• Proceedings of the Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.139-149
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• 2002

This paper presents an approach to derive probability models for use in structural reliability studies. Two main points are made. First, that it is possible to translate engineering and physics knowledge into a requirement on the form of a probability model. And second, that making assumptions about a probability model for structural failure implies either explicit or hidden assumptions about material and structural properties. The work is foundational in nature, but is developed with explicit examples taken from planar and general stress problems, the von Mises failure criterion, and a modified Weibull distribution.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.656-662
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• 1991

endocarditis, 1.475% /pt-yr, overall valve failure, 3.319% /pt-yr; and primary tissue failure, 1.475% /pt-yr. The actuarial probability of survival was 94.3$\pm$3.6% and the probability of freedom from thromboembolism 90.6$\pm$4.6% at 11 years after surgery respectively. And, the probability of freedom from primary tissue failure was 60.4$\pm$16.9% also at 11 years The evidence of possible premature and accelerated failure of the pericardial valve in the aortic position among the young population was not clear on the age-related analysis of the structural failure, and no suggestion could be made to indicate age limit when the use of the pericardial valve would better be avoided.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

Conventional slope stability analysis is focused on calculating minimum factor of safety or maximum probability of failure. To minimize inherent uncertainty of soil properties and analytical model and to reflect various analytical models and its failure shape in slope stability analysis, slope stability analysis method considering simultaneous failure probability for multi failure mode was proposed. Linear programming recently introduced in system reliability analysis was used for calculation of simultaneous failure probability. System reliability analysis for various analytical models could be executed by this method. Optimum design to determine angle of a simple slope is executed for multi failure mode using linear programming. Because of complex consideration for various failure shapes and modes, it is possible to secure advanced safety by using simultaneous failure probability.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.2305-2311
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• 2002

The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

The quantitative risk assessment methods for thermal failure in targets were studied using fire modeling. To this end, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used and the probabilities related to thermal damage to an electrical cable were evaluated according to the change in fire area inside a specific compartment. 'The maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds' adopted in a conservative point of view and 'the probability of failure' including the time to damage were compared. The probability of failure suggested in the present study could evaluate the quantitative fire risk more realistically, compared to the maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds with the assumption that thermal damage occurred the instant the target reached its minimum failure criteria in terms of the surface temperature and heat flux.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.393-403
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• 2003

In this paper, various replacement policies for the general failure model are considered. There are two types of failure in the general failure model. One is Type I failure (minor failure) which can be removed by a minimal repair and the other is Type II failure (catastrophic failure) which can be removed only by a complete repair. In this model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure occurs with probability 1-p(t) and Type II failure occurs with probability p(t), $0{\leq}p(t){\leq}1$. Under the model, optimal replacement policies for the long-run average cost rate and the limiting efficiency are considered. Also taking the cost and the efficiency into consideration at the same time, the properties of the optimal policies under the Cost-Priority-Criterion and the Efficiency-Priority-Criterion are obtained.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.185-192
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• 2003

In this paper, the properties on the optimal replacement policies for the general failure model are developed. In the general failure model, two types of system failures may occur : one is Type I failure (minor failure) which can be removed by a minimal repair and the other, Type II failure (catastrophic failure) which can be removed only by complete repair. It is assumed that, when the unit fails, Type I failure occurs with probability 1-p and Type II failure occurs with probability p, $0\leqp\leq1$. Under the model, the system is minimally repaired for each Type I failure, and it is repaired completely at the time of the Type II failure or at its age T, whichever occurs first. We further assume that the repair times are non-negligible. It is assumed that the minimal repair times in a renewal cycle consist of a strictly increasing geometric process. Under this model, we study the properties on the optimal replacement policy minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time.

• Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.279-288
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• 1991

KIST/CARES reliability analysis program was used to calculate failure probabilities of piston pin and poppet valve. The 4-point bending test was performed on Sin/Hip Si3N4 for obtaining material parameters such as m, $\sigma$o, and KB, and the finite element analysis was performed using MSC/NASTRAN for obtaining stress distribution. The calculated failure probability of piston pin was lower than 10-6 and the failure probaility of poppet valve was greater than 0.95.

• Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.116-122
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• 1989

MOR test and concentric ring test were performed to evaluate the failure probability of sin/hip Si3N4 under uniaxial and biaxial stress state, respectively. Their failure probabilities were analized with KARA program based on Weibull PIA model and Batdorf model with 5 criteria, and they were compared with experiments. PIA model is in best accordance with experiments in higher fracture strength regions, especially for Pf 0.3. But in lower fracture strength region, none of the models predicts the failure probabilities appropriately.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1998.04a
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• pp.157-164
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• 1998

An elasto-plastic stochastic finite element method is developed to evaluate the probability of failure of the underground structure. The Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria is adopted for yield condition. The material properties such as the elastic modulus and the cohesion are assumed to be statistically independent random variables which are modeled as spatial stochastic fields. The displacements around the excavated area and the probability of the failure are examined by varying the coefficient of variance for each variables. It is found that the developed procedure can provide the proper probabilistic information about the failure of the underground structure