time. The simulation and analysis results of rainfall-runoff models vary depending on the type and input data. In particular, rainfall data is an important factor, so calculating areal mean rainfall is very important. In this study, the areal mean rainfall of the Samcheok Osipcheon(Riv.) watersheds located in the mountainous terrain was calculated using the Arithmetic Mean Method, Thiessen's Weighting Method, and the Isohyetal Method, and the rainfall-runoff results were compared by applying the distributional model S-RAT and the lumped model HEC-HMS. The results of the temporal transferability study showed that the combination of the distributional model and the Isohyetal Method had the best statistical performance with MAE of 64.62 m3/s, RMSE of 82.47 m3/s, and R2 and NSE of 0.9383 and 0.8547, respectively. It is considered that this study was properly analyzed because the peak flood volume occurrence time of the observed and simulated flows is within 1 hour. Therefore, the results of this study can be used for frequency analysis in the future, which can be used to improve the accuracy of simulating peak flood volume and peak flood occurrence time in mountainous watersheds with steep slopes.

Regional Frequency Analysis for Rainfall Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 일강우량의 지역빈도해석)

  • Song, Chang Woo;Kim, Yon Soo;Kang, Na Rae;Lee, Dong Ryul;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2013
  • Global warming and climate change have influence on abnormal weather pattern and the rainstorm has a localized and intensive tendency in Korea. IPCC(2007) also reported the rainstorm and typhoon will be more and more stronger due to temperature increase during the 21st century. Flood Estimation Handbook(Institute of Hydrology, 1999) published in United Kingdom, in the case that the data period is shorter than return period, recommends the regional frequency analysis rather than point frequency analysis. This study uses Regional Climate Model(RCM) of Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) for obtaining the rainfall and for performing the regional frequency analysis. We used the rainfall data from 58 stations managed by KMA and used L-moment algorithm suggested by Hosking and wallis(1993) for the regional frequency analysis considering the climate change. As the results, in most stations, the rainfall amounts in frequencies have an increasing tendency except for some stations. According to the A1B scenario, design rainfall is increased by 7~10% compared with the reference period(1970-2010).

Variation of design flood according to the temporal resolution and periods of rainfall (강우의 시간해상도와 자료기간에 따른 설계홍수량의 변동성)

  • Kim, Min-Seok;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.599-606
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    • 2018
  • Most hydrological analysis such as probability rainfall and rainfall time distributions have typically carried out based on hourly rainfall and rainfall - runoff analysis have carried out by applying different periods of rainfall time distribution and probability rainfall. In this study, to quantify the change of design flood due to the data type (hourly and minutely rainfall data) and the probability rainfall and application of different data period to the rainfall time distribution, probability rainfall is calculated by point frequency analysis according to data type and period and rainfall time distribution was calculated by Huff's quartile distributions. In addition, the change analysis of design flood was carried out by rainfall - runoff analysis applying different data periods of design rainfall time distribution. and probability rainfall. As a result, rainfall analysis using minute rainfall data was more accurate and effective than using hourly rainfall data. And the design flood calculated by applying different data period of rainfall time distribution and probability rainfall made a large difference than by applying different data type. It is expected that this will contribute to the hydrological analysis using minutely rainfall.

Analysis of change characteristics through estimating the limit rainfall by period (기간별 한계강우량 산정을 통한 변화 특성 분석)

