• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation performance

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Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.

A study on combination of loss functions for effective mask-based speech enhancement in noisy environments (잡음 환경에 효과적인 마스크 기반 음성 향상을 위한 손실함수 조합에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jaehee;Kim, Wooil
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.234-240
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, the mask-based speech enhancement is improved for effective speech recognition in noise environments. In the mask-based speech enhancement, enhanced spectrum is obtained by multiplying the noisy speech spectrum by the mask. The VoiceFilter (VF) model is used as the mask estimation, and the Spectrogram Inpainting (SI) technique is used to remove residual noise of enhanced spectrum. In this paper, we propose a combined loss to further improve speech enhancement. In order to effectively remove the residual noise in the speech, the positive part of the Triplet loss is used with the component loss. For the experiment TIMIT database is re-constructed using NOISEX92 noise and background music samples with various Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions. Source to Distortion Ratio (SDR), Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ), and Short-Time Objective Intelligibility (STOI) are used as the metrics of performance evaluation. When the VF was trained with the mean squared error and the SI model was trained with the combined loss, SDR, PESQ, and STOI were improved by 0.5, 0.06, and 0.002 respectively compared to the system trained only with the mean squared error.

Study on the Estimation of Towing Force for LNG Bunkering Barge (LNG 벙커링 바지의 예인력 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seung-Hoon;Jung, Dong-Ho;Jung, Jae-Hwan;Hwang, Sung-Chul;Cho, Seok-Kyu;Sung, Hong-Gun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.378-387
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, the towing force for the LNG bunkering barge was investigated. Currently, LNG bunkering barge is being developed as an infrastructure for the bunkering of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), an eco-friendly energy source. In the case of the LNG bunkering barge, self-propulsion is considered through retrofit from an operating point. Therefore, the LNG bunkering barge's shape is similar to that of the ship as compared to a towed barge, so a rule of the towed barge overestimates the towing force. In order to improve accuracy, the calm water resistance was calculated using ITTC 1978 method which considers wave resistance by the Rankine source method. The added resistance in waves was calculated using the modified radiated energy method which considers the shortwave correction method of NMRI. The performance of the towing resistances through the calm water resistance and the added resistance in waves was compared to rules associated with towed barges.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

Estimation of CO2 Net Atmospheric Flux in the Middle and Lower Nakdong River, and Influence Factors Analysis (낙동강 중하류에서 이산화탄소 순배출 플럭스 산정 및 영향인자 분석)

  • Lee, Eunju;Chung, Sewoong;Park, Hyungseok;Kim, Sungjin;Park, Daeyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.316-331
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    • 2019
  • Carbon dioxide($CO_2$) emission from rivers to the atmosphere is a key component in the global carbon cycle. Most of the rivers are supersaturated with $CO_2$. At a global scale, the amount of $CO_2$ emission from rivers is reported to be five-fold greater than that from lakes and reservoirs, but relevant data are rare in Korea. The objectives of this study is to estimate the $CO_2$ net atmospheric flux(NAF) from the upstream of Gangjeong-Goryeong Weir(GGW), Dalseong Weir(DSW), Hapcheon-Changnyeong Weir(HCW), and Changnyeong-Haman Weir(CHW) located in Nakdong River South Korea) using field and laboratory experiments and to apply data mining techniques to develop parsimonious prediction models that can be used to estimate $CO_2$ NAF with physical and water quality variables that can be collected easily. As a result, the study sites were all heterotrophic systems that often released $CO_2$ to the atmosphere, except when the algal photosynthesis was active.The median $CO_2$ NAF was minimum $391.5mg-CO_2/m^2$ day at GGW and maximum $1472.7mg-CO_2/m^2$ day at DSW. The $CO_2$ NAF showed a negative correlation with pH and Chl-a since the overgrowth of the algae consumed $CO_2$ in the water and increased the pH. As the parsimonious multiple regression model and random forest model developed, this study showed an excellent performance with the $Adj.R^2$ value higher than 0.77 in all weirs. Thus, these methods can be used to estimate $CO_2$ NAF in the river even if there is no $pCO_2$ measurement data.

Maintenance of Platelet Counts with Low Level QC Materials and the Change in P-LCR according to Hemolysis with XN-9000 (XN-9000장비에서 Low Level QC물질에서의 혈소판 수 관리와 용혈에 따른 P-LCR의 변화)

  • Shim, Moon-Jung;Lee, Hyun-A
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.399-405
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    • 2018
  • The platelet count in clinical laboratories is essential for the diagnosis and treatment of hemostasis abnormalities, and accurate platelet counting in the low count range is of prime importance for deciding if a platelet transfusion is needed and for monitoring after chemotherapy. Quality control is designed to reduce and correct any deficiencies in the internal analytical process of a clinical laboratory prior to the release of patient results. Fragmented erythrocytes are the major confusing factors for platelet counting because of their similar size to platelets. The authors found that the low range QC values were out of 2SD with a Sysmex automatic analyzer in internal quality control process. Thus far, there has been little discussion on the relationship between hemolysis and the platelet parameters. Therefore, this study focused on the performance of automated platelet counts, including the PLT-F, the PLT-I, and PLT-O methods at the low platelet range using the low level QC materials and compared the 5 platelet parameters with the hemolyzed samples. The results showed that the CV was the smallest with PLT-F and P-LCR increased from 18.4 to 31.9% in the hemolysis samples. These results indicate that a more accurate estimation of the platelet counts can be achieved using the PLT-F method than the PLT-I method at the low platelet range. The use of the PLT-F system improves the confidence of results in low platelets samples in a routine hematology laboratory. The results suggest that P-LCR is a new parameter in assessing samples when the specimen is suspected of hemolysis and deterioration. Nevertheless, further studies will be needed to establish the relationship with P-LCR and hemolysis using human blood specimens.

