• Title/Summary/Keyword: exposure scenario

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Quantification of Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Extreme Weather - Focused on Typhoon case - (기후변화에 따른 극한기상의 취약성 지수 정량화 연구 - 태풍을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hee;Nam, Ki-Pyo;Lee, Jong-Jae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.190-203
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    • 2015
  • VRI(Vulnerability-Resilience Index), which is defined as a function of 3 variables: climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, has been quantified for the case of Typhoon which is one of the extreme weathers that will become more serious as climate change proceeds. Because VRI is only indicating the relative importance of vulnerability between regions, the VRI quantification is prerequisite for the effective adaptation policy for climate in Korea. For this purpose, damage statistics such as amount of damage, occurrence frequency, and major damaged districts caused by Typhoon over the past 20 years, has been employed. According to the VRI definition, we first calculated VRI over every district in the case of both with and without weighting factors of climate exposure proxy variables. For the quantitative estimation of weighting factors, we calculated correlation coefficients (R) for each of the proxy variables against damage statistics of Typhoon, and then used R as weighting factors of proxy variables. The results without applying weighting factors indicates some biases between VRI and damage statistics in some regions, but most of biases has been improved by applying weighting factors. Finally, due to the relations between VRI and damage statistics, we are able to quantify VRI expressed as a unit of KRW, showing that VRI=1 is approximately corresponding to 500 hundred million KRW. This methodology of VRI quantification employed in this study, can be also practically applied to the number of future climate scenario studies over Korea.

Characteristic Evaluation of Exposed Dose with NORM added Consumer Product based on ICRP Reference Phantom (ICRP 기준팬텀 기반의 천연방사성핵종이 포함된 가공제품 사용으로 인한 피폭선량 특성 평가)

  • Yoo, Do Hyeon;Lee, Hyun Cheol;Shin, Wook-Geun;Choi, Hyun Joon;Min, Chul Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2014
  • In Korea, July 2012, the law as called 'Act on Safety Control of Radioactive Rays Around Living Environment' was implemented to control the consumer product containing Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), but, there are no appropriate database and effective dose calculation system. The aim of this study was to develop evaluation technique of the exposure dose with the use of the consumer products containing NORM and to understand the characteristics of the exposed dose according to the radiation type and energy. For the evaluate of exposure dose, the ICRP reference phantom was simulated by the MCNPX code based on Monte Carlo method, and the minimum, medium, maximum energy of alphas, betas, gammas from the representative NORM of Uranium decay series were used as the source term in the simulation. The annual effective doses were calculated by the exposure scenario of the consumer product usage time and position. Short range of the alpha and beta rays are mostly delivered the dose to the skin. On the other hand, the gamma rays mostly delivered the similar dose to all of the organs. The results of the annual effective dose with $1Bq{\cdot}g^{-1}$ radioactive stone-bed and 10% radioactive concentration were employed with the usage time of 7 hours 50 minute per day, the maximum annual effective dose of alphas, betas, gammas were calculated 0.0222, 0.0836, $0.0101mSv{\cdot}y^{-1}$, respectively.

Hydrological drought risk assessment for climate change adaptation in South Korea (기후변화 적응을 위한 우리나라 수문학적 가뭄 위험도 평가)

  • Seo, Jungho;Chi, Haewon;Kim, Heey Jin;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2022
  • As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

Variation in Heading States of Korean Winter Wheat under Winter Temperature Rise of Toluca in Mexico (멕시코 톨루카 지역의 겨울 기온상승에 따른 한국 밀 품종의 출수생태 변이)

  • Park, TaeIl;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2016
  • The shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat has been able to develop high-yielding and day-length-intensive varieties with a wide range of ecologic adoption. However, the phenology of winter wheat has been changed due to recent rises in the winter temperature of Toluca and increasing frequency of high temperatures. We defined two wheat groups (group II and III) with vernalization and evaluated the impact of cold exposure duration and heading ratio due to changes in sowing dates by measuring changes in cold exposure duration and corresponding heading states of each group. The wheat cultivars were sown on three dates in two years. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 6 November 2013 was unfulfilled. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 22 November and 6 December 2013 was fulfilled. However, in 2014, the cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 5 and 20 November was fulfilled, but that of wheat sown on 5 December was unfulfilled. The differences for the two early November sowings were because winter temperature rises, which caused high temperatures in 2013, whereas early November 2014 saw normal temperatures for the area. The heading ratio of group II did not show a clear difference among the three sowing dates, while the heading ratio of group III was reduced by about half. This implies that the efficiency of shuttle breeding of group III will be high since it showed strong sensitivity to changes in sowing dates. We calculated future sowing dates of each group under near future climate scenarios; the future available sowing dates of group II were projected, but the dates of group III were never estimated in the temperature rise scenario in Toluca. Our findings suggest that change of sowing dates should be considered in the strategy for shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat.

