• Title/Summary/Keyword: fault prediction

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Early Criticality Prediction Model Using Fuzzy Classification (퍼지 분류를 이용한 초기 위험도 예측 모델)

  • Hong, Euy-Seok;Kwon, Yong-Kil
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.1401-1408
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    • 2000
  • Critical prediction models that determine whether a design entity is fault-prone or non fault-prone play an important role in reducing system development cost because the problems in early phases largely affected the quality of the late products. Real-time systems such as telecommunication system are so large that criticality prediction is more important in real-time system design. The current models are based on the technique such as discriminant analysis, neural net and classification trees. These models have some problems with analyzing cause of the prediction results and low extendability. In this paper, we propose a criticality prediction model using fuzzy rulebase constructed by genetic algorithm. This model makes it easy to analyze the cause of the result and also provides high extendability, high applicability, and no limit on the number of rules to be found.

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Extended KNN Imputation Based LOF Prediction Algorithm for Real-time Business Process Monitoring Method (실시간 비즈니스 프로세스 모니터링 방법론을 위한 확장 KNN 대체 기반 LOF 예측 알고리즘)

  • Kang, Bok-Young;Kim, Dong-Soo;Kang, Suk-Ho
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.303-317
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we propose a novel approach to fault prediction for real-time business process monitoring method using extended KNN imputation based LOF prediction. Existing rule-based approaches to process monitoring has some limitations like late alarm for fault occurrence or no indicators about real-time progress, since there exist unobserved attributes according to the monitoring phase during process executions. To improve these limitations, we propose an algorithm for LOF prediction by adopting the imputation method to assume unobserved attributes. LOF of ongoing instance is calculated by assuming next probable progresses after the monitoring phase, which is conducted during entire monitoring phases so that we can predict the abnormal termination of the ongoing instance. By visualizing the real-time progress in terms of the probability on abnormal termination, we can provide more proactive operations to opportunities or risks during the real-time monitoring.

Rotating machinery fault diagnosis method on prediction and classification of vibration signal (진동신호 특성 예측 및 분류를 통한 회전체 고장진단 방법)

  • Kim, Donghwan;Sohn, Seokman;Kim, Yeonwhan;Bae, Yongchae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.90-93
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we have developed a new fault detection method based on vibration signal for rotor machinery. Generally, many methods related to detection of rotor fault exist and more advanced methods are continuously developing past several years. However, there are some problems with existing methods. Oftentimes, the accuracy of fault detection is affected by vibration signal change due to change of operating environment since the diagnostic model for rotor machinery is built by the data obtained from the system. To settle a this problems, we build a rotor diagnostic model by using feature residual based on vibration signal. To prove the algorithm's performance, a comparison between proposed method and the most used method on the rotor machinery was conducted. The experimental results demonstrate that the new approach can enhance and keeps the accuracy of fault detection exactly although the algorithm was applied to various systems.

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Stochastic Strong Ground Motion Simulation at South Korean Metropolises' Seismic Stations Based on the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake Causative Fault (2016년 경주지진 원인단층의 시나리오 지진에 의한 국내 광역도시 지진관측소에서의 추계학적 강진동 모사)

  • Choi, Hoseon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2021
  • The stochastic method is applied to simulate strong ground motions at seismic stations of seven metropolises in South Korea, creating an earthquake scenario based on the causative fault of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake. Input parameters are established according to what has been revealed so far for the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake, while the ratio of differences in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions is assumed to be an adjustment factor. The calculations confirm the applicability and reproducibility of strong ground motion simulations based on the relatively small bias in response spectra between observed and simulated strong ground motions. Based on this result, strong ground motions by a scenario earthquake on the causative fault of the Gyeongju earthquake with moment magnitude 6.5 are simulated, assuming that the ratios of its fault length to width are 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1. The results are similar to those of the empirical Green's function method. Although actual site response factors of seismic stations should be supplemented later, the simulated strong ground motions can be used as input data for developing ground motion prediction equations and input data for calculating the design response spectra of major facilities in South Korea.

An Analysis Methodology for Probabilistic Specification and Execution Prediction for Improving of Reliability of Fault-Tolerant Real-Time Systems (내고장 실시간 시스템의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 확률 명세 및 실행 예측 분석 방법)

  • Lee, Chol;Lee, Moon-Kun
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.926-939
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    • 2002
  • The formal specification methods with probability have been demanded in the area of fault real-time systems, in order to specify the uncertainty that the systems can encounter during their execution due to various environmental factors. This paper presents a new formal method with probability. namely Probabilistic Abstract Timed Machine (PATM), in order to analyze and predict system's behavior in dynamical environmental changes, This method classifies the factors into two classes: the variable and the constant. The analysis of system's behavior is performed on the probabilistic reachability graph generated from the ATM specification for the system. The analysis can predict any possibility that the behavior may not satisfy some safety requirements of the system, indicate which variable factors cause such satisfaction, and further recover from this unsatisfying fault state by fixing the variable factors. Consequently the reliability to the fault real-time systems can be improved.