Verification of Planetary Boundary Layer Height for Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) Using the Winter Season Intensive Observation Data during ICE-POP 2018 (ICE-POP 2018기간 동계집중관측자료를 활용한 국지수치모델(LDAPS)의 행성경계층고도 검증)

  • In, So-Ra;Nam, Hyoung-Gu;Lee, Jin-Hwa;Park, Chang-Geun;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.369-382
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    • 2018
  • Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), produced by the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS), was verified using RawinSonde (RS) data obtained from observation at Daegwallyeong (DGW) and Sokcho (SCW) during the International Collaborative Experiments for Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018). The PBLH was calculated using RS data by applying the bulk Richardson number and the parcel method. This calculated PBLH was then compared to the values produced by LDAPS. The PBLH simulations for DGW and SCW were generally underestimation. However, the PBLH was an overestimation from surface to 200 m and 450 m at DGW and SCW, respectively; this result of model's failure to correctly simulate the Surface Boundary Layer (SBL) and the Mixing Layer (ML) as the PBLH. When the accuracy of the PBLH simulation is low, large errors are seen in the mid- and low-level humidity. The highest frequencies of Planetary boundary layer (PBL) types, calculated by the LDAPS at DGW and SCW, were presented as types Ι and II, respectively. Analysis of meteorological factors according to the PBL types indicate that the PBLH of the existing stratocumulus were overestimated when the mid- and low-level humidity errors were large. If the instabilities of the surface and vertical mixing into clouds are considered important factors affecting the estimation of PBLH into model, then mid- and low-level humidity should also be considered important factors influencing PBLH simulation performance.

Evaluation of Rededge-M Camera for Water Color Observation after Image Preprocessing (영상 전처리 수행을 통한 Rededge-M 카메라의 수색 관측에의 활용성 검토)

  • Kim, Wonkook;Roh, Sang-Hyun;Moon, Yongseon;Jung, Sunghun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2019
  • Water color analysis allows non-destructive estimation of abundance of optically active water constituents in the water body. Recently, there have been increasing needs for light-weighted multispectral cameras that can be integrated with low altitude unmanned platforms such as drones, autonomous vehicles, and heli-kites, for the water color analysis by spectroradiometers. This study performs the preprocessing of the Micasense Rededge-M camera which recently receives a growing attention from the earth observation community for its handiness and applicability for local environment monitoring, and investigates the applicability of Rededge-M data for water color analysis. The Vignette correction and the band alignment were conducted for the radiometric image data from Rededge-M, and the sky, water, and solar radiation essential for the water color analysis, and the resultant remote sensing reflectance were validated with an independent hyperspectral instrument, TriOS RAMSES. The experiment shows that Rededge-M generally satisfies the basic performance criteria for water color analysis, although noticeable differences are observed in the blue (475 nm) and the near-infrared (840 nm) band compared with RAMSES.

Estimation of the major sources for organic aerosols at the Anmyeon Island GAW station (안면도에서의 초미세먼지 유기성분 주요 영향원 평가)

  • Han, Sanghee;Lee, Ji Yi;Lee, Jongsik;Heo, Jongbae;Jung, Chang Hoon;Kim, Eun-Sill;Kim, Yong Pyo
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2018
  • Based on a two-year measurement data, major sources for the ambient carbonaceous aerosols at the Anmyeon Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station were identified by using the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model. The particulate matter less than or equal to $2.5{\mu}m$ in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) aerosols were sampled between June 2015 to May 2017 and carbonaceous species including ~80 organic compounds were analyzed. When the number of factors was 5 or 6, the performance evaluation parameters showed the best results, With 6 factor case, the characteristics of transported factors were clearer. The 6 factors were identified with various analyses including chemical characteristics and air parcel movement analysis. The 6 factors with their relative contributions were (1) anthropogenic Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) (10.3%), (2) biogenic sources (24.8%), (3) local biomass burning (26.4%), (4) transported biomass burning (7.3%), (5) combustion related sources (12.0%), and (6) transported sources (19.2%). The air parcel movement analysis result and seasonal variation of the contribution of these factors also supported the identification of these factors. Thus, the Anmyeon Island GAW station has been affected by both regional and local sources for the carbonaceous aerosols.

Study on Compensation Method of Anisotropic H-field Antenna (Loran H-field 안테나의 지향성 보상 기법 연구)

  • Park, Sul-Gee;Son, Pyo-Woong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.172-178
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    • 2019
  • Although the needs for providing resilient PNT information are increasing, threats due to the intentional RFI or space weather change are challenging to resolve. eLoran, which is a terrestrial navigation system that use a high-power signal is considered as a best back-up navigation system. Depending on the user's environment in the eLoran system, the user may use one of E-field or H-field antennas. H-field antenna, which has no restriction on setting stable ground and is relatively resistant to noise of general electronic equipment, is composed of two loops, and shows anisotropic gain pattern due to the different measurement at the two loops. Therefore, the H-field antenna's phase estimation value of signal varies depending on its direction even at the static environment. The error due to the direction of the signal should be eliminated if the user want to estimate the own position more precisely. In this paper, a method to compensate the error according to the geometric distribution between the H-field antenna and the transmitting station is proposed. A model was developed to compensate the directional error of H-field antenna based on the signal generated from the eLoran signal simulator. The model is then used to the survey measurement performed in the land area and verify its performance.