  • Hwang, Jeong Geun;Cho, Jae Woong;Kang, Ho Seon;Lee, Han Seung;Moon, Hye Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.99-99
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    • 2020
  • The frequency and scale of domestic flood damage continues to increase, but the criteria for responding to flood damage have not been established. To this end, research is underway to estimate the amount of rainfall in each region so that it can be used to respond to flood damage. The limit rainfall is defined as the cumulative maximum rainfall for each duration that causes flooding, and this research purpose to improve the threshold rainfall by estimating the damage based on the damage history in units of 5 years and analyzing changes over time. The limit rainfall based on the damage history was estimated by using the NDMS past damage history of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety and the rainfall minutes data of AWS and ASOS. The period for estimating the limit rainfall is 2013 ~ 2017, 2015 ~ 2019, and the limit rainfall is estimated by analyzing the relationship between the flood damage history and the rainfall event in each period. Considering changes in watershed characteristics and disaster prevention performance, the data were compared using 5-year data. As a result of the analysis, the limit rainfall based on the damage history could be estimated for less than about 10.0% of the administrative dongs nationwide. As a result of comparing the limit rainfall by period, it was confirmed that the area where the limit rainfall has increased or decreased This was analyzed as a change due to rainfall events or urbanization, and it is judged that it will be possible to improve the risk criteria of flooding.

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An Integrated Flood Simulation System for Upstream and Downstream of the Agricultural Reservoir Watershed (농촌 유역 저수지 상·하류 통합 홍수 모의 시스템 구축 및 적용)

  • Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Jihye;Lee, Hyunji;Lee, Junhyuk;Cho, Jaepil;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2023
  • To utilize the hydraulic and hydrological models when simulating floods in agricultural watersheds, it is necessary to consider agricultural reservoirs, farmland, and farmland drainage system, which are characteristics of agricultural watersheds. However, most of them are developed individually by different researchers, also, each model has a different simulation scope, so it is hard to use them integrally. As a result, there is a need to link each hydraulic and hydrological model. Therefore, this study established an integrated flood simulation system for the comprehensive flood simulation of agricultural reservoir watersheds. The system can be applied easily to various watersheds because historical weather data and the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) climate change scenario database of ninety weather stations were built-in. Individual hydraulic and hydrological models were coded and coupled through Python. The system consists of multiplicative random cascade model, Clark unit hydrograph model, frequency analysis model, HEC-5 (Hydrologic Engineering Center-5), HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System), and farmland drainage simulation model. In the case of external models with limitations in conceptualization, such as HEC-5 and HEC-RAS, the python interpreter approaches the operating system and gives commands to run the models. All models except two are built based on the logical concept.

A Study on the Dong-eup Reservoir Stage Computation by Probabilistic Inflows (확률홍수량 유입에 따른 동읍유수지 홍수위 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Yoon, Sung-Yoon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2001
  • The objective of this study is to provide the results of frequency analysis for Dong-eup reservoir, in which the environmental and ecological roles in addition to the water supply and flood control capacity of the reservoir are increased rapidly. The suggested results are the frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data based on eight different rainfall duration data at Masan and Milyang raingauge stations. We also provide the probabilistic inflows from subbasins and evaluate the stage increases of the reservoir. As results, the 24-hour and 100-year return period rainfall is 291.8 mm and consequently inflows are 361.79 cms for Junam, 192.57 for Sannam and 408.28 for Dongpan reservoirs. The 24-hour and 100-year return period reservoir stages are expected as 5.08 m, 5.51 m and 6.89 m depending on the initial reservoir stage. The suggested results of frequency analysis of rainfalls, inflows and reservoir stages in this study will be useful for the scientific and systematic management of the reservoir.

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A study on the Evaluation for the Design Flood of Ungauged Small River Basins (미계측 중소하천의 계획홍수량산정에 관한 연구)

  • 침순보;안보훈
    • Water for future
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 1976
  • This paper presents a hydrologic method of probabilistic design flood calculation for ungauged small river basins. It is based on the study and analysis of the physiographic characteristics of the river basin for which stream flow records may not be available. Rainfall data is used at nearby station which has the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relations. Musim cheon, second tributary of the Guem river, is selected for the sample study. Design floods for the stream reaches are computed by the Rational formula, the runoff coefficients being determined with the physiographic data such as soil type, land use and vepetal covers. Derived unit hydrograph at conneted main river basin is used to compute the peak flood discharge. Kajiyama formula and modified Kajiyama formula are used to calculated the most probable maximum flood discharge. The result of this study shows that synthesized unit hydrograph method is more accurate and applicable way to com pute design flood for ungauged small river basins.

