• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.147-160
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• 2020

A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.1-7
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• 2018

As part of a research dedicated to the field evaluation of the durability of concrete subjected to freezing-thawing, this study analyzes the relationship between the surface roughness and the relative dynamic elastic modulus through image analysis. Four mix compositions with water-to-binder ratios (W/B) of 40%, 50%, 60% and 70% and without AE agent were considered to provoke early freezing. The basic physical properties of the mixes including the relative dynamic elastic modulus and the compressive strength were first evaluated experimentally according to W/B. Then, tests were performed to measure the surface roughness followed by photographs and SEM image analysis. The measured surface roughness tended to increase with larger number of freezing-thawing cycles regardless of W/B. The relative dynamic elastic modulus appeared to increase gradually with the number of cycles for the relatively denser mixes with W/B of 40% and 50%. Besides, the surface roughness increased only at rupture for the mixes with W/B of 60% and 70%. Moreover, the analysis of the photographs of the surface of the mixes with W/B of 40% and 50% revealed that the degradation progressed gradually from the surface with the freezing-thawing cycles. However, for the mixes with W/B of 60% and 70%, apparent change of the surface remained very insignificant until rupture at which damage like cracking could be observed. Consequently, the analysis of surface photograph or the measurement of the surface roughness presented some limitation in assessing the degree of freezing-thawing-induced degradation in case of relatively porous specimens. On the other hand, the photograph and surface roughness appeared to be sufficient for assessing such degradation for the mixes with W/B of 40% and 50%. Accordingly, the image of the surface and the surface roughness are potentially applicable on site for the assessment of freezing-thawing damages in relatively dense mixes.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2020

The IOPC Fund general assembly reported that the International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (known as the HNS Convention) will meet the requirement for the convention to take ef ect between 2021 and 2022. When the convention comes into effect, the liability-limit insurance of the HNS transport ship will be enforced and the shipper receiving the HNS will pay the share of the contribution from the International Fund for damages exceeding the limit of the ship's liability insurance. Korea is one of the major shipping and shipper countries in the world; thus, this study aimed to the need to analyze the effect of the convention on the related industries. The survey of ships and contribution targets analyzed the research data of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. The P&I premium estimation was reviewed by the Korea Shipping Association and the K P&I as insured ships. In addition, the contribution of the HNS cargo volume was analyzed in an annual report by a representative international association for each cargo. About 1,500 ocean-going and domestic vessels have been identified as ships subject to the convention. The effect of changes in premiums under the convention was minimal for most ships. The effect of the shipping industry is expected, with about 150 domestic tankers expected to increase insurance premiums. In the case of shipper industries, 52 freight terminals were found to be eligible for the payment of the share of the international fund, as the proportion of freight volume in Korea was ranked second to fourth in the world by individual HNS accounts. This implies the obligation to pay contributions according to the convention. Considering the status of HNS transport ships entering and leaving ports and the quantity of HNS cargo, it can be concluded that the validity of Korea's convention is sufficient and that, it is necessary to coordinate with global major shipper countries.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.119-138
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• 2017

Recently, SNS has become an important channel for marketing as well as personal communication. However, cybercrime has also evolved with the development of information and communication technology, and illegal advertising is distributed to SNS in large quantity. As a result, personal information is lost and even monetary damages occur more frequently. In this study, we propose a method to analyze which sentences and documents, which have been sent to the SNS, are related to financial fraud. First of all, as a conceptual framework, we developed a matrix of conceptual characteristics of cybercriminality on SNS and emergency management. We also suggested emergency management process which consists of Pre-Cybercriminality (e.g. risk identification) and Post-Cybercriminality steps. Among those we focused on risk identification in this paper. The main process consists of data collection, preprocessing and analysis. First, we selected two words 'daechul(loan)' and 'sachae(private loan)' as seed words and collected data with this word from SNS such as twitter. The collected data are given to the two researchers to decide whether they are related to the cybercriminality, particularly financial fraud, or not. Then we selected some of them as keywords if the vocabularies are related to the nominals and symbols. With the selected keywords, we searched and collected data from web materials such as twitter, news, blog, and more than 820,000 articles collected. The collected articles were refined through preprocessing and made into learning data. The preprocessing process is divided into performing morphological analysis step, removing stop words step, and selecting valid part-of-speech step. In the morphological analysis step, a complex sentence is transformed into some morpheme units to enable mechanical analysis. In the removing stop words step, non-lexical elements such as numbers, punctuation marks, and double spaces are removed from the text. In the step of selecting valid part-of-speech, only two kinds of nouns and symbols are considered. Since nouns could refer to things, the intent of message is expressed better than the other part-of-speech. Moreover, the more illegal the text is, the more frequently symbols are used. The selected data is given 'legal' or 'illegal'. To make the selected data as learning data through the preprocessing process, it is necessary to classify whether each data is legitimate or not. The processed data is then converted into Corpus type and Document-Term Matrix. Finally, the two types of 'legal' and 'illegal' files were mixed and randomly divided into learning data set and test data set. In this study, we set the learning data as 70% and the test data as 30%. SVM was used as the discrimination algorithm. Since SVM requires gamma and cost values as the main parameters, we set gamma as 0.5 and cost as 10, based on the optimal value function. The cost is set higher than general cases. To show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper, we compared the proposed method with MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation), Term Frequency, and Collective Intelligence method. Overall accuracy and was used as the metric. As a result, the overall accuracy of the proposed method was 92.41% of illegal loan advertisement and 77.75% of illegal visit sales, which is apparently superior to that of the Term Frequency, MLE, etc. Hence, the result suggests that the proposed method is valid and usable practically. In this paper, we propose a framework for crisis management caused by abnormalities of unstructured data sources such as SNS. We hope this study will contribute to the academia by identifying what to consider when applying the SVM-like discrimination algorithm to text analysis. Moreover, the study will also contribute to the practitioners in the field of brand management and opinion mining.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.515-523
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• 2013

