• Title/Summary/Keyword: fit uncertainty

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A Computer Algorithm for the evaluation of elements in Face Stimulus Assessment (얼굴자극검사의 평가를 위한 컴퓨터 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Jong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.1961-1968
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    • 2010
  • The Face Stimulus Assessment is an efficient projective drawing test developed by Betts. This paper categorizes scales which Betts suggested into the following five groups: accuracy of painting, color fit, perception of shape, precision of drawing, and space usage. In this paper, a computer algorithm which objectively evaluates these five scales is suggested. The proposed algorithm defines the areas of the lip, eyes, hair, etc. which take on significant roles in the evaluation of the FSA and based on these factors, it calculates the grade of each scale through the main color and color ratio. The consistency of evaluations between the computer algorithm and the art therapist is measured by the Quadratic Weighted Kappa. By providing objectivity and consistency, the computer algorithm is expected to solve the problem of uncertainty found in art therapists' evaluations of projective drawing tests caused by their subjective judgment, experience, and intuition.

E-Business and Simulation

  • Park, Sung-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.9-10
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    • 2001
  • Simulation has been evolved with the advance of computer and technique of modeling application systems. Early simulations were numerical analysis of engineering models known as continuous simulation, analysis of random events using various random number generators thus named as Monte Carlo simulation, iud analysis o(\\\\`queues which are prevalent in many real world systems including manufacturing, transportation, telecommunication. Discrete-event simulation has been used far modeling and analyzing the systems with waiting lines and inefficient delays. These simulations, either discrete-event, continuous, or hybrid, have played a key role in industrial age by helping to design and implement the efficient real world systems. In the information age which has been brought up by the advent of Internet, e-business has emerged. E-business, any business using Internet, can be characterized by the network of extended enterprises---extended supply and demand chains. The extension of value chains spans far reaching scope in business functions and space globally. It also extends to the individual customer, customer preferences and behaviors, to find the best service and product fit for each individual---mass customization. Simulation should also play a key role in analyzing and evaluating the various phenomena of e-business where the phenomena can be characterized by dynamics, uncertainty, and complexity. In this tutorial, applications of simulation to e-business phenomena will be explained and illustrated. Examples are the dynamics of new economy, analysis of e-business processes, virtual manufacturing system, digital divide phenomena, etc. Partly influenced by e-business, a new trend of simulation has emerged called agent-based simulation, Agent-based simulation is a technique of simulation using software agent that have autonomy and proactivity which are useful in analyzing and integrating numerous individual customer's behavior. One particular form of agent-based simulation is swarm. This tutorial concludes with the illustration of swarm or swarm Intelligence applied to various e-business applications, and future directions and implications of this new trend of simulation.

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An Economic Evaluation under Thailand Feed in Tariff of Residential Roof Top Photovoltaic Grid Connected System with Energy Storage for Voltage Stability Improving

  • Treephak, Kasem;Saelao, Jerawan;Patcharaprakiti, Nopporn
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, Residential roof top photovoltaic system with 9.9 kW design is proposed. The system composed of 200 Watts solar array 33 panels connecting in series 10 strings and parallels 3 strings which have maximum voltage and current are 350 V and 23.8 A. The 10 kW sinusoidal grid-connected inverter with window voltage about 270-350 is selected to convert and transfer DC Power to AC Power at PCC (Point of Common Coupling) of power system following to utility standard. However the impact of fluctuation and uncertainty of weather condition of PV may decrease the voltage stability and voltage collapse of power system. In order to solve this problem the energy storage such 120 V 1200 Ah battery bank and 30 kVAR capacitor are designed for voltage stability control. The other expensed for installing the system such battery charger, cable, accessories and maintenance cost are concerned. The economic analysis by using investment from money loan with interest about 7% and use own money which loss income of deposit about 3% are calculated as 671,844 and 547,044 for PV system with energy storage and non energy storage respectively. The solar energy from PV is about 101,616 Bath per year which evaluated by using the value of $5kWh/m^2/day$ from average peak sun hour (PSH) of the Thailand and 6.96 Bath/kWh of Feed in Tariff Incentive. The payback periods of four scenarios are proposed follow as i) PV system with energy storage and use loan money is 15 years ii) PV system with no energy storage and use loan money is 10 years iii) PV system with energy storage and use deposit money is 9 years iv) PV system with energy storage and use deposit money is 7 years. In addition, the other scenarios of economic analysis such no FIT support and other type of economic analysis such NPV and IRR are proposed in this paper.

