• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.259-279
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• 2001

This paper investigates the optimal ratio of the ex post cost settled in the total cost paid to the facility-operating agent and the size of compensation for demand promotion efforts made by the trustee. We have extended McAfee and McMillan(1986)'s principal-agent model by incorporating incentives for the demand promotion efforts. We show that cost reducing effort is negatively related with the ratio of the ex post cost settled in the total cost. In addition, the optimal level of demand promotion effort is determined by the size of the compensation and the ratio of the ex post cost settled. A simulation study confirms our findings from a theoretical model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.807-813
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• 2016

The Maritime Traffic Safety Audit Scheme was institutionalized in 2009 to provide for professional surveys, measurement and the evaluation of navigational hazards that might occur in coastal waters in the course of marine work. Related researches that dealt with the reform of the Maritime Traffic Safety Audit Scheme found that there were no rules or regulations for verifying whether marine work conformed to audit results and reviewing the exactitude of ship handling simulations which were a crucial part of the scheme. According to the necessity of adopting an ex post facto management system in the field of maritime traffic, this study analyzed the similar audit acts such as the Natural Environment Impact Audit Scheme and the Road Traffic Safety Audit Scheme, and proposed specific articles for revising Maritime Safety Act in order to break out from the institutional inertia of the current Maritime Traffic Safety Audit Scheme. It is expected that a newly proposed legal system for verifying the performance of audit results and the exactitude of audits will help improve maritime traffic safety by eradicating potentially hidden hazards related to marine work.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.725-731
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• 2020

This study analyzed the impact of increasing orange imports on the domestic fruit markets, focusing on the period January to May when oranges were imported and sold intensively after implementation of the Korea-US FTA. In this study, only citrus fruits that compete with U.S. oranges were limited to domestic fruits; of these, Hallabong, which is consistent with consumption of U.S. oranges, was selected as an analysis target. A dynamic recursive simulation model was established to evaluate the ex-post effects of the Korea-U.S. FTA, and to conduct mid and long-term forecasts for the Hallabong market. In addition, major policy simulations were performed on the Hallabong market to assess the effect of each scenario. The ex-post impact evaluation reveals that between December and February, Hallabong had no effect on the seasonal tariff of oranges. However, from 2012 to 2017, the actual import decreased by 21.9 billion won annually due to the TRQ, with the accumulated 6-year decrease being 131.5 billion won. Major policy simulation analysis shows that the change in the unit cost of import due to the U.S orange crop and the increase of Hallabong export will help in expanding the market, and thus effectively increase income.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 2004

Building trust assurance particularly in case of commercial practices in cyber space without physical contact is a very complex task to tackle. Several factors are interrelated in not necessarily technical but also societal dimensions over the entire process of e-commerce firm ex-ante through ex-post transactions. This paper attempts first to brief the substance of e-trust and examine the natuure of its complexity by using system dynamics simulation technique, followed by its current address and the future directions to move. A framework of 3 x 3 matrixes is deviaed and the key issues of e-trust are mapped into cross-cells of the table. The paper also includes some possible suggestions on the matter of trust assurance especially for B2C and B2B in policy wise and organizational perspective from the context of international collaboration.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.97 no.4
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• pp.458-466
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• 2008

This study was carried out to forecast long-term supply and demand of chestnut and to analyze the impacts of change in the environment of domestic and international chestnut markets. For these ends, the study developed a partial equilibrium market model, in which in-shelled chestnut market was vertically linked to shelled chestnut market. To examine the predictive ability of the model for the endogenous variables ex-post simulation was run for the period 1990 through 2003. In general, all endogenous variables reproduced the historical trends during the period except for disuse areas and newly established areas. The results of forecasting supply and demand show that domestic in-shelled chestnut production is estimated to decrease slightly from 76,447 ton in 2005 to 76,286 ton in 2020 and that exports of shelled chestnut continue to be decreased.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.73-82
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• 2018

Purpose - Unstable vegetable prices have been one of the major concerns in Korean agricultural and food marketing system. The Korean government has implemented a number of policy instruments, including government purchasing programs in order to alleviate fluctuations in vegetable prices. The economic impact of policy instruments has been assessed based on the average monthly price change rate before and after the implementation of the policy. However, this approach failed to provide a net impact of policy measures on price stabilization in the vegetable markets, as policy impacts could not be successfully distinguished from other effects on price changes in the vegetable market. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the net impact of the government purchasing program on the price volatility of dried red pepper which is considered one of the major vegetables in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - This study develops a monthly dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean dried red pepper market. Behavioral equations in the model were estimated by OLS and synthetic method based on the annual and monthly time series data from 1993 to 2015. The model is first simulated to yield actual dried red pepper market conditions in 2015 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming that there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015. Results - According to the ex-post scenario analysis using the developed model, without the government procurements in 2015, the average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 would be respectably 7.9 percent and 0.10. It is relatively higher than the actual average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 which were respectively 1.7 percent and 0.06. Conclusions - The ex-post simulation results in this study shows that if there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015, the dried red pepper market would have had much higher volatile price movements. The results of this study would provide useful information for future price stabilization policy of vegetable markets in Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.538-545
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• 2020

This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.533-544
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• 2020

In this paper, we conducted a dynamic ex-post assessment on the grape business cessation support System. Based on the analysis results, in the short term, there was an increase in grape price due to a decrease in production and accompanying increases in the prices of consumption substitution items. However, in the long run, grape prices fell again due to an increase in grape production because of the entry of new grape farmers and the growth of adult grape trees. In addition, the analysis showed that the balloon effect caused by the conversion of crops caused indirect damage such as an increase in the production volume of substitution crops and a decrease in prices. When analyzing the social welfare measurement, the results showed that the support system for business cessation increased the overall social welfare due to an increase in producer welfare because of a price increase in the short term, but in the long term, both producer and consumer welfare decreased. In the end, it is necessary to review the system because the government's intervention may cause market distortion and inefficient resource allocation. Above all, it is necessary to minimize the indirect effect of the industry's contraction and balloon effect due to excessive business cessation. For this, conditional support should be provided in parallel with post management rather than unconditional support. In addition, it is necessary to provide a strategic support system that considers substitution items in addition to those items to be supported.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.377-385
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• 2017

This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of 14 FTAs on the domestic agricultural sector through aneconomic post-impact assessment using the dynamic analysis method. As a result of the implementation of the FTAs, agricultural production decreased significantly, mainly in the livestock and fruit sectors. Most of the previous studieswere limited to the post-impact assessment of individual FTAs, which does not reflect the fact that the implementation of a number of FTAs results ina combinationof trade creation, trade transitions, and FTA accumulation effects. Therefore, this study provides amore objective and comprehensive evaluation of the effects of FTAs in the agricultural sector, and contributes to some extent to the evaluation of the policy directions necessary for revising and supplementing the domestic measures needed to supplement the FTAs. Of course, a more sophisticated analysis is needed to separate the impact of these complementary domestic measures and the performance of the general agricultural project.