• Title/Summary/Keyword: exceeding probability

Search Result 99, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Elastic modulus in large concrete structures by a sequential hypothesis testing procedure applied to impulse method data

  • Antonaci, Paola;Bocca, Pietro G.;Sellone, Fabrizio
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.26 no.5
    • /
    • pp.499-516
    • /
    • 2007
  • An experimental method denoted as Impulse Method is proposed as a cost-effective non-destructive technique for the on-site evaluation of concrete elastic modulus in existing structures: on the basis of Hertz's quasi-static theory of elastic impact and with the aid of a simple portable testing equipment, it makes it possible to collect series of local measurements of the elastic modulus in an easy way and in a very short time. A Hypothesis Testing procedure is developed in order to provide a statistical tool for processing the data collected by means of the Impulse Method and assessing the possible occurrence of significant variations in the elastic modulus without exceeding some prescribed error probabilities. It is based on a particular formulation of the renowned sequential probability ratio test and reveals to be optimal with respect to the error probabilities and the required number of observations, thus further improving the time-effectiveness of the Impulse Method. The results of an experimental investigation on different types of plain concrete prove the validity of the Impulse Method in estimating the unknown value of the elastic modulus and attest the effectiveness of the proposed Hypothesis Testing procedure in identifying significant variations in the elastic modulus.

Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (II) (하수관거시설의 침수대응 운영·관리 실태 연구 (II))

  • Ryu, Jaena;Cha, Young Joo;Oh, Jeill;Hyun, In Hwan;Kim, Young-Ran;Chang, Dae-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.271-276
    • /
    • 2009
  • Under current design standard, sewers are designed to drain stormwater generated up to 10 year return period of storms. This implies sewer flooding could occur from rainfall exceeding a 10 year return period. 5, 10, 20 and 30 year return period of storm intensities were calculated for 22 locations (cities) of meterological stations over the nation and compared to the recorded rainfall intensities for the last 30 years. The comparison resulted in the numbers of year maximum rainfall intensities exceeded each return period. Using the questionnaire survey for "the incidences of flooding since 1980" of the previous paper (Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (I)), the actual rainfall records on the date of flooding events were analyzed to demonstrate the number of flooding events caused by the exceedance of sewer capacity. For the last 30 years, more than 6 years of year maximum rainfall intensity (20%) were larger than the 10 year return period of storm in 4 cities of the 22 used for the first analysis. The number of rainfall records that exceeded the 10 year return period was 50 of the 260 actual flooding events investigated from the survey.

Dynamic crosswind fatigue of slender vertical structures

  • Repetto, Maria Pia;Solari, Giovanni
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.5 no.6
    • /
    • pp.527-542
    • /
    • 2002
  • Wind-excited vibrations of slender structures can induce fatigue damage and cause structural failure without exceeding ultimate limit state. Unfortunately, the growing importance of this problem is coupled with an evident lack of simple calculation criteria. This paper proposes a mathematical method for evaluating the crosswind fatigue of slender vertical structures, which represents the dual formulation of a parallel method that the authors recently developed with regard to alongwind vibrations. It takes into account the probability distribution of the mean wind velocity at the structural site. The aerodynamic crosswind actions on the stationary structure are caused by the vortex shedding and by the lateral turbulence, both schematised by spectral models. The structural response in the small displacement regime is expressed in closed form by considering only the contribution of the first vibration mode. The stress cycle counting is based on a probabilistic method for narrow-band processes and leads to analytical formulae of the stress cycles histogram, of the accumulated damage and of the fatigue life. The extension of this procedure to take into account aeroelastic vibrations due to lock-in is carried out by means of ESDU method. The examples point out the great importance of vortex shedding and especially of lock-in concerning fatigue.

Mathematical Model for Revenue Management with Overbooking and Costly Price Adjustment for Hotel Industries

  • Masruroh, Nur Aini;Mulyani, Yun Prihantina
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.207-223
    • /
    • 2013
  • Revenue management (RM) has been widely used to model products characterized as perishable. Classical RM model assumed that price is the sole factor in the model. Thus price adjustment becomes a crucial and costly factor in business. In this paper, an optimal pricing model is developed based on minimization of soft customer cost, one kind of price adjustment cost and is solved by Lagrange multiplier method. It is formed by expected discounted revenue/bid price integrating quantity-based RM and pricing-based RM. Quantity-based RM consists of two capacity models, namely, booking limit and overbooking. Booking limit, built by assuming uncertain customer arrival, decides the optimal capacity allocation for two market segments. Overbooking determines the level of accepted order exceeding capacity to anticipate probability of cancellation. Furthermore, pricing-based RM models occupancy/demand rate influenced by internal and competitor price changes. In this paper, a mathematical model based on game theoretic approach is developed for two conditions of deterministic and stochastic demand. Based on the equilibrium point, the best strategy for both hotels can be determined.

Seismic Risk Analysis of Steel Pile Type Pier (잔교식 안벽구조물의 확률론적 지진위험도해석)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyawn;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Doo-Kie;Cho, Byung-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.237-243
    • /
    • 2007
  • Probabilistic seismic risk analysis was performed. Exceeding probabilities of combined stress and maximum horizontal displacement of steel piled pier due to surface ground motion which was transferred from base rock motion was expressed as seismic fragility curves. Occurrence probability of peak ground motion was calculated by using the seismic hazard map on design code for harbor and fishery structures of Korea. Finally seismic risk of pier structure was found by combining the fragility and the hazard and those were presented through numerical analysis.

