• Title/Summary/Keyword: failure parameters

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DGA Gases related to the Aging of Power Transformers for Asset Management

  • Kweon, Dongjin;Kim, Yonghyun;Park, Taesik;Kwak, Nohong;Hur, Yongho
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.372-378
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    • 2018
  • Life management technology is required as the failure risk of aged power transformers increases. Asset management technology is developed to evaluate the remaining life, establish the replacement strategies, and decide the optimal investment based on the reliability and economy of power transformers. The remaining life assessment uses data such as installation, operation, maintenance, refurbishment, and failure of power transformers. The optimal investment also uses data such as maintenance, outage, and social costs. To develop the asset management system for power transformers, determining the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers and evaluating the condition of power transformers using these parameters are important. In this study, since 1983, 110,000 Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) data have been analyzed to determine the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers. The alarm rates of combustible gases ($H_2$, $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_4$, $CH_4$, and $C_2H_6$), TCG, CO, and $CO_2$ were analyzed. The end of life and failure rate (bathtub curve) of power transformers were also calculated based on the failure data from 1981 to 2014. The DGA gases related to discharge, overheating, and insulation degradation were determined based on alarm and failure rates. $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_6$, and $CO_2$ were discharge, oxidation, and insulation degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers.

Cut-Through versus Cut-Out: No Easy Way to Predict How Single Lag Screw Design Cephalomedullary Nails Used for Intertrochanteric Hip Fractures Will Fail?

  • Garrett W. Esper;Nina D. Fisher;Utkarsh Anil;Abhishek Ganta;Sanjit R. Konda;Kenneth A. Egol
    • Hip & pelvis
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to compare patients in whom fixation failure occurred via cut-out (CO) or cut-through (CT) in order to determine patient factors and radiographic parameters that may be predictive of each mechanism. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study includes 18 patients with intertrochanteric (IT) hip fractures (AO/OTA classification 31A1.3) who underwent treatment using a single lag screw design intramedullary nail in whom fixation failure occurred within one year. All patients were reviewed for demographics and radiographic parameters including tip-to-apex distance (TAD), posteromedial calcar continuity, neck-shaft angle, lateral wall thickness, and others. Patients were grouped into cohorts based on the mechanism of failure, either lag screw CO or CT, and a comparison was performed. Results: No differences in demographics, injury details, fracture classifications, or radiographic parameters were observed between CO/CT cohorts. Of note, a similar rate of post-reduction TAD>25 mm (P=0.936) was observed between groups. A higher rate of DEXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) confirmed osteoporosis (25.0% vs. 60.0%) was observed in the CT group, but without significance. Conclusion: The mechanism of CT failure during intramedullary nail fixation of an IT fracture did not show an association with clinical data including patient demographics, reduction accuracy, or radiographic parameters. As reported in previous biomechanical studies, the main predictive factor for patients in whom early failure might occur via the CT effect mechanism may be related to bone quality; however, conduct of larger studies will be required in order to determine whether there is a difference in bone quality.

Equipment Failure Forecasting Based on Past Failure Performance and Development of Replacement Strategies

  • Begovic, Miroslav;Perkel, Joshua;Hartlein, Rick
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2006
  • When only partial information is available about equipment failures (installation date and amount, as well as failure and replacement rates), data on sufficiently large number of yearly populations of the components can be combined, and estimation of model parameters may be possible. The parametric models may then be used for forecasting of the system's short term future failure and for formulation of replacement strategies. We employ the Weibull distribution and show how we estimate its parameters from past failure data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is possible to assess confidence ranges of the forecasted component performance data.

Slops Stability Analysis of Carsington Dam (Carsington 댐의 사면안정 해석)

  • 손준익;안상로
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 1991.10a
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 1991
  • In this paper the failure of Carsington Dam was discussed based on the informations reported in the first edition of Korean Geotechnical Society News. The causes of dam failure and its influences were evaluated based on the results of the slope stability analysis. The effects of the shear strain pre-existing in the yellow clay disclosed by the post-failure site investigation and the progressive nature of the dam failure were preponderantly evaluated. Stability analysis was performed based on the proposed values of strength parameters characterizing possible field ground conditions at failure. The calculated safety factors were evaluated for different cases of strength parameters in order to find the most probable field ground condition at the dam failue.

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Analysis of Common Cause Failure Using Two-Step Expectation and Maximization Algorithm (2단계 EM 알고리즘을 이용한 공통원인 고장 분석)

  • Baek Jang Hyun;Seo Jae Young;Na Man Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2005
  • In the field of nuclear reactor safety study, common cause failures (CCFs) became significant contributors to system failure probability and core damage frequency in most Probabilistic risk assessments. However, it is hard to estimate the reliability of such a system, because of the dependency of components caused by CCFs. In order to analyze the system, we propose an analytic method that can find the parameters with lack of raw data. This study adopts the shock model in which the failure probability increases as the shock is cumulated. We use two-step Expectation and Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the unknown parameters. In order to verify the analysis result, we perform the simulation under same environment. This approach might be helpful to build the defensive strategy for the CCFs.

