• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.34-39
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• 2003

Recent deepwater offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico utilize butt welded tubular joints. Application of a welded tubular joint includes tendons, production risers, and steel catenary risers. Fatigue life assessment of these joints becomes more critical, as the structures to which they are attached are allowed to undergo cyclic and sometimes large displacements around an anchored position. Estimation of the fatigue behavior of these tubular members in the design stage is generally condrcted by using S-N curves, as specified in the codeds and standards. Applying the stress concentration factor of the welded structure to the S-N approach often results in a very conservative assessment, because the stress field acting on the tubular has a non-uniform distribution through the thickness. Fatigue life analysis using fracture mechanics has been applied in the design of the catenary risers. This technology enables the engineer to establish proper requirements on weld quality and inspection acceptance criteria to assure satisfactory structural integrity during its design life. It also provides guidance on proper design curves and a methodology for accounting for the effects of non-uniform stress distribution through the wall thickness. Still, there is inconsistency when designing tubular joints using a conventional S-N approach and when specifying weld flaw acceptance criteria using fracture mechanics approach. This study developed fatigue curves that are consistent with both the S-N approach and the fracture mechanics approach. Accounting for non-uniform stress distribution and threshold stress intensity factor were key parameters in relating both approaches. A series of S-N curves, generated from the fracture mechanics approach, were compared to the existing S-N curves. For flat plate butt joint, the S-N curve generated from fracture mechanics matches with the IIW class 100 curve when initial crack depth was 0.5 mm (0.02 ). The new curves for tubular joint agree very well with the experimental results. The comparison also indicated the degree of conservatism built into the API X design curve.

• International Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology Speciallssue:Selected Papers
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.69-74
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• 2003

Recent deepwater offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico utilize butt welded tubular joints. Application of a welded tubular joint includes tendons, production risers, and steel catenary risers. Fatigue life assessment of these joints becomes more critical, as the structures to which they are attached are allowed to undergo cyclic and sometimes large displacements around an anchored position. Estimation of the fatigue behavior of these tubular members in the design stage is generally conducted by using S-N curves, as specified in the codes and standards. Applying the stress concentration factor of the welded structure to the S-N approach often results in a very conservative assessment, because the stress field acting on the tubular has a non-uniform distribution through the thickness. Fatigue life analysis using fracture mechanics has been applied in the design of the catenary risers. This technology enables the engineer to establish proper requirements on weld quality and inspection acceptance criteria to assure satisfactory structural integrity during its design life. It also provides guidance on proper design curves and a methodology for accounting for the effects of non-uniform stress distribution through the wall thickness. Still, there is inconsistency when designing tubular joints using a conventional S-N approach and when specifying weld flaw acceptance criteria using fracture mechanics approach. This study developed fatigue curves that are consistent with both the S-N approach and the fracture mechanics approach. Accounting for non-uniform stress distribution and threshold stress intensity factor were key parameters in relating both approaches. A series of S-N curves, generated from the fracture mechanics approach, were compared to the existing S-N curves. For flat plate butt joint, the S-N curve generated from fracture mechanics matches with the IIW class 100 curve when initial crack depth was 0.5 mm (0.02). The new curves for tubular joint agree very well with the experimental results. The comparison also indicated the degree of conservatism built into the API X design curve.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.17
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• pp.7923-7927
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• 2015

Background: The Cox PH model is one of the most significant statistical models in studying survival of patients. But, in the case of patients with long-term survival, it may not be the most appropriate. In such cases, a cure rate model seems more suitable. The purpose of this study was to determine clinical factors associated with cure rate of patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods: In order to find factors affecting cure rate (response), a non-mixed cure rate model with negative binomial distribution for latent variable was used. Variables selected were recurrence cancer, status for HER2, estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR), size of tumor, grade of cancer, stage of cancer, type of surgery, age at the diagnosis time and number of removed positive lymph nodes. All analyses were performed using PROC MCMC processes in the SAS 9.2 program. Results: The mean (SD) age of patients was equal to 48.9 (11.1) months. For these patients, 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates were 95, 79 and 50 percent respectively. All of the mentioned variables were effective in cure fraction. Kaplan-Meier curve showed cure model's use competence. Conclusions: Unlike other variables, existence of ER and PR positivity will increase probability of cure in patients. In the present study, Weibull distribution was used for the purpose of analysing survival times. Model fitness with other distributions such as log-N and log-logistic and other distributions for latent variable is recommended.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1001-1012
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• 2016

It is well known that air pollutants exert a bad influence on human health. According to the United Nations Environment Program, 4.3 million people die from carbon monoxide and particulate matter annually from all over the world. Carbon monoxide is a toxic gas that is the most dangerous of the gas consisting of carbon and oxygen. In this paper, we used 1 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, and 24 hours average carbon monoxide concentration data collected between 2004 and 2013 in Daegu Gyeongbuk area. Parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation and L-moments estimation. An evalution of goodness of fitness also was performed. Since the number of samples were small, L-moment estimation turned out to be suitable for parameter estimation. We also calculated 5 year, 10 year, 20 year, and 40 year return level.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.115-123
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• 2011

Distribution system loss minimization re-configuration is 0-1 planning problem, and the number of combinations requiring searches is extremely large when dealing with typical system scales. For this reason, the application of a genetic algorithm (GA) seems a tractive to solve this problem. Although Genetic algorithms are a type of random number search method, they incorporate a multi-point search feature and are therefore superior to one-point search techniques. The incorporate of GAs for solving large combinational problem has received wide attention. Further, parallel searching can be performed and the optimal solution is more easily reach ed. In this paper, for improving GA convergence characteristics in the distribution system loss minimization re-configuration problem, a chromosome "Limited Life" concept is introduced. Briefly, considering the population homogenization and genetic drift problems, natural selection is achieved by providing this new concept, in addition to natural selection by fitness. This is possible because individuals in a population have an age value. Simulation were carried out using a model system to check this method's validity.

