• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.53 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

The recent study of Chae et al. (2017) found a one-to-one correspondence between plasma blobs outflowing along a ray formed after a coronal mass ejection (CME) and small X-ray flares. In the present work, we have examined the spatial configuration and the eruption process of the flares that are associated with the blobs by analyzing EUV images and magnetograms taken by the SDO/AIA and HMI. We found that the main flare and the successive small flares took place in a quadrupolar magnetic configuration characterized by predominant magnetic fields of positive polarity, two minor magnetic fragments of negative polarity, and a curved polarity inversion line between them, which suggests that the formation process of the blobs may be similar to that of the parent CME. We also found that the successive flares resulted in a gradual change of the quadrupolar magnetic configuration, and the relevant migration of flaring kernels. The three-dimensional geometry and the property of the current sheet, that is often supposed to be embedded in an observed post-CME ray, seem to keep changing because of mutual feedback between the successive flares and the temporal change of the magnetic field configuration. Our results suggest that the observed post-CME rays may not reflect the characteristics of the current sheet responsible for the impulsive phase of the flare.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.129.2-129.2
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• 2012

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are two major solar eruptive phenomena which can cause enormous economic and commercial losses: (1) flares are sudden, rapid, and intense brightenings from radio waves to Gamma-rays in the chromosphere and corona, and (2) CMEs are large-scale transient eruptions of magnetized plasma from the solar corona that propagate outward into interplanetary space. Most flares and CMEs occur in magnetically complicated solar active regions (ARs). Therefore, it is crucial to investigate magnetic fields in ARs and their temporal variations for understanding a precondition and a trigger mechanism related to flare/CME initiation. In this presentation, we will introduce an automated system for empirical forecasting of flares and CMEs in ARs using full-disk photospheric line-of-sight magnetogram data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the SDO.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.spc1
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• pp.37-44
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• 2003

In this paper, we review recent studies on the magnetic helicity changes of solar active regions by photospheric horizontal motions. Recently, Chae(200l) developed a methodology to determine the magnetic helicity change rate via photospheric horizontal motions. We have applied this methodology to four cases: (1) NOAA AR 8100 which has a series of homologous X-ray flares, (2) three active regions which have four eruptive major X-ray flares, (3) NOAA AR 9236 which has three eruptive X-class flares, and (4) NOAA AR 8668 in which a large filament was under formation. As a result, we have found several interesting results. First, the rate of magnetic helicity injection strongly depends on an active region and its evolution. Its mean rate ranges from 4 to $17 {\times} 10^{40}\;Mx^2\;h^{-1}$. Especially when the homologous flares occurred and when the filament was formed, significant rates of magnetic helicity were continuously deposited in the corona via photospheric shear flows. Second, there is a strong positive correlation between the magnetic helicity accumulated during the flaring time interval of the homologous flares in AR 8100 and the GOES X-ray flux integrated over the flaring time. This indicates that the occurrence of a series of homologous flares is physically related to the accumulation of magnetic helicity in the corona by photospheric shearing motions. Third, impulsive helicity variations took place near the flaring times of some strong flares. These impulsive variations whose time scales are less than one hour are attributed to localized velocity kernels around the polarity inversion line. Fourth, considering the filament eruption associated with an X1.8 flare started about 10 minutes before the impulsive variation of the helicity change rate, we suggest that the impulsive helicity variation is not a cause of the eruptive solar flare but its result. Finally, we discuss the physical implications on these results and our future plans.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.64.3-64.3
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• 2015

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models for strong flares using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux and weighted total flux of previous day, and mean flare rates of McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc) and Mount Wilson magnetic classification. For a training data set, we use the same number of 61 events for each C-, M-, and X-class from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 2004, while other previous models use all flares. For a testing data set, we use all flares from Jan. 2005 to Nov. 2013. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are weighted total flare flux of previous day (r = 0.51), X-ray flare peak flux (r = 0.48), and Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r = 0.47). A comparison between our neural network models and the previous models based on Heidke Skill Score (HSS) shows that our model for X-class flare is much better than the models and that for M-class flares is similar to them. Since all input parameters for our models are easily available, the models can be operated steadily and automatically in near-real time for space weather service.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.295-298
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• 1996

Non-LTE calculations, with the non-thermal ionization effects included, indicated that for electron bombardment, the H$\alpha$ line is widely broadened and shows a strong central reversal. Significant enhancements at the line wings of Ly$\alpha$ and Ly$\beta$ are also predicted at the beginning of the impulsive phase of flares. For the proton bombardment, no strong broadening and no large central reversal are expected. However, due to proton-hydrogen charge exchange, the enhancements at the red wings of Ly$\alpha$ and Ly$\beta$ lines at the early impulsive phase of flares are significant. Our results show that the electron beam can also in some cases generate visible and UV continuum emission in white-light flares. However, at the onset phase, a negative flare may appear within several seconds, due to the increase of the H- opacity. Another spectroscopic signature of energetic particles, i.e. the impact polarization of atomic lines, is also mentioned.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.26.1-26.1
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• 2010

In this talk we outline the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration which generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes producing a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in a current sheet to cause shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes that affect lower atmosphere such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been develops, where numerical simulation is a strong tool in that it can reproduce the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of individual models. We introduce the general properties of flares by referring observational results, then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for a flare. We will come to a concluding viewpoint that flares are the manifestation of the recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which has been disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while rising through the convection zone.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.36.1-36.1
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• 2011

It is generally believed that eruptive phenomena in the solar atmosphere such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur in the solar active regions with complex magnetic structures. Magnetic helicity has been recognized as a useful parameter to measure the complexity such as twists, kinks, and inter-linkages of magnetic field lines. The objective of this study is to understand a long-term (a few days) variation of magnetic helicity in active regions and its relationship with the energy buildup and instability leading to flares and CMEs. Statistical studies of flare productivity and magnetic helicity injection in about 400 active regions were carried out. The temporal variation of magnetic helicity injected through the photosphere of active regions was also examined related to 46 CMEs. The main findings in this study are as follows: (1) the study of magnetic helicity for active regions producing major flares and CMEs indicates that there is always a significant helicity injection through the active-region photosphere over a long period of 0.5 - a few days before the flares and CMEs; (2) for the 30 CMEs under investigation, it is found that there is a fairly good correlation (linear correlation coefficient of 0.71) between the average helicity injection in the CME-productive active regions and the CME speed. Beside the scientific contribution, a major impact of this study is the observational discovery of a characteristic variation pattern of magnetic helicity injection in flare/CME-productive active regions which can be used for the improvement of solar eruption forecasting.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.25.1-25.1
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• 2010

This talk outlines the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration that generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes related to a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in current sheets that causes shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes which affect lower atmospheres such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been developed, in which numerical simulation is a strong tool reproducing the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of plasma before and after the onset of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of these models. We show observed properties of flares, and then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for producing a flare. We come to a concluding view that flares are the manifestation of recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which was disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while it was rising through the convection zone.