• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.5585-5593
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• 2014

This study tested the hypothesis that the significance of the heterogeneous dispersion parameter in safety performance function (SPF) used to estimate the expected crashes is affected by the endogenous heterogeneous prior distributions, and analyzed the impacts of the mis-specified dispersion parameter on the evaluation results for traffic safety countermeasures. In particular, this study simulated the Poisson means based on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters and estimated the SPFs using both the negative binomial (NB) model and the heterogeneous negative binomial (HNB) model for analyzing the impacts of the model mis-specification on the mean and dispersion functions in SPF. In addition, this study analyzed the characteristics of errors in the crash reduction factors (CRFs) obtained when the two models are used to estimate the posterior means and variances, which are essentially estimated through the estimated hyper-parameters in the heterogeneous prior distributions. The simulation study results showed that a mis-estimation on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters through the NB model does not affect the coefficient of the mean functions, but the variances of the prior distribution are seriously mis-estimated when the NB model is used to develop SPFs without considering the heterogeneity in dispersion. Consequently, when the NB model is used erroneously to estimate the prior distributions with heterogeneous dispersion parameters, the mis-estimated posterior mean can produce large errors in CRFs up to 120%.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.743-767
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• 2020

Due to the impressive flexural performance, enhanced compressive strength and more constrained crack propagation, Fibre-reinforced concrete (FRC) have been widely employed in the construction application. Majority of experimental studies have focused on the seismic behavior of FRC columns. Based on the valid experimental data obtained from the previous studies, the current study has evaluated the seismic response and compressive strength of FRC rectangular columns while following hybrid metaheuristic techniques. Due to the non-linearity of seismic data, Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been incorporated with metaheuristic algorithms. 317 different datasets from FRC column tests has been applied as one database in order to determine the most influential factor on the ultimate strengths of FRC rectangular columns subjected to the simulated seismic loading. ANFIS has been used with the incorporation of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic algorithm (GA). For the analysis of the attained results, Extreme learning machine (ELM) as an authentic prediction method has been concurrently used. The variable selection procedure is to choose the most dominant parameters affecting the ultimate strengths of FRC rectangular columns subjected to simulated seismic loading. Accordingly, the results have shown that ANFIS-PSO has successfully predicted the seismic lateral load with R² = 0.857 and 0.902 for the test and train phase, respectively, nominated as the lateral load prediction estimator. On the other hand, in case of compressive strength prediction, ELM is to predict the compressive strength with R² = 0.657 and 0.862 for test and train phase, respectively. The results have shown that the seismic lateral force trend is more predictable than the compressive strength of FRC rectangular columns, in which the best results belong to the lateral force prediction. Compressive strength prediction has illustrated a significant deviation above 40 Mpa which could be related to the considerable non-linearity and possible empirical shortcomings. Finally, employing ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-PSO techniques to evaluate the seismic response of FRC are a promising reliable approach to be replaced for high cost and time-consuming experimental tests.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.129-169
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to experiment and simulate the newly-updated Second Generation Model for Korea (SGM-Korea). With the updated model, we tried to simulate effect of carbon tax on $CO_2$ emissions and other macroeconomic variables for Korea. The baseline data are compared with projected profiles by various scenarios to evaluate its performance. Our contribution in this study is to having up-graded the model from its earlier version by building new hybrid input-output table based on 2000 input-output and energy balanced tables. According to our estimation, total $CO_2$ emission in Korea has already increased in 2000 to about 1.86 times the 1990 figure. The level of carbon tax required for the current level of $CO_2$ emission to be reduced to the 1995 or 2000 level seems to be too high for Korean economy to bear. It is possible to find a reasonable level of carbon tax, however, if it can combine it with improvement of energy efficiency at the rate of 0.5% to 1% per year. For Korea to meet its obligation to reduce $CO_2$ emissions, therefore, it is imperative for her to improve energy efficiency as well as to develop alternative energy source reducing its dependence on fossil fuel.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.445-457
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• 2017