Case Study about the Ground Characteristics Analysis of Tunnel Face Fault Fractured Zone (터널막장 단층파쇄대의 지반특성 분석에 대한 사례연구)

  • Min Kyoung-Nam;Lim Kwang-Su;Jang Chang-Sik;Lim Dae-Hwan
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.15 no.2 s.55
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2005
  • The area of investigation belongs to Okchon metamorphic zone and the fault fractured zone runs parallel to the tunnel direction. It causes the independent decline of tunnel face and the slackness of the tunnel surrounding base so, after all, the severe displacement has occurred within the tunnel. Accordingly, the TSP(Tunnel Seismic Prediction) survey has been performed to investigate the extent of fault fractured zone and to analize its characteristics. Also, we have analized the behavior causes by performing the tunnel face mapping and drilling investigation, and confirmed the position and scale of geological anomaly area and front fractured zone which influences tunnel excavation and supporting. Collected data analyzed ground layer condition through 3 dimensional modeling. Several variables included in the modeling were analyzed by geostastistics. The analysis of the modeling data shows that the belt of weathering by fault fractured zone is developing on the basis of the right side of tunnel and that is decreasing to the left side. The fault fractured zone was confirmed that it has strike, $N0\~5^{\circ}E$ dip NW, and it is consisted of large-scale fractured zone including several anomalies. The severe displacement in tunnel is probably caused by asymmetrical load that n generated by the crossing of discontinuity and the rock strength imbalance of tunnel's both side by fault fractured zone, and judge that need tunnel reinforcement method of grouting etc.

An Unavailability Evaluation for a Digital Reactor Protection System (디지털 원자로보호계통 불가용도 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-Yeong;Choe, Jong-Gyun;Kim, Ji-Yeong;Yu, Jun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.81-83
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    • 2005
  • The Reactor Protection System (RPS) is a very important system in a nuclear power plant because the system shuts down the reactor to maintain the reactor core integrity and the reactor coolant system pressure boundary if the plant conditions approach the specified safety limits. This paper describes the unavailability assessment of a digital reactor protection system using the fault tree analysis technique. The fault tree technique can be expressed in terms of combinations of the basic event failures. In this paper, a prediction method of the hardware failure rate is suggested for a digital reactor protection system. and applied to the reactor protection system being developed in Korea.

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Recognition of Plasma- Induced X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy Fault Pattern Using Wavelet and Neural Network (웨이블렛과 신경망을 이용한 플라즈마-유도 X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy 고장 패턴의 인식)

  • Kim, Soo-Youn;Kim, Byung-Whan
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.135-137
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    • 2006
  • To improve device yield and throughput, faults in plasma processing equipment should be quickly and accurately diagnosed. Despite many useful information of ex-situ sensor measurements, their applications to recognize plasma faultshave not been investigated. In this study, a new technique to identify fault causes by recognizing X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) using neural network and continuous wavelet transformation (CWT). The presented technique was evaluated with the plasma etch data. A totalof 17 experiments were conducted for model construction. Model performance was investigated from the perspectives of training error, testing error, and recognition accuracy with respect to various thresholds. CWT-based BPNN models demonstrated a higher prediction accuracy of about 26%. Their advantages over pure XPS-based models were conspicuous in all three measures at small networks.

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Investigation of the Estimation of Time-Varying Voltage Sags Considering the Short Circuit Contributions of Rotating Machines (회전기의 기여에 의한 시변성의 순간전압강하 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yun Sang-Yun
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.315-322
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    • 2005
  • In this article, 1 would like to explore the estimation method of time-varying voltage sags in large industrial systems considering the short circuit contributions of rotating machines. For the power distribution system of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation), the magnitude of initial symmetrical short circuit current is generally not changed. However, in industrial systems which contain a number of rotating machines, the magnitude of voltage sag is generally changed from the initial to the clearing time of a fault due to the decreasing contribution of rotating machines for a fault current. The time-varying characteristics of voltage sags can be calculated using a short circuit analysis that is considered the time-varying fault currents. For this, the prediction formulations of time-varying voltage sags are proposed using a foreign standard. The proposed method contains the consideration of generator and motor effects. For the test of proposed formulations, a simple system of industrial consumer is used for the comparison conventional and proposed estimation method of voltage sag characteristics.

A Study on the Development of Finger Fault Diagnosis System for Industrial Robots (산업용 로보트의 손가락고장 진단시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 김병석;송수정
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.110-114
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    • 1995
  • Bacause of increasing the use in Industrial robots, the accident rate has been increasing now a days. The prediction of accident could be very hard as there are so many factors which occured accident. Removing the accident factors in industrial robots can be diagnosed by the human experts who are very familiar with in those area. The purpose of this study is a development of finger fault diagnosis system for industrial robots. We have many problems such as a long time to get the expert knowledge and the number of expert to be limited. To solve these problems lots of investment and time are required, and then the exepert system to finger fault diagnosis for industrial robots can be applied.

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