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Forecasting of Chestnut's Supply and Demand by the Partial Equilibrium Market Model  

Jung, Byung Heon (Korea Research Institute)
Kim, Eui Gyeong (Dept. of Forest Environmental Resources, Gyeongsang National University)
Joo, Rin Won (Korea Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.97, no.4, 2008 , pp. 458-466 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study was carried out to forecast long-term supply and demand of chestnut and to analyze the impacts of change in the environment of domestic and international chestnut markets. For these ends, the study developed a partial equilibrium market model, in which in-shelled chestnut market was vertically linked to shelled chestnut market. To examine the predictive ability of the model for the endogenous variables ex-post simulation was run for the period 1990 through 2003. In general, all endogenous variables reproduced the historical trends during the period except for disuse areas and newly established areas. The results of forecasting supply and demand show that domestic in-shelled chestnut production is estimated to decrease slightly from 76,447 ton in 2005 to 76,286 ton in 2020 and that exports of shelled chestnut continue to be decreased.
Keywords
partial equilibrium market model; ex-post simulation; chestnut; supply and demand forecasting;
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