In this study, we developed an approach to better account for uncertainties in estimated contributions from fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) modeling. Our approach computes a Concentration Correction Factor (CCF) which is a ratio of observed concentrations to baseline model concentrations. We multiply modeled direct contribution estimates with CCF to obtain revised contributions. Overall, the modeling system showed reasonably good performance, correlation coefficient R of 0.82 and normalized mean bias of 2%, although the model underestimated some PM species concentrations. We also noticed that model biases vary seasonally. We compared contribution estimates of major source sectors before and after applying CCFs. We observed that different source sectors showed variable magnitudes of sensitivities to the CCF application. For example, the total primary $PM_{2.5}$ contribution was increased $2.4{\mu}g/m^3$ or 63% after the CCF application. Out of a $2.4{\mu}g/m^3$ increment, line sources and area source made up $1.3{\mu}g/m^3$ and $0.9{\mu}g/m^3$ which is 92% of the total contribution changes. We postulated two major reasons for variations in estimated contributions after the CCF application: (1) monthly variability of unadjusted contributions due to emission source characteristics and (2) physico-chemical differences in environmental conditions that emitted precursors undergo. Since emissions-to-$PM_{2.5}$ concentration conversion rate is an important piece of information to prioritize control strategy, we examined the effects of CCF application on the estimated conversion rates. We found that the application of CCFs can alter the rank of conversion efficiencies of source sectors. Finally, we discussed caveats of our current approach such as no consideration of ion neutralization which warrants further studies.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.58
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• pp.3-33
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to examine the problems in exercising buyer's right to claim damages for the breach of contract by the seller in international sales contract and to suggest reasonable counter-measures. The main contents are as follows: First, this author analyzed the principles of the seller's liability for damages in detail and examined the methods for the calculation of damages on the basis of Arts.74~77. As these articles are found to be insufficient in practical application, this author further examined the UNIDROIT Principles(2004) to confirm whether these Principles can fill the gaps of CISG or not, which turned out their gap-filling functions. Second, this author tried to find any expected problems when the buyer resorts to the right to claim damages in case of the seller's breach of contract including the estimation of damages, the burden of proof, causation, the proof of appropriateness for avoidance, the proof of buyer's obligation to mitigate the loss and so on. The reason is that these problems may cause a lot of difficulties in real business. As result, many buyers have given up their reasonable rights to claim damages so far. Finally, from the buyer's perspective, this author would like to suggest a liquidated damage clause(LD Clause) which gives the buyer to received a specified sum in case of seller's non-performance and/or a demand guarantee(or standby L/C) which guarantees buyer to secure unconditional payment independent of the underlying contract. For these purposes, the buyer should try to insert the LD Clause and/or Guarantee Clause in the contract when the buyer and the seller negotiate the sales contract. Also there are a lot of considerations and limitations in using the LD Clause and the Guarantee Clause in their real business, mainly dependent up bargain power between the seller and the buyer, for which this author promise to examine in detail in the future.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.77-83
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• 2014

Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.167-179
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• 2002

In this paper, we propose a new acoustic model for characterizing segmental features and an algorithm based upon a general framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in order to compensate the weakness of HMM assumptions. The segmental features are represented as a trajectory of observed vector sequences by a polynomial regression function because the single frame feature cannot represent the temporal dynamics of speech signals effectively. To apply the segmental features to pattern classification, we adopted segmental HMM(SHMM) which is known as the effective method to represent the trend of speech signals. SHMM separates observation probability of the given state into extra- and intra-segmental variations that show the long-term and short-term variabilities, respectively. To consider the segmental characteristics in acoustic model, we present segmental-feature HMM(SFHMM) by modifying the SHMM. The SFHMM therefore represents the external- and internal-variation as the observation probability of the trajectory in a given state and trajectory estimation error for the given segment, respectively. We conducted several experiments on the TIMIT database to establish the effectiveness of the proposed method and the characteristics of the segmental features. From the experimental results, we conclude that the proposed method is valuable, if its number of parameters is greater than that of conventional HMM, in the flexible and informative feature representation and the performance improvement.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.140-147
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• 2012

