• Title/Summary/Keyword: equilibrium analysis

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Study on the Forecasting and Relationship of Busan Cargo by ARIMA and VAR·VEC (ARIMA와 VAR·VEC 모형에 의한 부산항 물동량 예측과 관련성연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2020
  • More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

Moisture Content Prediction Model Development for Major Domestic Wood Species Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광분석법을 이용한 국산 주요 수종의 섬유포화점 이하 함수율 예측 모델 개발)

  • Yang, Sang-Yun;Han, Yeonjung;Park, Jun-Ho;Chung, Hyunwoo;Eom, Chang-Deuk;Yeo, Hwanmyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.311-319
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    • 2015
  • Near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy was employed to develop moisture content prediction model of pitch pine (Pinus rigida), red pine (Pinus densiflora), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) wood below fiber saturation point. NIR reflectance spectra of specimens ranging from 1000 nm to 2400 nm were acquired after humidifying specimens to reach several equilibrium moisture contents. To determine the optimal moisture contents prediction model, 5 mathematical preprocessing methods (moving average (smoothing point: 3), baseline, standard normal variate (SNV), mean normalization, Savitzky-Golay $2^{nd}$ derivatives (polynomial order: 3, smoothing point: 11)) were applied to reflectance spectra of each specimen as 8 combinations. After finishing mathematical preprocessings, partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis was performed to each modified spectra. Consequently, the mathematical preprocessing methods deriving optimal moisture content prediction were 1) moving average/SNV for pitch pine and red pine, 2) moving average/SNV/Savitzky-golay $2^{nd}$ derivatives for Korean pine and yellow poplar. Every model contained three principal components.

Emprical Tests of Braess Paradox (The Case of Namsan 2nd Tunnel Shutdown) (브라이스역설에 대한 실증적 검증 (남산2호터널 폐쇄사례를 중심으로))

  • 엄진기;황기연;김익기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 1999
  • The Purpose of this study is to test whether Braess Paradox (BP) can be revealed in a real world network. Fer the study, Namsan 2nd tunnel case is chosen, which was shut down for 3 years for repair works. The revelation of BP is determined by analyzing network-wise traffic impacts followed by the tunnel closure. The analysis is conducted using a network simulation model called SECOMM developed for the congestion management of the Seoul metropolitan area. Also, the existence of BP is further identified by a before-after traffic survey result of the major arterials nearby the Namsan 2nd tunnel. The model estimation expected that the closure of Namsan 2nd tunnel improve the network-wise average traffic speed from 21.95km/h to 22.21km/h when the travel demand in the study area and congestion Pricing scheme on Namsan 1st & 3rd tunnels remain unchanged. In addition, the real world monitoring results of the corridors surrounding Namsan 2nd tunnel show that the average speed increases from 29.53km/h to 30.37km/h after the closure. These findings clearly identify the BP Phenomenon is revealed in this case.

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Effects of Manual Intervention and Self-Corrective Exercise Models of the General Coordinative Manipulation on Balance Restoration of Spine and Extremities Joints

  • Moon, Sang Eun;Kim, Mi Hwa
    • Journal of International Academy of Physical Therapy Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.573-587
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was conducted in order to analyze the effects of the manual intervention and self-corrective exercise models of general coordinative manipulation(GCM) on the balance restoration of spine & extremities joints with distortions and mal-alignment areas. The subjects were the members who visited GCM Musculoskeletal Prevent Exercise Center from March 1 2012 to December 31 2013 because of spine & extremities joints distortion and mal-alignments, poor posture, and body type correction. All subjects were diagnosed with the four types of the GBT diagnosis. And according to the standards of the mobility vs stability types of the upper & lower body, they were classified into Group 1(40 persons) and Group 2(24 persons). For every other day for three times a week, GCM intervention models were applied to all subjects for four weeks, adding up to 12 times in total. Then the balance restoration effects were re-evaluated with the same methods. The results are as follows. 1) Balance restoration effects of VASdp(Visual analysis scale pain & discomfort) and ER(Equilibrium reaction: ER) came out higher in GCM body type(GBT) II III IV of Group 1. 2) In case of balance restoration effects in Moire and postural evaluation areas, Group 1 was higher and cervical and scapular girdle were higher in Group 2. The balance restoration of the four GBT types was significant in all regions(p<.05), and the scapular girdle came out as high in the order of GBTII IV I. 3) In case of thoracic-lumbar scoliosis and head rotation facial asymmetric cervical scoliosis ribcage forward, the balance restoration effects of the upper body postural evaluation areas came out the highest in Group 1 and Group 2, respectively. The balance restoration effects of the four GBT types were significant in all regions(p<.05), and came out the highest in lumbar scoliosis GBTIII I, ribcage forward and thoracic scoliosis GBTII IV. 4) The balance restoration effects of the lower body postural evaluation areas came out higher in Group 1 and Group 2 for pelvis girdle deviation patella high umbilicus tilt and hallux valgus foot longitudinal arch: FLA patella direction, respectively. The balance restoration effects of the four GBT types were significant in all regions(p<.05), and came out the highest in pelvis girdle deviation GBTIII I and patella high-direction GBTIV II I. 5) The balance restoration effects between the same GBT came out significant (p<.05) in all evaluation areas and items. The conclusions of this study was the manual intervention and self-corrective exercise models of the GCM about the mal-alignment of the spine & extremities joints across the whole body indicated high balance restoration effects(p<.05) in spine & extremities joints in all evaluation areas.

