Empirical Forecast of Solar Proton Events based on Flare and CME Parameters

In this study we have examined the probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending on flare (flux, longitude and impulsive time) and CME parameters (linear speed, longitude, and angular width). For this we used the NOAA SPE list and their associated flare data from 1976 to 2006 and CME data from 1997 to 2006. We find that about 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with SPEs. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The SPE probability with long duration (${\geq}$ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). In case of halo CMEs with V ${\geq}$ 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in case of partial halo CME ($120^{\circ}$ ${\leq}$ AW < $360^{\circ}$) with 400 km/s ${\leq}$ V < 1000 km/s, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. The relationships between X-ray flare peak flux and SPE peak flux are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. The relationships between CME speed and SPE peak flux depend on longitude as well as direction parameter. From this study, we suggest a new SPE forecast method with three-steps: (1) SPE occurrence probability prediction according to the probability tables depending on flare and CME parameters, (2) SPE flux prediction from the relationship between SPE flux and flare (or CME) parameters, and (3) SPE peak time.