This study developed a flowerbed type infiltration system that could control the amount of runoff discharge under a certain level estimated its proper design infiltration rate, and analyzed the effects of its implementation. Analyzing the performance of infiltration system is the one of the essential processes that should be under review to predict its effects after implementation when a rainwater infiltration system is included in a district-based plan. To estimate the unit design infiltration rate of this system, the runoff decrease effect was analyzed by varying the unit infiltration rate of the system applied to the parking lot adjacent to the Korea Institute of Construction Technology laboratory building by using a water balance analysis program. After varying the unit design infiltration to $0.1{\sim}3m^3/m^2.day$ to analyze the variation in the rate of runoff, 80% of the runoff was infiltrated at $1.0m^3/m^2.day$, and the unit infiltration design rate at the time was 0.0416(m3/m2.hr). It was also found that the unit design infiltration rate obtained from a field infiltration test of the developed system was about $0.045m^3/hr$. Based on this study, it was possible that infiltration rate is estimated to consider the economic scale and environmental effect. It is significant to apply the spatial plan of rainwater infiltration system as green infrastructure.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.26-37
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• 2009

Recently rapid environmental changes due to desertification and industrialization in China make a threat to Korea, especially during Asian Dust Event (ADE). This study was aimed to compare symptoms and behaviors related to ADE between Korea and China. We conducted questionnaires on self-reported symptoms and behaviors before and during ADE. Korean and Chinese subjects were grouped into children, adults, and elderly by nation (n=791). Statistical analyses were performed by $X^2$-test, Fisher's exact test, t-test and chow's test for comparing differences between Korean and Chinese. We estimated the odds ratio for perceived symptoms during ADE by preventive behavior, using Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE). The study indicated that there were significant differences between symptoms in Korea and those in China such as cold, cough, and sore throat, especially in elderly. Preventive behaviors such as avoiding outdoor activity and wearing sunglasses were more often performed in China than Korea. However wearing mask was more often performed in Korea than China. After adjusting for age, sex, educational level, and smoking status, the odds ratio (OR) of dry cough symptom in Korea was significantly decreased by closing the windows and wearing a mask during ADE. In China, the OR of dry cough symptom was decreased by wearing a mask and avoiding outdoor activity. We found that China which had higher performance of preventive behavior showed lower prevalence of symptoms during ADE than Korea. Also preventive behaviors could affects prevalence of symptoms during ADE. This results suggest that preventive behavior. could reduce symptoms during ADE and there are needed for. more attentions to reduce a threat of ADE.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.22 no.12
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• pp.2175-2185
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• 2000

Respiration rate should be a reasonable state variable for the activated sludge and could be used to simulate the performance of the activated sludge process. Toxic materials are classified into three groups, competitive, noncompetitive and uncompetitive. They increase/decrease the half saturation coefficient or specific growth rate. that means decreasing of the substrate removal capacity. In this research, a pilot-scale activated sludge process was operated under extended aeration method, and a representative noncompetitive inhibitor, acidic wastewater was applied to establish a respirometry-based toxicity model. Using this model. the correlation coefficient between measured and calculated respiration rate was 0.96 when acidic wastewater(pH 3.9~5.5) was introduced continuously to the aeration tank. Even though respiration rate was decreased by toxic effect of acidic wastewater, effluent substrate concentration represented to COD was deteriorated just a little bit. It might be caused by the low ratio of readily biodegradable substrate in the input substrate. Reduction of respiration rate by decreasing of input substrate concentration was much lower than that by acidic wastewater, and hence it was estimated that the possibility of false toxic alarm caused by decreasing of substrate concentration should be low.