Performance Assessment of Low- and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Korea by Using Complementary Indicator: Case Study with Radionuclide Flux (보조지표를 활용한 중·저준위 처분시설 성능평가: 방사성 핵종 플럭스 사례연구)

  • Jung, Kang-Il;Jeong, Mi-Seon;Park, Jin Beak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2015
  • The use of complimentary indicators, other than radiation dose and risk, to assess the safety of radioactive waste disposal has been discussed in a number of publications for providing the reasonable assurance of disposal safety and convincing the public audience. In this study, the radionuclide flux was selected as performance indicator to appraise the performance of engineered barriers and natural barrier in the Wolsong low- and intermediate-level waste disposal facility. Radionuclide flux showing the retention capability by each compartment of the disposal system is independent of assumptions in biosphere model and exposure pathways. The scenario considered as the normal scenario of disposal facility has been divided into intact or degraded silo concrete conditions. In the intact silo concrete, the radionuclide flux has been assessed with respect to the radionuclide retardation performance of each engineered barrier. In the degraded silo concrete, the radionuclide flux has been explored based on the performance degradation of engineered barriers and the relative significance of natural barrier quantitatively. The results can be used to optimally design the near-surface disposal facility being planned as the second project phase. In the future, additional complimentary indicators will be employed for strengthening the safety case for improving the public acceptance of low- and intermediate-level waste disposal facility.

Vulnerability Assessment of Soil Loss in Farm area to Climate Change Adaption (기후변화 적응 농경지 토양유실 취약성 평가)

  • Oh, Young-Ju;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Na, Young-Eun;Hong, Sun-Hee;Paik, Woen-Ki;Yoon, Seong-Tak
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.711-716
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    • 2012
  • Due to the climate change in South Korea the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea and the landslide of farmland by heavy rain is expected to increase. Because regional torrential rains accompanied by a storm continue to cause the damage in farmland urgent establishment of adaptation plant for minimizing the damage is in need. In this study we assessed vulnerability of landslide of farmland by heavy rain for local governments. Temporal resolution is 2000 year and the future 2020 year, 2050 year, 2100 year via A1B scenario. Vulnerability of local government were evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and each index is calculated by selected alternative variable. Collected data was normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Current vulnerability is concentrated in Jeju island and Gyeongsangnam-do, however, it is postulated that Kangwon-do will be vulnerable in the future. Through this study, local governments can use the data to establish adaptation plans for farmland landslide by climate change.

Water Management Vulnerability Assessment Considering Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 우리나라 물 관리의 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Yeon-Kyu;Yoo, Jeong-A;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2012
  • In order to use as basic data of adaptation, this study focused on a 'Water management vulnerability estimation' in Korea. Vulnerability is estimated dividing into flood mitigation and water resource management. Temporal resolution is 2000 year and the future 2020 year, 2050 year, 2100 year via A1B scenario. Time series data was normalized. Then weight that is gotten through delphi investigation was multiplied. Vulnerability is calculated through this process. In flood mitigation vulnerability, it was estimated to adaptation ability affect relatively biggest influence. In future, some area of Gangwon-do was analyzed that the flood mitigation vulnerability increases. In water resource management, it was estimated to climate exposure affect relatively biggest influence. At 2020 yr, there is a trend toward increased in the Chungcheongbuk-do and DaeJeon, Daegu, some area of Gyeongsangnamdo. Because this study evaluate relative vulnerability of whole country and analyzed spatial distribution, when local government establishes climate change adaptation details enforcement countermeasure, this study can give help to grasp whether should invest more in some field.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Residual Petroleum Hydrocarbons using a Foodweb Bioaccumulation Model (먹이연쇄 생물축적 모형을 이용한 잔류유류오염물질의 생태위해성평가)

