• Title/Summary/Keyword: extremes

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Future flood frequency analysis from the heterogeneous impacts of Tropical Cyclone and non-Tropical Cyclone rainfalls in the Nam River Basin, South Korea

  • Alcantara, Angelika;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.139-139
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    • 2021
  • Flooding events often result from extreme precipitations driven by various climate mechanisms, which are often disregarded in flood risk assessments. To bridge this gap, we propose a climate-mechanism-based flood frequency analysis that accommodates the direct linkage between the dominant climate processes and risk management decisions. Several statistical methods have been utilized in this approach including the Markov Chain analysis, K-nearest neighbor (KNN) resampling approach, and Z-score-based jittering method. After that, the impacts of climate change are associated with the modification of the transition matrix (TM) and the application of the quantile mapping approach. For this study, we have selected the Nam River Basin, South Korea, to consider the heterogeneous impacts of the two climate mechanisms, including the Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TCs. Based on our results, while both climate mechanisms have significant impacts on future flood extremes, TCs have been observed to bring more significant and immediate impacts on the flood extremes. The results in this study have proven that the proposed approach can lead to a new insights into future flooding management.

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Review of the Weather Hazard Research: Focused on Typhoon, Heavy Rain, Drought, Heat Wave, Cold Surge, Heavy Snow, and Strong Gust (위험기상 분야의 지난 연구를 뒤돌아보며: 태풍, 집중호우, 가뭄, 폭염, 한파, 강설, 강풍을 중심으로)

  • Chang-Hoi Ho;Byung-Gon Kim;Baek-Min Kim;Doo-Sun R. Park;Chang-Kyun Park;Seok-Woo Son;Jee-Hoon Jeong;Dong-Hyun Cha
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.223-246
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    • 2023
  • This paper summarized the research papers on weather extremes that occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were published in the domestic and foreign journals during 1963~2022. Weather extreme is defined as a weather phenomenon that causes serious casualty and property loss; here, it includes typhoon, heavy rain, drought, heat wave, cold surge, heavy snow, and strong gust. Based on the 2011~2020 statistics in Korea, above 80% of property loss due to all natural disasters were caused by typhoons and heavy rainfalls. However, the impact of the other weather extremes can be underestimated rather than we have actually experienced; the property loss caused by the other extremes is hard to be quantitatively counted. Particularly, as global warming becomes serious, the influence of drought and heat wave has been increasing. The damages caused by cold surges, heavy snow, and strong gust occurred over relatively local areas on short-term time scales compared to other weather hazards. In particularly, strong gust accompanied with drought may result in severe forest fires over mountainous regions. We hope that the present review paper may remind us of the importance of weather extremes that directly affect our lives.

Rainfall Variations of Temporal Characteristics of Korea Using Rainfall Indicators (강수지표를 이용한 우리나라 강수량의 시간적인 특성 변화)

  • Hong, Seong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Gyu;Lee, Won-Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2012
  • This study suggests the results of temporal and spatial variations for rainfall data in the Korean Peninsula. We got the index of the rainfall amount, frequency and extreme indices from 65 weather stations. The results could be easily understood by drawing the graph, and the Mann-Kendall trend analysis was also used to determine the tendency (up & downward/no trend) of rainfall and temperature where the trend could not be clear. Moreover, by using the FARD, frequency probability rainfalls could be calculated for 100 and 200 years and then compared each other value through the moment method, maximum likelihood method and probability weighted moments. The Average Rainfall Index (ARI) which is meant comprehensive rainfalls risk for the flood could be obtained from calculating an arithmetic mean of the RI for Amount (RIA), RI for Extreme (RIE), and RI for Frequency (RIF) and as well as the characteristics of rainfalls have been mainly classified into Amount, Extremes, and Frequency. As a result, these each Average Rainfall Indices could be increased respectively into 22.3%, 26.2%, and 5.1% for a recent decade. Since this study showed the recent climate change trend in detail, it will be useful data for the research of climate change adaptation.

Agrometeorological Early Warning System: A Service Infrastructure for Climate-Smart Agriculture (농업기상 조기경보체계: 기후변화-기상이변 대응서비스의 출발점)

  • Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.403-417
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    • 2014
  • Increased frequency of climate extremes is another face of climate change confronted by humans, resulting in catastrophic losses in agriculture. While climate extremes take place on many scales, impacts are experienced locally and mitigation tools are a function of local conditions. To address this, agrometeorological early warning systems must be place and location based, incorporating the climate, crop and land attributes at the appropriate scale. Existing services often lack site-specific information on adverse weather and countermeasures relevant to farming activities. Warnings on chronic long term effects of adverse weather or combined effects of two or more weather elements are seldom provided, either. This lecture discusses a field-specific early warning system implemented on a catchment scale agrometeorological service, by which volunteer farmers are provided with face-to-face disaster warnings along with relevant countermeasures. The products are based on core techniques such as scaling down of weather information to a field level and the crop specific risk assessment. Likelihood of a disaster is evaluated by the relative position of current risk on the standardized normal distribution from climatological normal year prepared for 840 catchments in South Korea. A validation study has begun with a 4-year plan for implementing an operational service in Seomjin River Basin, which accommodates over 60,000 farms and orchards. Diverse experiences obtained through this study will certainly be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide disaster early warning system for agricultural sector.