A comparative study of stochastic mortality models considering cohort effects (코호트 효과를 고려한 확률적 사망률 예측 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Soon-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.347-373
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    • 2021
  • Over the past 50 years, explorative research on the nation's mortality decline patterns has showed a decrease in age-specific mortality rates in all age groups, but there were different improvement patterns in specific mortality rates depending on ages and periods. Greater distinct improvement was observed in mortality rates among women than men, and there was a noticeable improvement in mortality rates in certain groups especially in the more recent decades, revealing a structural change in the overall trends regarding death periods. In this paper, we compare various stochastic mortality models considering cohort effects for mortality projection using Korean female mortality data and further explore the uncertainty related to projection. It also created age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy for women until 2067 based on the results of the analysis, and compared them with future age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy provided by the national statistical office (KOISIS). The best optimal model could vary depending on data usage periods. however, considering the overall fit and predictability, the PLAT model would be regarded to have appropriate predictability in terms of the mortality rates of women in South Korea.

Reliability-Based Design of Shallow Foundations Considering The Probability Distribution Types of Random Variables (확률변수의 분포특성을 고려한 얕은기초 신뢰성 설계)

  • Kim, Chang-Dong;Kim, Soo-Il;Lee, Jun-Hwan;Kim, Byung-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2008
  • Uncertainties in physical and engineering parameters for the design of shallow foundations arise from various aspects such as inherent variability and measurement error. This paper aims at investigating and reducing uncertainty from deterministic method by using the reliability-based design of shallow foundations accounting for the variation of various design parameters. A probability distribution type and statistics of random variables such as unit weight, cohesion, infernal friction angle and Young's modulus in geotechnical engineering are suggested to calculate the ultimate bearing capacities and immediate settlements of foundations. Reliability index and probability of failure are estimated based on the distribution types of random variables. Widths of foundation are calculated at target reliability index and probability of failure. It is found that application and analysis of the best-fit distribution type for each random variables are more effective than adoption of the normal distribution type in optimizing the reliability-based design of shallow foundations.

Revisiting the Z-R Relationship Using Long-term Radar Reflectivity over the Entire South Korea Region in a Bayesian Perspective

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Ho Jun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.275-275
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    • 2021
  • A fixed Z-R relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and for different seasons can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian regression framework. This study also investigates seasonal differences in the Z-R relationship and their roles in reducing systematic error. Distinct differences in the Z-R parameters in space are identified, and more importantly, an inverse relationship between the parameters is clearly identified with distinct regimes based on the seasons. A spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly parameter α for the wet season and parameter β for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Finally, the radar rainfall estimates through the calibrated Z-R relationship are compared with the existing Z-R relationships for estimating stratiform rainfall and convective rainfall. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields, whereas the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship show a systematic underestimation. The obtained Z-R relationships are validated by testing the predictions on unseen radar-gauge pairs in the year 2018, in the context of cross-validation. The cross-validation results are largely similar to those in the calibration process, suggesting that the derived Z-R relationships fit the radar-gauge pairs reasonably well.

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A Study of a Video-based Simulation Input Modeling Procedure in a Construction Equipment Assembly Line (건설기계 조립라인의 동영상 기반 시뮬레이션 입력 모델링 절차 연구)

  • Hoyoung Kim;Taehoon Lee;Bonggwon Kang;Juho Lee;Soondo Hong
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2022
  • A simulation technique can be used to analyze performance measures and support decision makings in manufacturing systems considering operational uncertainty and complexity. The simulation requires an input modeling procedure to reflect the target system's characteristics. However, data collection to build a simulation is quite limited when a target system includes manual productions with a lot of operational time such as construction equipment assembly lines. This study proposes a procedure for simulation input modeling using video data when it is difficult to collect enough input data to fit a probability distribution. We conducted a video-data analysis and specify input distributions for the simulation. Based on the proposed procedure, simulation experiments were conducted to evaluate key performance measures of the target system. We also expect that the proposed procedure may help simulation-based decision makings when obtaining input data for a simulation modeling is quite challenging.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Variations of Longitudinal Moments for a Contaminant Transport in Physically and Chemically Heterogeneous Media (물리.화학적 불균질 특성을 지닌 매질 내 오염운 이동시 보이는 종적률 변화)

  • Seo, Byong-Min;Jung, Joon-Oh;Kim, Young-Woo;Hwang, Seung-Min
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2009
  • Two dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of a non-reactive solute plume in isotropic porous media which are physically and chemically heterogeneous are conducted to determine the variations of moment. Retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 are given to ascertain how the second moments are changed as adsorption increased. Retarded longitudinal second spatial moment, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, increased during the transport process and as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased. ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$ decreased as the retardation factors increased, and the simulated moments fit well to the first-order analytical results. Retarded longitudinal plume centroid variance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, decreased as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased and as the retardation factor increased. The result indicates that the uncertainty about the plume center decreased, and the ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching. Simulated longitudinal one particle displacement covariance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t')$, well consistent with the first-order analytical results for the three degrees of retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 respectively. It is, consequently, concluded that the retarded longitudinal second moments could be produced by stochastic simulation, and that the first-order analytical results definitely provides very close values of the longitudinal retarded moments.