  • Hwang, Sang-Il;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2009
  • Residual petroleum hydrocarbons after an oil spill may accumulate in the marine benthic ecosystem due to their high hydrophobicity. A lot of monitoring data are required for the estimation of ecosystem exposure to residual petrochemicals in an ecological risk assessment in the affected region. To save time and cost, the environmental exposure to them in the affected ecosystem can also be assessed using a simple food-web bioaccumulation model. In this study, we evaluated residual concentrations of four selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (phenanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) in a hypothetic benthic ecosystem composed of six species under two exposure scenarios. Body-residue concentration ranged 5~250 mg/kg body depending on trophic positions in an extreme scenario in which the aqueous concentrations of PAHs were assumed to be one-tenth of their aqueous solubility. In addition, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were evaluated for model species. The logarithm of bioconcentration factor (log BCF) linearly increased with increasing the logarithm of 1-octanol-water partition coefficient (log $K_{OW}$) until log $K_{OW}$ of 7.0, followed by a gradual decrease with further increase in log $K_{OW}$ without metabolic degradation. Biomagnification became significant when log $K_{OW}$ of a pollutant exceeded 5.0 in the model ecosystem, indicating that investigation of food-web structure should be critical to predict biomagnifications in the affected ecosystem because log $K_{OW}$ values of many petrochemicals are higher than 5.0. Although further research is required for better site-specific evaluation of exposure, the model simulation can be used to estimate the level of the ecosystem exposure to residual oil contaminants at the screening level.

The Effect of Representativeness in News Recommendation Mechanisms on Audience Reactions in Online News Portals (대표성 기반 뉴스 추천 메커니즘이 온라인 뉴스 포탈의 독자 반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Un-Kon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • News contents has been collected, selected, edited and sometimes distorted by the news recommendation mechanisms of online portals in nowadays. Prior studies had not confirmed the consensus of newsworthiness, and they had not tried to empirically validate the impacts of newsworthiness on audience reactions. This study challenged to summarize the concepts of newsworthiness and validate the impact of representativeness of both editor's and audience's perspective on audience reactions as perceived news quality, trust on news portal, perceived usefulness, service satisfaction, loyalty, continuous usage intention, and word-of-mouth intention by adopting the representativeness heuristics method and information adoption model. 357 valid data had been collected using a scenario survey method. Subjects in each groups are exposed by 3 news recommendation mechanisms: 1) the time-priority news exposure mechanism (control group), 2) the reference-score-based news recommendation mechanism (a single treatment group), and 3) the major-news-priority exposure mechanism sorting by the reference scores made by peer audiences (the mixed treatment group). Data had been analyzed by the MANOVA and PLS method. MANOVA results indicate that only mixed method of both editor and audience recommendation mechanisms impacts on perceived news quality and trust. PLS results indicate that perceived news quality and trust could significantly affect on the perceived usefulness, service satisfaction, loyalty, continuance usage, and word-of-mouth intention. This study would contributions to empathize the role of information technology in media industry, to conceptualize the news value in the balanced views of both editors and audiences, and to empirically validate the benefits of news recommendation mechanisms in academy. For practice, the results of this study suggest that online news portals would be better to make mixed news recommendation mechanisms to attract audiences.

Safety Evaluation of Clearance of Radioactive Metal Waste After Decommissioning of NPP (원전해체후 규제해제 대상 금속폐기물에 대한 자체처분 안전성 평가)

  • Choi, Young-Hwan;Ko, Jae-Hun;Lee, Dong-Gyu;Hwang, Young-Hwan;Lee, Mi-Hyun;Lee, Ji-Hoon;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.2_spc
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    • pp.291-303
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    • 2020
  • The Kori-Unit 1 nuclear power plant, which is scheduled to be decommissioned after permanent shutdown, is expected to generate large amounts of various types of radioactive waste during the decommissioning process. Among these, nuclear reactors and internal structures have high levels of radioactivity and the dismantled structure must have the proper size and weight on the primary side. During decommissioning, it is important to prepare an appropriate and efficient disposal method through analysis of the disposal status and the legal restrictions on wastes generated from the reactors and internal structures. Nuclear reactors and internal structures generate radioactive wastes of various levels, such as medium, very low, and clearance. A radiation evaluation indicates that wastes in the clearance level are generated in the reactor head and upper head insulation. In this study, a clearance waste safety evaluation was conducted using the RESRAD-RECYCLE code, which is a safety evaluation code, based on the activation evaluation results for the clearance level wastes. The clearance scenario for the target radioactive waste was selected and the maximum individual and collective exposure doses at the time of clearance were calculated to determine whether the clearance criteria limit prescribed by the Nuclear Safety Act was satisfied. The evaluation results indicated that the doses were significantly low, and the clearance criteria were satisfied. Based on the safety assessment results, an appropriate metal recycle and disposal method were suggested for clearance, which are the subject of the deregulation of internal structures of nuclear power plant.