• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.217-225
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• 2019

We apply a modified Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model in conjunction with transfer learning to predict whether an active region (AR) would produce a ≥C-class or ≥M-class flare within the next 24 hours. We collect line-of-sight magnetogram samples of ARs provided by the SHARP from May 2010 to September 2018, which is a new data product from the HMI onboard the SDO. Based on these AR samples, we adopt the approach of shuffle-and-split cross-validation (CV) to build a database that includes 10 separate data sets. Each of the 10 data sets is segregated by NOAA AR number into a training and a testing data set. After training, validating, and testing our model, we compare the results with previous studies using predictive performance metrics, with a focus on the true skill statistic (TSS). The main results from this study are summarized as follows. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the CNN model with transfer learning is used in solar physics to make binary class predictions for both ≥C-class and ≥M-class flares, without manually engineered features extracted from the observational data. Second, our model achieves relatively high scores of TSS = 0.640±0.075 and TSS = 0.526±0.052 for ≥M-class prediction and ≥C-class prediction, respectively, which is comparable to that of previous models. Third, our model also obtains quite good scores in five other metrics for both ≥C-class and ≥M-class flare prediction. Our results demonstrate that our modified CNN model with transfer learning is an effective method for flare forecasting with reasonable prediction performance.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.25 no.5A
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• pp.763-771
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• 2000

Reticle systems, which are widely used in infrared (IR) missile seekers, are considered to be the classical approach for estimating the position of a target in the field of view (FOV). This paper presents an effective simulation tool that gives tracking results of the concentric annular ring reticle seeker. We construct the concentric annular ring reticle seeker on Matlab-Simulink for a dynamic simulation. Our simulation model provides tracking results in various cases, and is applicable to the study of the development of the advanced seekers. While false targets such as flares are presented in the FOV, simulation results show that the existing seeker cannot determine a precise target location. In order to decrease the susceptibility to countermeasures such as flares, we propose an efficient counter-countermeasure using the correlated relationship of modulated signals and the references. We have ascertained that the reticle seeker using our technique make more effective target tracking than previous seekers.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.171-177
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• 2004

X-ray plasma ejections often occurred around the impulsive phases of solar flares and have been well observed by the SXT aboard Yohkoh. Though the X-ray plasma ejections show various morphological shapes, there has been no attempt at classifying the morphological groups for a large sample of the X-ray plasma ejections. In this study, we have classified 137 X-ray plasma ejections according to their shape for the first time. Our classification criteria are as follows: (1) a loop type shows ejecting plasma with the shape of loops, (2) a spray type has a continuous stream of plasma without showing any typical shape, (3) a jet type shows collimated motions of plasma, (4) a confined ejection shows limited motions of plasma near a flaring site. As a result, we classified the flare-associated X-ray plasma ejections into five groups as follows: loop-type (60 events), spray-type (40 events), jet-type (11 events), confined ejection (18 events), and others (8 events). As an illustration, we presented time sequence images of several typical events to discuss their morphological characteristics, speed, CME association, and magnetic field configuration. We found that the jet-type events tend to have higher speeds and better association with CMEs than those of the loop-type events. It is also found that the CME association (11/11) of the jet-type events is much higher than that (5/18) of the confined ejections. These facts imply that the physical characteristics of the X-ray plasma ejections are closely associated with magnetic field configurations near the reconnection regions.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.97.1-97.1
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• 2011

In this study we have examined the probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending on flare (flux, longitude and impulsive time) and CME parameters (linear speed, longitude, and angular width). For this we used the NOAA SPE list and their associated flare data from 1976 to 2006 and CME data from 1997 to 2006. We find that about 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with SPEs. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The SPE probability with long duration (${\geq}$ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). In case of halo CMEs with V ${\geq}$ 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in case of partial halo CME ($120^{\circ}$ ${\leq}$ AW < $360^{\circ}$) with 400 km/s ${\leq}$ V < 1000 km/s, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. The relationships between X-ray flare peak flux and SPE peak flux are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. The relationships between CME speed and SPE peak flux depend on longitude as well as direction parameter. From this study, we suggest a new SPE forecast method with three-steps: (1) SPE occurrence probability prediction according to the probability tables depending on flare and CME parameters, (2) SPE flux prediction from the relationship between SPE flux and flare (or CME) parameters, and (3) SPE peak time.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.47-51
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• 2015

Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) in cosmic ray intensity observed during the period of 1997-2012 have been studied with energetic solar features and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters and it is seen that all the GLEs have been found to be associated with coronal mass ejections, hard X-ray solar flares and solar radio bursts. All the GLEs have also been found to be associated with sudden jumps in solar proton flux of energy of ${\geq}60Mev$. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.48 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax%) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar proton flux of energy (${\geq}60Mev$). All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma velocity (JSWV) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.43 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma velocity of associated (JSWV) events. All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma pressure (JSWP) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.67 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events and of 0.68 between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the magnitude of the jump in solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.240.2-240.2
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• 2012

AGN(Active Galactic Nucleus) consists of a supermassive black hole located at its center, an accretion disk around the black hole, and bipolar jets. Since May 2011, we have performed the MOGABA(Monitoring Of GAmma-ray Bright AGN) project for observing gamma-ray bright AGN once a week at multifrequencies using KVN(Korean VLBI Network) 21m radio telescopes. The MOGABA project is the observations for measuring the degree of polarization, polarization angle, and total flux of about 20 AGN at 22, 43 and 86GHz. By this project, we are able to investigate polarization characteristics, spectral index, and variation of rotation measure at radio wavelengths of gamma-ray bright AGN and to study possible relation between gamma-ray flares and magnetic field structure change in AGN. According to previous research, gamma-ray flares of some AGN are coincident with large changes in angle of linear polarization. In this paper we report the preliminary results of linear polarization and total flux at 22, 43, 86GHz of gamma-ray bright quasars 3C279 and 1510-089 showing noticeable variation of total flux at 22GHz in late 2011, and discuss possible correlation with gamma ray light curves.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.123.2-123.2
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• 2012

We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive eleven sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.42.1-42.1
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• 2021

In this study, we present a visual explanation of a deep learning solar flare forecast model and its relationship to physical parameters of solar active regions (ARs). For this, we use full-disk magnetograms at 00:00 UT from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, physical parameters from the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flare data. Our deep learning flare forecast model based on the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) predicts "Yes" or "No" for the daily occurrence of C-, M-, and X-class flares. We interpret the model using two CNN attribution methods (guided backpropagation and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping [Grad-CAM]) that provide quantitative information on explaining the model. We find that our deep learning flare forecasting model is intimately related to AR physical properties that have also been distinguished in previous studies as holding significant predictive ability. Major results of this study are as follows. First, we successfully apply our deep learning models to the forecast of daily solar flare occurrence with TSS = 0.65, without any preprocessing to extract features from data. Second, using the attribution methods, we find that the polarity inversion line is an important feature for the deep learning flare forecasting model. Third, the ARs with high Grad-CAM values produce more flares than those with low Grad-CAM values. Fourth, nine SHARP parameters such as total unsigned vertical current, total unsigned current helicity, total unsigned flux, and total photospheric magnetic free energy density are well correlated with Grad-CAM values.

• The Journal of Pediatrics of Korean Medicine
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.12-19
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• 2012

Objectives The purpose of this study is to report the clinical effects of an oriental medical treatment on the patient with allergic purpura. Methods A 7-year-old female patient, who was suffering from the purpura on her extremities: swelling and arthralgia on her lower extremities, was treated by herb medicine, acupuncture and pediluvium. Results Treated only with oriental medicine, the patient's allergic symptoms were improved. When we checked back on her condition after 2 months later, she did not show any recurrence of the flares, and regained her health. Conclusions This study shows that oriental medical treatments are effective on allergic purpura, but further clinical studies are needed.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.60.1-60.1
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• 2013

We study tidal disruption and subsequent mass fallback process for stars approaching supermassive black holes on bound orbits, by performing three dimensional Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics simulations with a pseudo-Newtonian potential. We find that the mass fallback rate decays with the expected -5/3 power of time for parabolic orbits, albeit with a slight deviation due to the self-gravity of the stellar debris. For eccentric orbits, however, there is a critical value of the orbital eccentricity, significantly below which all of the stellar debris is bound to the supermassive black hole. All the mass therefore falls back to the supermassive black hole in a much shorter time than in the standard, parabolic case. The resultant mass fallback rate considerably exceeds the Eddington accretion rate and substantially differs from the -5/3 power of time. We also show that general relativistic precession is crucial for accretion disk formation via circularization of stellar debris from stars on moderately eccentric orbits.