Accidents involving Children in School Zones Study to identify the key influencing factors (어린이보호구역내 어린이 교통사고 발생에 미치는 영향요인 분석)

  • Park, Sinae;Lim, Junbeom;Kim, Hyungkyu;Lee, Soobeom
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.167-174
    • /
    • 2017
  • PURPOSES: This study aims to analyze the impact of the implementation of a school zone traffic safety improvement project on the number of accidents involving children in these zones. METHODS : To analyze the correlation between school zone traffic safety features of roads in the zone and the number of accidents involving children, we developed an occurrence probability model of traffic accidents involving children by using a binary logistic regression model with SPSS 23.0 software. Two separate models were developed for two zones: interior block and arterial road. RESULTS :The model depicted that in the case of the interior block, shorter sidewalk width, speed bump, and an elevated crosswalk were key factors affecting the occurrence of accidents involving children. In the case of arterial roads exceeding a width of 12 m, the speed limit, roadside barriers, and red paving of road surfaces were found to be the key factors. CONCLUSIONS:The results of this study can serve as the elementary research data to help improve the effectiveness of school zone traffic safety improvement projects and school zone road repair projects in future.

Reliability analysis of LNG unloading arm considering variability of wind load (풍하중의 변동성을 고려한 LNG 하역구조물의 신뢰성해석)

  • Kim, Dong Hyawn;Lim, Jong Kwon;Koh, Jae Pil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.223-231
    • /
    • 2007
  • Considering wind speed uncertainty, reliability analysis of the LNG unloading arm at Tongyoung Production Site was performed. Extreme distribution of wind speed was estimated from the data collected at the weather center and wind load was calculated using wind velocities and coefficients of wind pressure. The unloading arm was modeled with plate and solid elements. Contact elements were used to describe the interface between base of structure andground. Response surface for maximum effective stress was found for reliability analysis and then reliability functions was defined and used to determine exceeding probability of allowable and yield stresses. In addition, sensitivity analysis was also performed to estimate the effect of possible material deterioration in the future.

Vessel failure sensitivities of an advanced reactor for SBLOCA

  • Jhung, Myung Jo;Oh, Chang-Sik;Choi, Youngin;Kang, Sung-Sik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.52 no.1
    • /
    • pp.185-191
    • /
    • 2020
  • Plant-specific analyses of an advanced reactor have been performed to assure the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel during transient conditions, which are expected to initiate pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events. The vessel failure probabilities from the probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses are combined with the transient frequencies to generate the through-wall cracking frequencies, which are compared to the acceptance criterion. Several sensitivity analyses are performed, focusing on the orientations and sizes of cracks, the copper content, and a flaw distribution model. The results show that the integrity of the reactor vessel is expected to be maintained for long-term operation beyond the design lifetime from the PTS perspective using the design data of the advanced reactor. Moreover, a fluence level exceeding 9×1019 n/㎠ is found to be acceptable, generating a sufficient margin beyond the design lifetime.

Seismic performance evaluation of buckling restrained braced frames (BRBF) using incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis method (IDA)

  • Khorami, M.;Khorami, M.;Alvansazyazdi, M.;Shariati, M.;Zandi, Y.;Jalali, A.;Tahir, M.M.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.13 no.6
    • /
    • pp.531-538
    • /
    • 2017
  • In this paper, the seismic behavior of BRBF structures is studied and compared with special concentric braced frames (SCBF). To this purpose, three BRBF and three SCBF structures with 3, 5 and 10 stories are designed based on AISC360-5 and modelled using OpenSees. These structures are loaded in accordance with ASCE/SEI 7-10. Incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis (IDA) are performed on these structures for 28 different accelerograms and the median IDA curves are used to compare seismic capacity of these two systems. Results obtained, indicates that BRBF systems provide higher capacity for the target performance level in comparison with SCBF systems. And structures with high altitude (in this study, 5 and 10 stories) with the possibility of exceeding the collapse prevention performance level, further than lower altitude (here 3 floors) structures.

Seismic fragility assessment of self-centering RC frame structures considering maximum and residual deformations

  • Li, Lu-Xi;Li, Hong-Nan;Li, Chao
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.68 no.6
    • /
    • pp.677-689
    • /
    • 2018
  • Residual deformation is a crucial index that should be paid special attention in the performance-based seismic analyses of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Owing to their superior re-centering capacity under earthquake excitations, the post-tensioned self-centering (PTSC) RC frames have been proposed and developed for engineering application during the past few decades. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment on the seismic fragility of a PTSC frame by simultaneously considering maximum and residual deformations. Bivariate limit states are defined according to the pushover analyses for maximum deformations and empirical judgments for residual deformations. Incremental Dynamic Analyses (IDA) are conducted to derive the probability of exceeding predefined limit states at specific ground motion intensities. Seismic performance of the PTSC frame is compared with that of a conventional monolithic RC frame. The results show that, taking a synthetical consideration of maximum and residual deformations, the PTSC frame surpasses the monolithic frame in resisting most damage states, but is more vulnerable to ground motions with large intensities.