Estimation of the Periodic Extremes of Minimum Air Temperature Using January Mean of Daily Minimum Air Temperature in Korea (1월 일최저기온 평균을 이용한 한국의 재현기간별 일 최저기온 극값 예측)

  • Moon, Kyung Hwan;Son, In Chang;Seo, Hyeong Ho;Choi, Kyung San
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.155-160
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to develop a practical method for estimating the extremes of minimum air temperature with given return-period based on the frequency distribution of daily minimum air temperature in January. Daily temperature data were collected from 61 meteorological observatories country-wide from 1961 to 2010. Most of daily minimum temperature in January could be represented by a normal-distribution, so it is possible to predict stochastically the lowest temperature by the mean and standard deviation. We developed a quadratic function to estimate standard deviation in terms of daily minimum temperature in January. Also, we introduced a coefficient which can be used to predict an extreme of minimum temperature with mean and standard deviation, and is dependent on return-periods. Using this method, we were able to reproduce the past 30-year extremes with an error of 1.1 on average and 5.3 in the worst case.

Agrometeorological Early Warning System: A Service Infrastructure for Climate-Smart Agriculture (농업기상 조기경보시스템 설계)

  • Yun, Jin I.
    • Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.25-48
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    • 2014
  • Increased frequency of climate extremes is another face of climate change confronted by humans, resulting in catastrophic losses in agriculture. While climate extremes take place on many scales, impacts are experienced locally and mitigation tools are a function of local conditions. To address this, agrometeorological early warning systems must be place and location based, incorporating the climate, crop and land attributes at the appropriate scale. Existing services often lack site-specific information on adverse weather and countermeasures relevant to farming activities. Warnings on chronic long term effects of adverse weather or combined effects of two or more weather elements are seldom provided, either. This lecture discusses a field-specific early warning system implemented on a catchment scale agrometeorological service, by which volunteer farmers are provided with face-to-face disaster warnings along with relevant countermeasures. The products are based on core techniques such as scaling down of weather information to a field level and the crop specific risk assessment. Likelihood of a disaster is evaluated by the relative position of current risk on the standardized normal distribution from climatological normal year prepared for 840 catchments in South Korea. A validation study has begun with a 4-year plan for implementing an operational service in Seomjin River Basin, which accommodates over 60,000 farms and orchards. Diverse experiences obtained through this study will certainly be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide disaster early warning system for agricultural sector.

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A MODIFIED SOLUTION PROCEDURE FOR THE ELLIPTIC-TYPE CONDITIONAL MOMENT CLOSURE MODEL IN NONPREMIXED TURBULENT REACTING FLOW

  • Liu, Tao;Huh, Kang-Yul
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.06a
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 1997
  • The conditional moment closure formulation considering the molecular and turbulent diffusion is derived. A simplified solution procedure is proposed to reduce the computational burden due to the increased dimensionality of the conditionally averaged variables. A conditionally averaged variable is expressed as a linear weighted average of the two extremes, 'no reaction' and 'equilibrium' states. The modified elliptic-type conditional moment closure formulation is implemented to simulate a two dimensional nonpremixed mixing layer reacting flow. Results show good agreement for the conditional averages of the species concentration in Bilger et al.

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The Relationship between Mind and Body from the Perspective of Oriental Medicine (한의학에서 보는 정신과 신체의 관계)

  • Hong, Won-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 1994
  • The relationship between mind and body was reviewed from the perspecive of oriental medicine. Shin represents sout and hyung represents body. Health indicates the state in which shin and hyung are united as a whole one. On the other hand, disease means the state in which shin and hyung are spearated. And if such separation goes to extremes, death follows.

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Evaluation of the major sources of atmospheric pollution in jilin city by regression diagnostics (대기 오염이 암에 의한 사망률에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 한지농;우치수
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 1989
  • We study by stepwise regression method, the influence which atmospheric pollution in Jilin City has on the rate of death accorrding to cancer. The extremes are discovered and we know that $SO_2$ and smoking are important factors too.

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Inventory Model with Partial Backorders

  • Park Kyung S.
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 1983
  • This article presents a deterministic inventory model for situations in which, during the stockout period, a fraction ${\beta}$ of the demand is backordered and the remaining fraction $1-{\beta}$ is lost. By defining a time proportional backorder cost and a fixed penalty cost per unit lost, a convex objective function representing the average annual cost of operating the inventory system is obtained. The optimal operating policy variables are calculated directly. At the extremes ${\beta}\;=\;1$ and ${\beta}\;=\;0$ the model presented reduces to the usual backorders and lost sales case, respectively.

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