• Title/Summary/Keyword: evaluating models

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Review of Statistical Methods for Evaluating the Performance of Survival or Other Time-to-Event Prediction Models (from Conventional to Deep Learning Approaches)

  • Seo Young Park;Ji Eun Park;Hyungjin Kim;Seong Ho Park
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.1697-1707
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    • 2021
  • The recent introduction of various high-dimensional modeling methods, such as radiomics and deep learning, has created a much greater diversity in modeling approaches for survival prediction (or, more generally, time-to-event prediction). The newness of the recent modeling approaches and unfamiliarity with the model outputs may confuse some researchers and practitioners about the evaluation of the performance of such models. Methodological literacy to critically appraise the performance evaluation of the models and, ideally, the ability to conduct such an evaluation would be needed for those who want to develop models or apply them in practice. This article intends to provide intuitive, conceptual, and practical explanations of the statistical methods for evaluating the performance of survival prediction models with minimal usage of mathematical descriptions. It covers from conventional to deep learning methods, and emphasis has been placed on recent modeling approaches. This review article includes straightforward explanations of C indices (Harrell's C index, etc.), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration plot, other methods for evaluating the calibration performance, and Brier score.

Applied linear and nonlinear statistical models for evaluating strength of Geopolymer concrete

  • Prem, Prabhat Ranjan;Thirumalaiselvi, A.;Verma, Mohit
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2019
  • The complex phenomenon of the bond formation in geopolymer is not well understood and therefore, difficult to model. This paper present applied statistical models for evaluating the compressive strength of geopolymer. The applied statistical models studied are divided into three different categories - linear regression [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and elastic net], tree regression [decision and bagging tree] and kernel methods (support vector regression (SVR), kernel ridge regression (KRR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), relevance vector machine (RVM)]. The performance of the methods is compared in terms of error indices, computational effort, convergence and residuals. Based on the present study, kernel based methods (GPR and KRR) are recommended for evaluating compressive strength of Geopolymer concrete.

Developing the Stage Evaluation Model for e-Business Company using Analytic Hierarchy Process (분석적 계층기법을 활용한 e-Business 기업의 초기투자단계 및 성장단계별 평가모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Hye-Jin;Han, In-Goo;Oh, Kyong-Joo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.45-61
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    • 2005
  • This study develops the evaluation model for e-Business company using analytic hierarchy process. As the first step of this study, we derived the appraisal standards based on the previous literature and the knowledge of experts from venture capitalists, security companies, credit evaluation companies, and consulting firms. In order to validate the evaluating factors in the models, this study was supported by analysts of top ranked venture capitalists in Korea. Through their assistance, this study can determine necessary evaluating factors that refined and deepened the models. Four expert groups, such as venture capitalists, credit analysts, analysts of security company and e-Business consultants, provide their knowledge for the determination of the weights of evaluating factors in the hierarchical model through the questionnaires and interviews. The results show that the weights of the evaluating factors differed by the maturity of e-Business company.

Evaluating Internet Pricing Schemes: A Three-Dimensional Visual Model

  • Nguyen, Thuy T.T.;Armitage, Grenville J.
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 2005
  • Traditional Internet pricing schemes are coming under continual pressure to adapt to, and encourage, a changing mix of Internet applications and consumer usage patterns. Much research effort over the last decade has been focused on developing more efficient and attractive charging schemes. However, none of the proposed models has been widely deployed. This raises questions regarding the inhibiting factors and missing pieces that make pricing the Internet such a challenge. In this paper, we discuss the problems with current Internet pricing schemes, review the history of Internet pricing research over the last ten years, and summarize the key features and motivations of the most significant models. We develop a novel visual approach to comparing and evaluating such schemes using a three-dimensional (3D) metric encompassing technical efficiency, economic efficiency, and social impact. We address and discuss the important factors that have inhibited the deployment of the reviewed models and suggest productive areas of focus for future Internet pricing research.

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On the Development of Typhoon Avoidance Simulation System with the Evaluating Method by Seakeeping Performance of Ship

  • Song Chae-Uk;Kong Gil-Young;Jin Guo-Zhu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.299-304
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    • 2005
  • A simulation system is needed to train students and mariners in order that they can take suitable actions to evade typhoon's strike promptly and sufficiently. In order to make such kind of system, three kinds of models about the typhoon are necessary, typhoon prediction model to generate typhoon's track, wind & wave-field model to make sea conditions around the typhoon and evaluation model of trainee's action whether their actions were suitable or not during simulation. We have developed the prediction and wind & wave-field models of typhoon, but the evaluation model has not been developed yet. In this paper, after making a method for evaluating trainee's actions by seakeeping performance, we propose an typhoon avoidance simulation system for training mariners so that they can promote their abilities to evade the typhoons at sea.

