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Analysis of Common Cause Failure Using Two-Step Expectation and Maximization Algorithm  

Baek Jang Hyun (전북대학교 산업정보시스템공학과)
Seo Jae Young (전북대학교 산업정보시스템공학과)
Na Man Gyun (조선대학교 원자력공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society / v.30, no.2, 2005 , pp. 63-71 More about this Journal
Abstract
In the field of nuclear reactor safety study, common cause failures (CCFs) became significant contributors to system failure probability and core damage frequency in most Probabilistic risk assessments. However, it is hard to estimate the reliability of such a system, because of the dependency of components caused by CCFs. In order to analyze the system, we propose an analytic method that can find the parameters with lack of raw data. This study adopts the shock model in which the failure probability increases as the shock is cumulated. We use two-step Expectation and Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the unknown parameters. In order to verify the analysis result, we perform the simulation under same environment. This approach might be helpful to build the defensive strategy for the CCFs.
Keywords
Common Cause Failure; Binomial Failure Rate; Expectation and Maximization Algorithm;
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