• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.57-72
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• 1999

Falk(1994) showed that the asymptotic efficiency of the Pickands estimator of the extreme value index $\beta$ can considerably be improved by a simple convex combination. In this paper we propose an alternative estimator of $\beta$ which is as asymptotically efficient as the optimal convex combination of the Pickands estimators but has a better finite-sample performance. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimator and the optimal convex combination estimator.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.1-8
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• 2011

In this study, software products developed in the course of testing, software managers in the process of testing software test and test tools for effective learning effects perspective has been studied using the NHPP software. The finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process models presented and the life distribution applied extreme distribution which used to find the minimum (or the maximum) of a number of samples of various distributions. Software error detection techniques known in advance, but influencing factors for considering the errors found automatically and learning factors, by prior experience, to find precisely the error factor setting up the testing manager are presented comparing the problem. As a result, the learning factor is greater than automatic error that is generally efficient model could be confirmed. This paper, a numerical example of applying using time between failures and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation method, after the efficiency of the data through trend analysis model selection were efficient using the mean square error.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.253-258
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2011

Decision problem called an optimal release policies, after testing a software system in development phase and transfer it to the user, is studied. The infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process models presented and propose an optimal release policies of the life distribution applied extreme distribution which used to find the minimum (or the maximum) of a number of samples of various distributions. In this paper, discuss optimal software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement. In a numerical example, extreme value distribution as another alternative of existing the Poisson execution time model and the log power model can be verified using inter-failure time data.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.261-282
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• 2017

The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman's rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.291-311
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• 2007

With a series of unexpected huge losses in the financial markets around the world recently, especially in the insurance market with extreme loss cases such as catastrophes, there is an increasing demand for risk management for extreme loss exposures due to high unpredictability of those risks. For extreme risk management, to make a maximum use of the information concerning the tail part of a loss distribution, EVT(Extreme Value Theory) modelling nay be the best to analyze extreme values. The Extreme Value Theory is widely used in practice and, especially in financal markets, EVT modelling is getting popular to analyBe the effects of extreme risks. This study is to review the significance of the Extreme Value Theory in risk management and, focusing on analyzing insurer's risk capital, extreme risk is measured using the real fire loss data and insurer's specific amount of risk capital is figured out to buffer the extreme risk.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.91-103
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• 2006

Yun (2005) introduced an estimator of the second order parameter characterizing the tail behavior of probability distributions and proved its consistency. In this paper we prove its asymptotic normality under a third order condition.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.273-280
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• 2005

In this paper we introduce an estimator of the second order parameter characterizing the tail behavior of probability distributions and prove its consistency.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and information Science
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.45-50
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• 1996

This paper mainly describes the wind load assumption of 765kV transmission towers. We analyzed wind velocity data a meteorological observatories to get the wind velocity of 50 years return period by using Gumbel I type extreme value distribution. By multi-correlative regression analysis method, wind velocity at no observation site was obtained. Reference dynamics wind pressure map was obtained from above analysis and the wind pressure was classified as three regio in high temperature season.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.179-191
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• 2006

Parent wind data are often acknowledged to fit a Weibull probability distribution, implying that wind epoch maxima should fall into the domain of attraction of the Gumbel (Type I) extreme value distribution. However, observations of wind epoch maxima are not fitted well by this distribution and a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) analysis leading to a Type III fit empirically appears to be better. Thus there is an apparent paradox. The reasons why advocates of the GEV approach seem to prefer it are briefly summarised. This paper gives a detailed analysis of the errors involved when the GEV is fitted to epoch maxima of Weibull origin. It is shown that the results in terms of the shape parameter are an artefact of these errors. The errors are unavoidable with the present sample sizes. If proper significance tests are applied, then the null hypothesis of a Type I fit, as predicted by theory, will almost always be retained. The GEV leads to an unacceptable ambiguity in defining design loads. For these reasons, it is concluded that the GEV approach does not seem to be a sensible option.