• Proceedings of the KWS Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.127-132
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• 2002

Recent deepwater offshore structures in Gulf of Mexico utilize butt welded tubular joints. Application of welded tubular joint includes tendons, production risers, and steel catenary risers. Fatigue life assessment of these joints becomes more critical because the structures to which they are attached are allowed to undergo cyclic and sometimes large displacements around an anchored position. Estimating the fatigue behavior of these tubular members in the design stage is generally conducted by using S-N curves specified in the codes and standards. Applying the stress concentration factor of the welded structure to S-N approach often results in very conservative assessment because the stress field acting on the tubular has a non-uniform distribution through the thickness. Fracture mechanics and fitness for service (FFS) technology have been applied in the design of the catenary risers. This technology enables the engineer to establish proper requirements on weld quality and inspection acceptance criteria to assure satisfactory structural integrity during its design life. It also provides guidance on proper design curves to be used and a methodology for accounting for the effects of non-uniform stress distribution through the wall thickness. An attempt was made to develop set of S-N curves based on fracture mechanics approach by considering non-uniform stress distribution and a threshold stress intensity factor. Series of S-N curves generated from this approach were compared to the existing S-N curves. For flat plate butt joint, the S-N curve generated from fracture mechanics matches with the IIW class 100 curve when initial crack depth was 0.5 mm (0.02"). Similar comparison with API X′ was made for tubular joint.. These initial crack depths are larger than the limits of inspection by current Non-destructive examination (NDE) means, such as Automatic Ultrasonic Inspection (AUT). Thus a safe approach can be taken by specifying acceptance criteria that are close to limits of sizing capability of the selected NDE method. The comparison illustrates conservatism built into the S-N design curve.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.365-374
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• 2009

Probability plotting positions are used for the graphical display of annual maximum rainfall or flood series and the estimation of exceedance probability of those values. In addition, plotting positions allow a visual examination of the fitness of probability distribution provided by frequency analysis for a given data. Therefore, the graphical approach using plotting position has been applied to many fields of hydrology and water resources planning. In this study, the plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution is derived by using the order statistics and the probability weight moment of the Gumbel distribution for various sample sizes. And then, the parameters of plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution are estimated by using genetic algorithm. The appropriate plotting position formulas for the Gumbel distribution are examined by the comparison of root mean square errors and biases between theoretical reduced Gumbel variates and those calculated from derived and existing plotting position formulas. As the results, Gringorten's plotting position formula has the smaller root mean square errors and biases than any other formulas.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.85-96
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• 2011

Probability plotting position is generally used for the graphical analysis of the annual maximum quantile and the estimation of exceedance probability to display the fitness between sample and an appropriate probability distribution. In addition, it is used to apply a specific goodness of fit test. Plotting position formula to define the probability plotting position has been studied in many researches. Especially, the GEV distribution which is an important probability distribution to analyze the frequency of hydrologic data was popular. In this study, the theoretical reduced variates are derived using the mean value of order statistics to derived an appropriate plotting position formula for the GEV distribution. In addition, various forms of plotting position formula considering various sample sizes and coefficients of skewness related with shape parameters are applied. The parameters of plotting position formulas are estimated using the genetic algorithm. The accuracy of derived plotting position formula is estimated by the errors between the theoretical reduced variates and those by various plotting position formulas including the derived ones in this study. As a result, the errors by derived plotting position formula is the smallest at the range of shape parameter with -0.25~0.10.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.363-376
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• 2017

The insurance market is saturated and its growth engine is exhausted; consequently, the insurance industry is now in a low growth period with insurance companies that face a fierce competitive environment. In such a situation, it will be an important issue to find the probability distributions that can explain the flow of insurance claims, which are the basis of the actuarial calculation of the insurance product. Insurance claims are generally known to be well fitted by lognormal distributions or Pareto distributions biased to the left with a thick tail. In recent years, skew normal distributions or skew t distributions have been considered reasonable distributions for describing insurance claims. Cooray and Ananda (2005) proposed a composite lognormal-Pareto distribution that has the advantages of both lognormal and Pareto distributions and they also showed the composite distribution has a higher fitness than single distributions. In this paper, we introduce new composite distributions based on skew normal distributions or skew t distributions and apply them to Danish fire insurance claim data and US indemnity loss data to compare their performance with the other composite distributions and single distributions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.259-271
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• 2020

In Korea, snow damage has happened in the region with little snowfalls in history. Also, accidental damage was caused by heavy snow leads and the public interest on heavy snow has been increased. Therefore, policy about the Natural Disaster Reduction Comprehensive Plan has been changed to include the mitigation measures of snow damage. However, since heavy snow damage was not frequent, studies on snowfall have not been conducted on different points. The characteristics of snow data commonly are not the same as the rainfall data. Some southern coastal areas in Korea are snowless during the year. Therefore, a joint probability distribution was suggested to analyze the snow data with many 0s in a previous research and fitness from the joint probability distribution was higher than the conventional methods. In this study, snow frequency analysis was implemented using the joint probability distribution and compared to the design codes. The results were compared to the design codes. The results of this study can be used as the basic data to develop a procedure for the snow frequency analysis in the future.