• 제목/요약/키워드: error prediction

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Prediction for the Error due to Role Eccentricity in Hole-drilling Method Using Backpropagation Neural Network (역전파신경망을 이용한 구멍뚫기법의 편심 오차 예측)

  • Kim, Cheol;Yang, Won-Ho;Heo, Sung-Pil;Chung, Ki-Hyun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.436-444
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    • 2002
  • The measurement of residual stresses by the hole-drilling method has been commonly used to evaluate residual stresses in structural members. In this method, eccentricity can usually occur between the hole center and rosette gage center. In this study, the error due to the hole eccentricity is predicted using the artificial neural network. The neural network has trained training examples of stress ratio, normalized eccentricity, off-centered direction and stress error using backpropagation learning process. The prediction results of the error using the trained neural network are good agreement with FE analyzed ones.

Forecasting of Motorway Traffic Flow based on Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 활용한 고속도로 교통류 예측)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo
    • Journal of Urban Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to find the factors that reduce prediction error in traffic volume using highway traffic volume data. The ARIMA model was used to predict the day, and it was confirmed that weekday and weekly characteristics were distinguished by prediction error. The forecasting results showed that weekday characteristics were prominent on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, and forecast errors including MAPE and MAE on Sunday were about 15% points and about 10 points higher than weekday characteristics. Also, on Friday, the forecast error was high on weekdays, similar to Sunday's forecast error, unlike Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, which had weekday characteristics. Therefore, when forecasting the time series belonging to Friday, it should be regarded as a weekly characteristic having characteristics similar to weekend rather than considering as weekday.

Performance improvement of adaptivenoise canceller with the colored noise (유색잡음에 대한 적응잡음제거기의 성능향성)

  • 박장식;조성환;손경식
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.2339-2347
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    • 1997
  • The performance of the adaptive noise canceller using LMS algorithm is degraded by the gradient noise due to target speech signals. An adaptive noise canceller with speech detector was proposed to reduce this performande degradation. The speech detector utilized the adaptive prediction-error filter adapted by the NLMS algorithm. This paper discusses to enhance the performance of the adaptive noise canceller forthecorlored noise. The affine projection algorithm, which is known as faster than NLMS algorithm for correlated signals, is used to adapt the adaptive filter and the adaptive prediction error filter. When the voice signals are detected by the speech detector, coefficients of adaptive filter are adapted by the sign-error afine projection algorithm which is modified to reduce the miaslignment of adaptive filter coefficients. Otherwirse, they are adapted by affine projection algorithm. To obtain better performance, the proper step size of sign-error affine projection algorithm is discussed. As resutls of computer simulation, it is shown that the performance of the proposed ANC is better than that of conventional one.

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System identification using the feedback loop (궤환 제어를 이용한 시스템 규명)

  • 정훈상;박영진
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.409-412
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    • 2001
  • Identification of systems operating in closed loop has long been of prime interest in industrial applications. The fundamental problem with closed-loop data is the correlation between the unmeasurable noise and the input. This is the reason why several methods that work in open loop fail when applied to closed-loop data. The prediction error based approaches to the closed-loop system are divided to direct method and indirect method. Both of direct and indirect methods are known to be applied to the closed-loop data without critical modification. But the direct method induces the bias error in the experimental frequency response function and this bias error may deteriorates the parameter estimation performance

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A Study on Deflection of Tool in Ball-End Milling (볼 엔드밀 가공시 공구변형에 관한 연구)

  • Du, Seung;Seo, Han-Won;Yoo, Ki-Hyun;Seo, Nam-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.721-724
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a prediction of tool deflection and resulting machining error fur sculptured surface productions in the ball-end milling process. Due to the different materials and the dimensions of the tool holder and cutter, a cantilever hem model with three uniform sections is proposed fur the tool deflection model. The ability of this model has been verified by a machining experiment. In this study, cutting force and machining error are investigated. This paper provides the prediction of machining error for sculptured surface to improve machining quality for industrial application.

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Prediction for the Error of Hole Eccentricity in Hole-drilling Method Using Neural Network (신경회로망을 이용한 구멍뚫기법의 편심 오차 예측)

  • Kim, Cheol;Yang, Won-Ho;Chung, Ki-Hyun;Hyun, Cheol-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.956-963
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    • 2001
  • The measurement of residual stresses by the hole-drilling method has been commonly used to evaluate residual stresses in structural members. In this method, eccentricity can usually occur between the hole center and rosette gage center. In this study, the error due to the hole eccentricity is predicted using the artificial neural network. The neural network has trained training examples of stress ratio, normalized eccentricity, off-centered direction and stress error using backpropagation loaming process. The prediction results of the error using the trained neural network are good agreement with FE analyzed ones.

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Standard Error Analysis of Creep-Life Prediction Parameters of Type 316LN Stainless Steels (Type 316LN 강의 크리프 수명예측 파라메타의 표준오차 분석)

  • Kim, Woo-Gon;Yoon, Song-Nam;Ryu, Woo-Seog
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2004
  • A number of creep data were collected and filed for type 316LN stainless steels through literature survey and experimental data produced in KAERI. Using these data, polynomial equations for predicting creep life were obtained for Larson Miller (L-M), Qrr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D) and Manson-Haferd (M-H) parametric methods. In order to find out the suitability for them, the relative standard error (RSE) and standard error of estimate (SEE) values were obtained by statistical process of creep data. The O-S-D parameter showed better fitting to creep-rupture data than the L-M or the M-H parameters, and the three parametric methods did not generate the large difference in the SEE and the RSE values.

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An ARMA Model Identification Method By Direct Whitening Of Prediction Error and Its Application to Estimation of Gyroscope Random Error (예측오차 직접 백색화에 의한 ARMA 모델 식별 기법 및 자이로 불규칙오차 추정에의 적용)

  • Seong, Sang-Man;Lee, Dal-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.423-427
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we proposed a new ARMA model identification which estimate the parameters to make the current prediction error uncorrelated with the past one. As good properties of the proposed method, we show the uniqueness, consistency of the estimate and asymptotic normality of the estimation error. Via simulation results, we show that the proposed method give good estimates for various systems which have different power spectrum. Moreover, the estimation of gyroscope random errors shows that the proposed method is applicable to the real data.

An Improved Error Expansion Reversible Watermarking for 3D Mesh Model

  • Dong, Ke-Ming;Kim, Hyoung-Joong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.979-981
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, a new scheme to improve both the capacity and distortion performance for error-prediction method is proposed. For every triangle mesh, two vertices were selected to predict the rest vertex, and the prediction error distances which were vertical and paralleled to the edge between these two vertices would be used to embed two units of secret date amount. We sort the meshes before embedding according to predicted error in order to decrease the distortion. Experiment results show that our approach increase the capacity and decrease the distortion as compared to the original algorithm.

Short-term Distributed Rainfall Prediction using Stochastic Error Field Modeling

  • Kim, Sun-Min;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Takara, Kaoru
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.225-229
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    • 2005
  • 이류모형을 이용한 단기예측 레이더 강우자료와 관측 레이더자료의 비교를 통하여 얻어진 예측오차를 분석하였다. 임의 시점까지의 예측오차 장에 나타나는 확률분포 형태와 공간적 상관성을 분석하여 이들 특성을 반영하는 추후의 예측오차 장을 모의할 수 있었다. 모의된 예측오차 장과 합성된 단기예측 강우 장은 이류모형을 이용한 예측에 따른 불확실성 을 추계학적으로 반영한 예측강우를 제공한다.

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