Characteristics of Buckling Load and Bifurcation in Accordance with Rise-span Ratio of Space Truss Considering Initial Imperfection (초기 불완전성을 고려한 공간 트러스의 분기좌굴과 라이즈-스팬 비에 따른 임계하중 특성)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Shon, Su-Deok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.337-348
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated the characteristics of bifurcation and the instability due to the initial imperfection of the space truss, which is sensitive to the initial conditions, and the calculated buckling load by the analysis of Eigen-values and the determinant of tangential stiffness. A two-free nodes model, a star dome, and a three-ring dome model were selected as case studies in order to examine the unstable phenomenon due to the sensitivity to Eigen mode, and the influence of the rise-span ratio and the load parameter on the buckling load were analyzed. The sensitivity to the imperfection of the two-free nodes model changed the critical path after reaching the limit point through the bifurcation mode, and the buckling load level was reduced by the increase in the amount of imperfection. The two sensitive buckling patterns for the model can be explained by investigating the displaced position of the free node, and the asymmetric Eigen mode was a major influence on the unstable behavior due to the initial imperfection. The sensitive mode was similar to the in-extensional mechanism basis of the simplified model. Since the rise-span ratio was higher, the effect of local buckling is more prominent than the global buckling in the star dome, and bifurcation on the equilibrium path occurring as the value of the load parameter was higher. Additionally, the buckling load levels of the star dome and the three-ring model were about 50-70% and 80-90% of the limit point, respectively.

A Preliminary Geomorphic Overview of Late Quaternary Glacier Fluctuations in the South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica (서남극 남쉐틀랜드 군도의 제4기 후기 빙하 활동의 지형학적 고찰)

  • Lim, Hyoun-Soo;Yoon, Ho-Il;Lee, Yong-Il;Kim, Yea-Dong;Owen Lewis A.;Seong, Yeong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.5 s.116
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    • pp.513-526
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    • 2006
  • The timing and extent of glaciations during the Late Quaternary in the South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica were defined using field mapping, geomorphic analysis and radiocarbon dating. Landforms of glacial erosion and deposition, in particular subglacial meltwater channel erosion, suggest that at least three glaciations occurred during the late Quaternary within the study region. During the global LGM, glacial troughs (such as Maxwell Bay and Admiralty Bay) were overdeepened by an ice stream moving south from $an\sim1000m-thick$ ice cap centered on the present-day continental shelf to the north. This ice was responsible for the subglacial meltwater channel erosion, and glacial polished and striated bedrock on the Fildes Peninsula. The recent local glaciations occurred about 2,000 years ago and during Little Ice Age (LIA). During these glaciations, glaciers were less extensive than the previous one and less erosive as a cold-based ice

Measurements and Modeling of the Activity Coefficients and Solubilities of L-alanine in Aqueous Electrolyte Solutions (전해질 수용액에서 L-Alanine의 활동도계수와 용해도의 측정 및 모델링)

  • Lee, Bong-Seop;Kim, Ki-Chang
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.519-533
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    • 2010
  • Activity oefficients and solubilities of L-Alanine in aqueous solutions containing each of four electrolytes(NaCl, KCl, $NaNO_3$ and $KNO_3$) were measured at 298.15 K. The measurements of activity coefficients were carried out in the electrochemical cell coupled with two ion-selective electrodes(cation and anion), and the solubilities were measured by the gravimetric analysis of saturated solutions in equilibrium with the solid phase of L-alanine. To model the activity coefficients and solubilities of amino acid in the amino acid/electrolyte aqueous solutions, thermodynamic relations of the residual Helmholtz free energy in the amino acid/electrolyte aqueous solutions were developed based on the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory(PC-SAFT) combined with the primitive mean spherical approximation(primitive-MSA). In the present model, it is assumed that the zwitterions of L-alanine are associated with each other and cross-associated with water molecules, and also cross-associated with the cation and anion dissociated from an electrolyte(inorganic salt). The activity coefficients and solubilities of L-Alanine calculated from the theoretical model proposed in this work are found to be well agreeable with experimental data.

