• 제목/요약/키워드: flood forecasting

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Parameter Calibration of Storage Function Model and Flood Forecasting (1) Calibration Methods and Evaluation of Simulated Flood Hydrograph (저류함수모형의 매개변수 보정과 홍수예측 (1) 보정 방법론과 모의 홍수수문곡선의 평가)

  • Song, Jae Hyun;Kim, Hung Soo;Hong, Il Pyo;Kim, Sang Ug
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제26권1B호
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2006
  • The storage function model (SFM) has been used for the flood forecasting in Korea. The SFM has a simple calculation process and it is known that the model is more reasonable than linear model because it considers non-linearity of flood runoff. However, the determination of parameters is very difficult. In general, the trial and error method which is an manual calibration by the decision of a model manager. This study calibrated the parameters by the trial and error method and optimization technique. The calibrated parameters were compared with the representative parameters which are used in the Flood Control Centers in Korea. Also, the evaluation indexes on objective functions and calibration methods for the comparative analysis of simulation efficiency. As a result, the Genetic Algorithm showed the smallest variation in objective functions and, in this study, it is known that the objective function of SSR (Sum of Squared of Residual) is the best one for the flood forecasting.

Development of Decision Support System for Flood Forecasting and Warning in Urban Stream (도시하천의 홍수예·경보를 위한 의사결정지원시스템 개발)

  • Yi, Jaeeung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제28권6B호
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    • pp.743-750
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    • 2008
  • Due to unusual climate change and global warming, drought and flood happen frequently not only in Korea but also in all over the world. It leads to the serious damages and injuries in urban areas as well as rural areas. Since the concentration time is short and the flood flows increase urgently in urban stream basin, the chances of damages become large once heavy storm occurs. A decision support system for flood forecasting and warning in urban stream is developed as an alternative to alleviate the damages from heavy storm. It consists of model base management system based on ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System), database management system with real time data building capability and user friendly dialog generation and management system. Applying the system to the Tanceon river basin, it can forecast and warn the stream flows from the heavy storm in real time and alleviate the damages.

A Flood Damage Preventation and Permanent Restoration Method (수해 예방과 항구적인 복구 방안)

  • 구본충
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.94-99
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    • 1999
  • Recently, flood damage is rapidly increasing because of warming of globe, urbanization and industrialization. As a countermeasure to prevent these flood damages, it is quite required to extend the flood control ability by improving the objective rivers in the watershed and building more medium to large scale reserviors. Simultaneously repairing and rehabilitation of facilities through the safety diagnosis for reinforcement of the facilities should be continuously proceeded. Also extensive implementation of drainage improvement, establishment of prevention and refairing system against flood damage and raise of accuracy of weather forecasting should be proceeded.

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Real-time Flood Stage Forecasting of Tributary Junctions in Namhan River (남한강 지류 합류부의 실시간 홍수위 예측)

  • Kim, Sang Ho;Hyun, Jin Sub;Kim, Ji-Sung;Jun, Kyung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제47권6호
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    • pp.561-572
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    • 2014
  • The backwater effect at a tributary junction increases the risk of flood damage such as inundation and levee overflow. In particular, the rapid increase in water level may cause injury to persons. The purpose of this research is the development of the real-time flood forecasting technique as a part of the non-structural flood damage reduction measures. To this end, the factors causing a water level rising at a junction were examined, and the empirical formula for predicting flood level at a junction was developed using the calculated discharge and water level data from the well-constructed hydraulic model. The water level predictions show that average absolute error is about 0.2~0.3m with the maximum error of 1.0m and peak time can be captured prior to 0~5 hr. From the results of this study, the real-time flood forecasting system of a tributary junction can be easily constructed, and this system is expected to be utilized for reduction of flood inundation damage.

A Forecasting Model for the Flood Peak Stage and Flood Travel Time by Hydraulic Flood Routing

  • Yoon, Yong-Nam;Park, Moo-Jong
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • 제4권
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 1993
  • The peak flood discharge at a downstream station and the flood travel time between a pair of dams due to a specific flood release from the upper reservoir are computed using a hydraulic river channel routing method. The study covered the whole large reservoir system in the Han River, Korea. The computed flood discharges and the travel times between dams were correlated with the duration and the magnitude of flood release rate at the upstream reservoir, and hence a multiple regression model is proposed for each river reach between a pair of dams. The peak flood discharge at a downstream location can be converted to the peak flood stage by a rating curve. Hence, the proposed regression model could be used to forecast the peak flood stage at a downstream location and the flood travel time between dams using the information on the flood travel time, release rate and duration from the upper dam.

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A Hydrologic Prediction of Streamflows for Flood forecasting and Warning System (홍수 예경보를 위한 하천유출의 수문학적 예측)

  • 서병하;강관원
    • Water for future
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 1985
  • The methods for hydrologic prediction of streamflows for more efficient and functional operations and automation of the flood warning and forecasting system have been studiedand which have been widely used in the control engineering have been studied and investigated for representation of the dynamic behavior of rainfall-runoff precesses, and formulated into mathematical model form. The applicabilities of the model using the adaptive Kalman filter algorithm to the on-line, real-time prediction of river flows have been worked out. The computer programs in FORTRAN which are developed here can be utilized for more efficient operations and better prediction abilities of flood warning and forecasting systems, and also should be modified for better model performance.

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Computerized Decision Support System for Real-time Flood Forecasting and Reservoir Control (홍수시(洪水時) 저수지(貯水池) 실시간(實時間) 운영(運營) 의사결정(意思決定) 지원(支援) 시스템)

  • Ko, Seok Ku;Lee, Han Goo;Lee, Hee Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.131-140
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    • 1992
  • For a real-time flood forecasting and reservoir control problem of a multipurpose dam, the online acquisition of hydro-meteorological data and computerized analysis of the acquired data are absolutely necessary for the prompt decision of reservoir discharges which can minimize the possible damages and simultaneously maximize the utilization of the runoff. By introducing a man-machine interface such as condensed color graphics of the analyzed results, it is much easier and faster to transform the information to the decision maker who can decide the reservoir discharge. The newly developed PC-REFCON, which represents the PC based real-time flood forecasting and reservoir control, can easily handle the above problems by adopting a innovative decision support system. The system has three principal components of, a data base subsystem which acquires and manages real-time data, a model subsystem which forecasts the flood runoff and simulates the reservoir operation, and a dialogue subsystem which helps decision maker and system engineers using various graphics and tables with renovative methodologies. The developed PC-REFCON will be utilized from the coming Summer of 1992 for the flood control of all the nine multipurpose reservoirs in Korea.

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