The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.264-272
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• 2013

Climate changes have caused not only changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, but also temperature and precipitation. The damages on agricultural production system will be increased by heavy rainfall and snow. In this study we assessed vulnerability of crop cultivation facility and animal husbandry facility by heavy rain in 232 agricultural districts. The climate data of 2000 years were used for vulnerability analysis on present status and the data derived from A1B scenario were used for the assessment in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2100, respectively. Vulnerability of local districts was evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and each index was determined from selected alternative variables. Collected data were normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Jeonla-do and Gangwon-do showed higher climate exposures than the other provinces. The higher sensitivity to abnormal weather was observed from the regions that have large-scale cultivation facility complex compared to the other regions and vulnerability to abnormal weather also was higher at these provinces. In the projected estimation based on the SRES A1B, the vulnerability of controlled agricultural facility in Korea totally increased, especially was dramatic between 2000's and 2020 year.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.11
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• pp.81-97
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• 1972

Experiments and investigations were done basically and practically for the purpose of labor saving in paddy rice cultivation especially on Homizil i.e. hoeing and herbicide, 1969. 8 concrete tanks were established on the open base of Keon Kuk University for comparison of percolation, dissolved oxygen and yield test of rice in the paddy plot of tank. The dimension of the bottom of each tank is square meter. Each of the 4 of the 8 tanks is 21cm in height and each of the remaining 4 tanks is 36cm. Each tank has a system that comprises 2 sets of tubes, each of which has 20 holes of 5mm in diameter scattered every side and is covered with nylon cloth taking water in the tank. One set consists of 4 P.V.C tubes. The first set is situated 8cm below the top of the tank and the second set is located at bottom layer inside the tank. The 4 tubes of each set are combined together and led to the glass tube which protects from inside to outside. And this inside-outside glass tube is connected to the small rubber tube. Also a glass tube is set 4cm below the top of the tank. Paddy loam was filled on sand in each of the tanks in the soil depth of either 15cm or 30cm. The depth of sand was 5cm in the soil depth of 15cm and 10cm in the soil depth of 30cm. (Fig. 1, 2 and 3). The paddy rice was grown in the tank. The percolation of water, the dissolved oxygen and the yield of rice were observed in the tank. And the dissolved oxygen was detected by Winkler method. A sandy paddy field of heavy percolation was selected at the field of the National Agricultural Material Inspection Center in Seoul. It was divided into 9 plots. These plots were given 3 treatments: (A) not hoeing, (B) hoeing one time and (C) hoeing two times. These treatments were replicated 3 times along the latin square design. The paddy rice was grown and sprayed with Stam F-34 in the all plots for the purpose of killing weeds before hoeing. The two types of paddy of field i.e. one for normal percolation and the other for ill drainage were selected at Iri Crop Experiment Station, Jeonla-Bukdo. Each field was divided into 24 plots for 8 treatments. They are: (A) not hoeing; (B) hoeing one time; (C) hoeing two times; (D) not hoeing but treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (E) hoeing one time and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (F) hoeing two times and weeding one time a], o treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (G) hoeing two times and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon, ; (H) usual manner. The labor hours and expenses needed for weeding in the paddy by hoeing were investigated in a farmer at Suwon and the price of herbicide and the yield of rice were taken out at Iri, Jeonla-Bukdo. The results obtained from the above experiments and investigations are as follows: 1. The relationship between percolation and dissolved oxygen shows that a very small amount of oxygen is detected in the soil water under 2cm below surface of earth in the paddy even when percolation is over 4.0cm per 24 hours (Tab. 1). 2. The relationship between percolation and yield of rice shows that the yield of rice increases in the percolation of 0cm and 1.5cm per 24 hours and decreases in the percolation of 2.5cm and 3.4cm in the plot of the 15cm ploughing depth and increases in the percolation of 1.4cm and 3.0cm and decreases in the percolation of 0cm and 4.0cm in the plot of 30cm ploughing depth (Tab. 1 and Fig. 5). 3. The yield of paddy weeded with Stam F-34 in the sandy field of heavy percolation in Seoul was 3.02 tons in the plot of not hoeing, 2.99 tons in hoeing one time and 3.05 tons in hoeing two times per hectare (Tab. 5). 4.1). 4. 1) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of normal percolation at Iri was 338kg in not hoeing, 379kg in hoeing one time, 383kg in hoeing two times, 413kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 433kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 399kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 420kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 418kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-1). 2) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of ill drainage at Iri was 323kg in not hoeing, 363kg in hoeing one time, 342kg in hoeing two times, 388kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 425kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 427kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 449kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 412kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-2). 5. 1) The labor hours for weeding by hoeing was 37.1 hours but 53.5 hours if hours for meal, smoking and so on are included, and the expenses including labor cost needed for weeding by hoeing in the paddy rice was 2, 346 Won per 10 ares at Suwon (Tab. 7). 2) The labor hours for weeding by spraying herbicide with hand sprayer in the paddy rice was about 5 hours per 10 ares at Suwon and the expenses for weeding by spraying herbicide in the paddy rice was 750 Won but 1130 Won if the loss by decrement of rice in the paddy field of ill drainage per 10 ares is calculated in estimation at Iri (Tab. 8). From these observations and investigations it is known that using of some kinds of herbicides Saves labor and expenses of weeding, almost without giving damages to the rice itself, in the field of normal or heavy percolation comparing usual manner of hoeing.