PM_2.5 Simulations for the Seoul Metropolitan Area: (III) Application of the Modeled and Observed PM_2.5 Ratio on the Contribution Estimation

수도권 초미세먼지 농도모사: (III) 관측농도 대비 모사농도 비율 적용에 따른 기여도 변화 검토

In this study, we developed an approach to better account for uncertainties in estimated contributions from fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) modeling. Our approach computes a Concentration Correction Factor (CCF) which is a ratio of observed concentrations to baseline model concentrations. We multiply modeled direct contribution estimates with CCF to obtain revised contributions. Overall, the modeling system showed reasonably good performance, correlation coefficient R of 0.82 and normalized mean bias of 2%, although the model underestimated some PM species concentrations. We also noticed that model biases vary seasonally. We compared contribution estimates of major source sectors before and after applying CCFs. We observed that different source sectors showed variable magnitudes of sensitivities to the CCF application. For example, the total primary $PM_{2.5}$ contribution was increased $2.4{\mu}g/m^3$ or 63% after the CCF application. Out of a $2.4{\mu}g/m^3$ increment, line sources and area source made up $1.3{\mu}g/m^3$ and $0.9{\mu}g/m^3$ which is 92% of the total contribution changes. We postulated two major reasons for variations in estimated contributions after the CCF application: (1) monthly variability of unadjusted contributions due to emission source characteristics and (2) physico-chemical differences in environmental conditions that emitted precursors undergo. Since emissions-to-$PM_{2.5}$ concentration conversion rate is an important piece of information to prioritize control strategy, we examined the effects of CCF application on the estimated conversion rates. We found that the application of CCFs can alter the rank of conversion efficiencies of source sectors. Finally, we discussed caveats of our current approach such as no consideration of ion neutralization which warrants further studies.