Influence of the Mars atmosphere model on aerodynamics of an entry capsule

  • Zuppardi, Gennaro
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.239-256
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    • 2019
  • This study develops a dual purpose: i) evaluating the effects of two different Mars atmosphere models (NASA Glenn and GRAM-2001) on aerodynamics of a capsule (Pathfinder) entering the Mars atmosphere, ii) verifying the feasibility of evaluating the ambient density and pressure by means of the methods by McLaughlin and Cassanto, respectively and therefore to re-build the values provided by the models. The method by McLaughlin relies on the evaluation of the capsule drag coefficient, the method by Cassanto relies on the measurement of pressure at a point on the capsule surface in aerodynamic shadow. The study has been carried out computationally by means of: i) a code integrating the equations of dynamics of the capsule for the computation of the entry trajectory, ii) a DSMC code for the solution of the flow field around the capsule in the altitude interval 50-100 km. The models show consistent differences at altitudes higher than about 40 km. It seems that the GRAM-2001 model is more reliable than the NASA Glenn model. In fact, the NASA Glenn model produces, at high altitude, temperatures that seem to be too low compared with those from the GRAM-2001 model and correspondingly very different aerodynamic conditions in terms of Mach, Reynolds and Knudsen numbers. This produces pretty different capsule drag coefficients by the two models as well as pressure on its surface, making not feasible neither the method by McLaughlin nor that by Cassanto, until a single, reliable model of the Mars atmosphere is not established. The present study verified that the implementation of the Cassanto method in Mars atmosphere should rely (such as it is currently) on pressure obtained experimentally in ground facilities.

Study on Theoretical Models of Regional Humanity Lung Cancer Hazards Assessment

  • Zhang, Chuan;Gao, Xing
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1759-1764
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To establish the concept of lung cancer hazard assessment theoretical models, evaluating the degree of lung cancer risk of Beijing for regional population lung cancer hazard assessment to provide a basis for technical support. Materials and Methods: ISO standards were used to classify stratified analysis for the entire population, life cycle, processes and socioeconomic management. Associated risk factors were evaluated as lung cancer hazard risk assessment first class indicators. Study design: Using the above materials, indicators were given the weight coefficients, building lung cancer risk assessment theoretical models. Regional data for Beijing were entered into the theoretical model to calculate the parameters of each indicator and evaluate the degree of local lung cancer risk. Results: Adopting the concept of lung cancer hazard assessment and theoretical models for regional populations, we established a lung cancer hazard risk assessment system, including 2 first indicators, 8 secondary indicators and 18 third indicators. All indicators were given weight coefficients and used as information sources. Score of hazard for lung cancer was 84.4 in Beijing. Conclusions: Comprehensively and systematically building a lung cancer risk assessment theoretical model for regional populations in conceivable, evaluating the degree of lung cancer risk of Beijing, providing technical support and scientific basis for interventions for prevention.

A Proposal of Quality Evaluating Model for Serious Game Contents

  • Yoon, Sun-Jung;Yun, Tae-Soo
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.26-34
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    • 2010
  • This paper is on the premise that we need objective and measurable researches on quality evaluation of serious game for users' correct selection of games fitting for their purposes, for development of competitive high-quality game, and for stable growth of game industry. At first, we looked into various characteristics of serious game, read the present situation of game market, and proposed the necessity of quality evaluating model for serious game. To guarantee the objectivity of the proposed models, we compared and analyzed various proposals of standard model on the basis of international standard quality-evaluating model, ISO/IEC 9126 S/W. And so we extracted quality-evaluating items for serious game that composed of 8 evaluating areas and 25 sub-attributes, and presented quality-evaluating indices of each area. The proposed quality-evaluating model was added 2 areas and 8 sub-attributes to the international standard model, and the validity of the extracted items' was verified by expert group's questionnaire. Accordingly, we expect that this paper will increase game users' satisfaction, promote the development of high-quality games, and contribute to continuous growth in serious game market.

Evaluating Predictive Ability of Classification Models with Ordered Multiple Categories

  • Oong-Hyun Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.383-395
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    • 1999
  • This study is concerned with the evaluation of predictive ability of classification models with ordered multiple categories. If categories can be ordered or ranked the spread of misclassification should be considered to evaluate the performance of the classification models using loss rate since the apparent error rate can not measure the spread of misclassification. Since loss rate is known to underestimate the true loss rate the bootstrap method were used to estimate the true loss rate. thus this study suggests the method to evaluate the predictive power of the classification models using loss rate and the bootstrap estimate of the true loss rate.

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