Game Theory Based Co-Evolutionary Algorithm (GCEA) (게임 이론에 기반한 공진화 알고리즘)

  • Sim, Kwee-Bo;Kim, Ji-Youn;Lee, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2004
  • Game theory is mathematical analysis developed to study involved in making decisions. In 1928, Von Neumann proved that every two-person, zero-sum game with finitely many pure strategies for each player is deterministic. As well, in the early 50's, Nash presented another concept as the basis for a generalization of Von Neumann's theorem. Another central achievement of game theory is the introduction of evolutionary game theory, by which agents can play optimal strategies in the absence of rationality. Not the rationality but through the process of Darwinian selection, a population of agents can evolve to an Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS) introduced by Maynard Smith. Keeping pace with these game theoretical studies, the first computer simulation of co-evolution was tried out by Hillis in 1991. Moreover, Kauffman proposed NK model to analyze co-evolutionary dynamics between different species. He showed how co-evolutionary phenomenon reaches static states and that these states are Nash equilibrium or ESS introduced in game theory. Since the studies about co-evolutionary phenomenon were started, however many other researchers have developed co-evolutionary algorithms, in this paper we propose Game theory based Co-Evolutionary Algorithm (GCEA) and confirm that this algorithm can be a solution of evolutionary problems by searching the ESS.To evaluate newly designed GCEA approach, we solve several test Multi-objective Optimization Problems (MOPs). From the results of these evaluations, we confirm that evolutionary game can be embodied by co-evolutionary algorithm and analyze optimization performance of GCEA by comparing experimental results using GCEA with the results using other evolutionary optimization algorithms.

Effect of Storage Temperature and Humidity on Water Adsorption and Rancidity of Peanuts (저장 온습도가 땅콩의 흡습 및 산패에 미치는 영향)

  • Koh, Ha-Young;Kwon, Yong-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.216-222
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    • 1989
  • Water adsorption characteristics and lipid rancidity of fresh and roasted Peanuts were investigated at $25{\sim}60^{\circ)C$ and $11{\sim}85%$ relative humidity. peanuts of 50g were reached to the equilibrium water content in 14 days at $40^{\circ}C$, in 30 days at $25^{\circ}C$, respectively, in all of the relative humidity. BET monolayer water contents were $2.19{\sim}2.69%$ in fresh peanuts and $2.47{\sim}2.67%$ in roasted ones as dry basis at $25{\sim}40^{\circ)C$. Zero order reaction rate of peroxide value(POV) were $8{\sim}21times$ lower as $0.032day^{-1}$ and $0.142day^{-1}$in fresh peanuts than those of $0.663day^{-1}$ and $1.120day^{-1}$ in roasted peanuts at water activity of 0.51, but those were showed the relatively smaller differences according to the water activity and temperature. The critical peroxide value(POV) and carbonyl value(CV) were determined as 15.0meq/kg and 4.7meq/kg at $60^{\circ}C$ $0.51a_w$ by the regression analysis between chemical and sensory evaluation.

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A Study on the Hydrolysis of Sarin and Soman by Merrifield-Type Diaminatedpolystyrene-Cu (II) Heterogeneous Polymers (Merrifield-Type Diaminatedpolystyrene-Cu (II) 불균일 촉매에 의한 Sarin과 Soman 분해반응 연구)

  • 정우영;계영식
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.164-175
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    • 2000
  • Three compounds of Cu(II)-loaded N,N,N'-trimethylethylenediaminated Merrifield-type polymers were synthesized with yields higher than 80%, and the hydrolysis reaction rates of O-isopropylmethyl-phosphonofluoridate(GB) and O-pinacolylmethylphosphonofluoridate (GD) catalyzed by them have been surveyed. GB and GD hydrolysis by Cu(II)-loaded polymers occurs via intermediate complex mechanism where rapid equilibrium to form intermediate complex between substrate and Cu(II)-loaded polymers($K_f$) is followed by rate determining hydrolysis step($k_1$). The measured activation parameters for $k_1$ are ${\Delta}H^{\ddag}$ : $17.75{\pm}0.98kJ/mol$ ${\Delta}S^{\ddag}$ / : $-218.42{\pm}3.35J/mol$ K, $E^{\circ}_a$ : $20.22{\pm}0.98kJ/mo1$ for GB and ${\Delta}H^{\ddag}$ / : $11.16{\pm}1.15kJ/mol,$${\Delta}S^{\ddag}$ /: $-258.57{\pm}3.93J/mol$ K, $E^{\circ}_a$ : $13.64{\pm}1.15 kJ/mol$ for GD. Standard enthalpy/entropy changes corresponding to the intermediate complex formation constant $K_f$ are ${\Delta}H^{\circ}$ : $37.05{\pm}2.19 kJ/mo1,$$ {\Delta}S^{\circ}$ : $163.12{\pm}7.49 J/mol$ K and ${\Delta}H^{\circ}$ : 418.59{\pm}2.04 kJ/mol,$ ${\Delta}S^{\circ}$ : 4111.92{\pm}6.98 J/mol$ K for GB and GD, respectively, The electron push-pull mechanism by Cu(II)-loaded polymers lowers the P-F bond breaking energy(~400 kJ/mol) to less than 1/20 compared to the case in which no Cu(II)-loaded resin presents. Analysis of $K_f$ and 4k_1$ over pH=6.5~8.0 range suggest that the GB and GD hydrolysis occurs intramolecularily with $pK_a$ =7.29 for ligated $H_2O$ and $t_{1/2}$=36.9 sec, $pK_a$ = 7.06 and $t_{1/2}$=177.7 sec for GB and GD, respectively.

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