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Changes of Fluvial Hydraulic Characteristics due to the Semi-Convering Work of Urban Stream (도시하천의 부분복개화에 의한 하천수리특성치의 변화)

  • Chang, In-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to derive the optimal methodology estimating the changes of fluvial hydraulic characteristics due to semi-covering work of urban stream. First, after collecting the data of the daily maximum rainfall of Chungju gaging station, the frequency analysis was carried out with frequency factor method, which includes normal, two-parameter and three-parameter lognormal, Gumbel-Chow, pearson type III, log-pearson type III distribution, and the goodness of fit test was executed by $x^2$-test and Kormogorov-Smimov test. Using the SCS method, the effective rainfall was estimated and the peak flow was calculated by the area-routing method. The HEC-2 model was applied to calculate water surface profiles for steady, gradually varied flow at Kyohyun river system in Chungju city. The model was applied to floodplain and riverbed management to evaluate flood way encroachments and to delineate flood hazard by riverside roadway construction. The model also was used to evaluate effects on water surface profiles of river improvement and levees as well as the presence of bridges or other hydraulic structures in the floodplain.

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Study on the Flow Characteristics at Natural Curved Channel by 2D and 3D Models (2·3차원 모형을 이용한 자연하도 만곡부에서의 흐름특성 연구)

  • Ahn, Seung-Seop;Jung, Do-Joon;Lee, Sang-Il;Kim, Wi-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.471-478
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the flow characteristic analysis at the curved-channel of the actual channel section is compared and reviewed using the 2D RMA-2 model and the 3D FLOW-3D model. the curve section with curve rate 1.044 in the research section is analyzed applying the frequency of he project flood of 100 years. According to the result, the issue for the application of the FLOW-3D Model's three-dimensional numeric analysis result to the actual river is found to be reviewed with caution. Also, application of the 3D model to the wide basin's flood characteristic is determined to be somewhat risky. But, the applicability to the hydraulic property analysis of a partial channel section and the impact analysis and forecast of hydraulic structure is presumed to be high. In addition, if the parameters to reflect the vegetation of basin and the actual channel, more accurate topological measurement data and the topological data with high closeness to the current status are provided, the result with higher reliability is considered to be drawn.

The Assessment of Various Index Flood Models for Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis (비정상성 지역빈도해석을 위한 홍수지수법의 형태에 따른 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Sunghun;Joo, Kyungwon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.80-80
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    • 2017
  • 최근 수문자료에 비정상성이 관측됨에 따라 비정상성 지역빈도해석에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 홍수지수법 (index flood method)은 지역빈도해석에서 가장 널리 사용되는 방법으로 각 지점의 특성을 반영하는 홍수지수 (index flood)와 지역적 특성을 대표하는 성장곡선 (growth curve)을 통해 확률수문량을 산정하며, 비정상성 지역빈도해석의 경우 홍수지수법 내의 요소들을 시간에 대한 함수로 정의함으로써 비정상성을 반영한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 형태의 비정상성 홍수지수법을 통해 비정상성 지역빈도해석을 수행하고 각 방법에 따른 성능을 비교하였다. 이를 위해 경향성을 가지는 매개변수를 포함하는 비정상성 분포형을 모분포로 가지는 자료를 생성하였으며, 이를 기반으로 다양한 경향성을 가지는 자료들로 지역을 구성하였다. 구성된 지역에 대해 동질성 검토를 수행하여 비정상성 자료들이 포함된 지역의 동질성을 확인하였으며, Monte Carlo 모의실험을 통해 각 비정상성 홍수지수모형에 대한 확률수문량의 RRMSE와 RBIAS를 산정하여 성능을 평가하였다.

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