Studies on a standby repairable system with two types of failure

  • El-Damcese, M.A.;Shama, M.S.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we study the reliability analysis of a repairable system with two types of failure in which switching failures and reboot delay are considered. Let units in this system be cold standby, and failure rate and repair rate of [type1, type2] components be exponentially distributed. The expressions of reliability characteristics - such as the system reliability and the mean time to system failure MTTF - are derived. We use several cases to graphically analyze the effect of various system parameters on the system reliability and MTTF. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the reliability characteristics with changes in specific values of the system's parameters.

A Feasibility Study on the Characterization of Incipient Insulator Failure for Distribution Fault Prediction (배전선로 고장예지를 위한 애자의 고장징후 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jeong-Hoon;Kim, Tae-Won;Park, Seong-Taek;Kim, Chang-Jong
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.11a
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 1997
  • A feasibility study on the characterization of incipient insulator failure for distribution fault prediction is presented. In this study, real distribution data was collected and analyzed to isolate incipient failure signatures or parameters which were expected to show distinct behaviors before and after failure incident. Several signal analysis methods were applied to isolate the parameters and a new strategy of analysis, the event-date concept, was also applied to find a relationship between non-harmonic and high frequency signal activities and imminent insulator failures.

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Parameters estimation of the generalized linear failure rate distribution using simulated annealing algorithm

  • Sarhan, Ammar M.;Karawia, A.A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2012
  • Sarhan and Kundu (2009) introduced a new distribution named as the generalized linear failure rate distribution. This distribution generalizes several well known distributions. The probability density function of the generalized linear failure rate distribution can be right skewed or unimodal and its hazard function can be increasing, decreasing or bathtub shaped. This distribution can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in place of linear failure rate, generalized exponential and generalized Rayleigh distributions. In this paper, we apply the simulated annealing algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood point estimates of the parameters of the generalized linear failure rate distribution. Simulated annealing algorithm can not only find the global optimum; it is also less likely to fail because it is a very robust algorithm. The estimators obtained using simulated annealing algorithm have been compared with the corresponding traditional maximum likelihood estimators for their risks.

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Study on the influence of structural and ground motion uncertainties on the failure mechanism of transmission towers

  • Zhaoyang Fu;Li Tian;Xianchao Luo;Haiyang Pan;Juncai Liu;Chuncheng Liu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.311-326
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    • 2024
  • Transmission tower structures are particularly susceptible to damage and even collapse under strong seismic ground motions. Conventional seismic analyses of transmission towers are usually performed by considering only ground motion uncertainty while ignoring structural uncertainty; consequently, the performance evaluation and failure prediction may be inaccurate. In this context, the present study numerically investigates the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers by considering multiple sources of uncertainty. To this end, an existing transmission tower is chosen, and the corresponding three-dimensional finite element model is created in ABAQUS software. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the relative importance of the uncertain parameters in the seismic responses of transmission towers. The numerical results indicate that the impacts of the structural damping ratio, elastic modulus and yield strength on the seismic responses of the transmission tower are relatively large. Subsequently, a set of 20 uncertainty models are established based on random samples of various parameter combinations generated by the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. An uncertainty analysis is performed for these uncertainty models to clarify the impacts of uncertain structural factors on the seismic responses and failure mechanism (ultimate bearing capacity and failure path). The numerical results show that structural uncertainty has a significant influence on the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers; different possible failure paths exist for the uncertainty models, whereas only one exists for the deterministic model, and the ultimate bearing capacity of transmission towers is more sensitive to the variation in material parameters than that in geometrical parameters. This research is expected to provide an in-depth understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty on the seismic demand assessment of transmission towers.

Development of Model Parameter Prediction Equations for Simulating Load-deformation Response of Non-ductile RC Columns (비연성 RC 기둥의 하중-변형 응답 모사를 위한 모델 매개변수 제안)

  • Lee, Chang Seok;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2019
  • Many reinforced concrete (RC) buildings constructed prior to 1980's lack important features guaranteeing ductile response under earthquake excitation. Structural components in such buildings, especially columns, do not satisfy the reinforcement details demanded by current seismic design codes. Columns with deficient reinforcement details may suffer significant damage when subjected to cyclic lateral loads. They can also experience rapid lateral strength degradation induced by shear failure. The objective of this study is to accurately simulate the load-deformation response of RC columns experiencing shear failure. In order to do so, model parameters are calibrated to the load-deformation response of 40 RC column specimens failed in shear. Multivariate stepwise regression analyses are conducted to develop the relationship between the model parameters and physical parameters of RC column specimens. It is shown that the proposed predictive equations successfully estimated the model parameters of RC column specimens with great accuracy. The proposed equations also showed better accuracy than the existing ones.