• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.94-101
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• 2013

It is well known that uncertainty associated with soil sampling is bigger than that with analysis. In this research, uncertainties for soil sampling when assessing TPH and BTEX concentration in soils were quantified based on actual field data. It is almost impossible to assess exact contamination of the site regardless how carefully devised for sampling. Uncertainties associated with sample reduction for further chemical analysis were quantified approximately 10 times larger than those associated with core sampling on site. Bigger uncertainties occur when contamination level is low, sample quantity is small, and soil particle is coarse. To minimize the uncertainties on field, homogenization of soil sample is necessary and its procedures are proposed in this research as well.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.507-518
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• 2005

In the shear-lag analysis of structures deterministic procedure is insufficient to provide complete information. Probabilistic analysis is a holistic approach for analyzing shear-lag effects considering uncertainties in structural parameters. This paper proposes an efficient and accurate algorithm to analyze shear-lag effects of structures with parameter uncertainties. The proposed algorithm integrated the advantages of the response surface method (RSM), finite element method (FEM) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Uncertainties in the structural parameters can be taken into account in this algorithm. The algorithm is verified using independently generated finite element data. The proposed algorithm is then used to analyze the shear-lag effects of a simply supported beam with parameter uncertainties. The results show that the proposed algorithm based on the central composite design is the most promising one in view of its accuracy and efficiency. Finally, a parametric study was conducted to investigate the effect of each of the random variables on the statistical moment of structural stress response.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.143-164
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• 2008

Concern about perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) is growing nationally as well as globally. PFCs could be considered emerging POPs due to their environmentally persistent, bioaccumulative, and potentially harmful properties. Moreover. perfluoroalkylates (PFAs) such as PFOS and PFOA are reported to experience long-range transport (LRT) to the Arctic in spite of their low volatility and strong solubility. The possible pathways contributing to LRT have been proposed but are still in debate in combination with unclear source definition and uncertain physico-chemical properties. The environmental fate of PFCs is more complicated because of the presence of precursors that are degraded to PFAs and are extremely different from their daughters, PFAs. in physico-chemical properties. To what extent and through what pathways are human and wildlife exposed is determined by the environmental fate and distribution of PFCs. To define uncertainties in fate and distribution thus is critical to prevent erroneous policy and/or determination related with exposure and risk reduction. This article aimed to review controversy and/or uncertain issues for the environmental fate and distribution of PFCs and to prospect research topics necessary to dissolve uncertainties.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.547-560
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• 2018

This paper investigates the operation of the $H_{\infty}$ static output-feedback controller to reduce dynamic responses under seismic excitation on the five-story and benchmark 20 story building with parametric uncertainties. Linear matrix inequality (LMI) control theory is applied in this system and then to achieve the desired LMI formulations, some transformations of the LMI variables is used. Conversely uncertainties due to material properties, environmental loads such as earthquake and wind hazards make the uncertain system. This problem and its effects are studied in this research. Also to decrease the transition of large amount of data between sensors and controller, avoiding the disruption of whole control system and economy problems, the operation of the decentralized controllers is investigated in this paper. For this purpose the comparison between the performance of the centralized, fully decentralized and partial decentralized controllers in uncoupled and coupled cases is performed. Also, the effect of the changing the number of stories in substructures is considered. Based on the numerical results, the used control algorithm is very robust against the parametric uncertainties and structural responses are decreased considerably in all the control cases but partial decentralized controller in coupled form gets the closest results to the centralized case. The results indicate the high applicability of the used control algorithm in the tall shear buildings to reduce the structural responses and its robustness against the uncertainties.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.35-43
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• 2006

The eutrophication in lakes is caused by the inflow of excessive nitrogen and phosphorus, which are not only pollutants to reduce the value of water resource but also nutrients for algae growth that debases water quality. Several methods have been used to judge the eutrophication grades of lakes, but the judgment results can be different with one another even under same coditions because each method is different in judgment items and their standards. A method for overcoming the problem with the judgment of eutrophication grades is, therefore, developed in this study with the application of fuzzy theory. This method allows decision makers to represent the uncertainties (differences) of results by the existing judgment methods and also incorporate associated uncertainties directly into the judgment process, so the judgment results can be made that are more realistic and consistent than those made without taking uncertainty in account.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2003

ASTRO-F /FIS will carry out all sky survey in the wavelength from 50 to 200 ${\mu}m$. At far infrared, stars and galaxies may not be good calibration sources because the IR fluxes could be sensitive to the dust shell of stars and star formation activities of galaxies. On the other hand, asteroids could be good calibration sources at far infrared because of rather simple spectral energy distribution. Recent progresses in thermal models for asteroids enable us to calculate the far infrared flux fairly accurately. We have derived the Bond albedos and diameters for 559 asteroids based on the IRAS and ground based optical data. Using these thermal parameters and standard thermal model, we have calculated the spectral energy distributions of asteroids from 10 to 200 ${\mu}m$. We have found that more than $70\%$ of our sample asteroids have flux errors less than $10\%$ within the context of the best fitting thermal models. In order to assess flux uncertainties due to model parameters, we have computed SEDs by varing external parameters such as emissivity, beaming parameter and phase integral. We have found that about 100 asteroids can be modeled to be better than $5.8\%$ of flux uncertainties. The systematic effects due to uncertainties in phase integral are not so important.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.2179-2183
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• 2009

As urbanization is progressed, the network for distributing water in a basin become complex due to the spatial expansion and parameter uncertainties of water supply systems. When a long range water supply plan is determined, the total construction and operation cost has to be evaluated with the system components and parameter uncertainties as many as possible. In this paper, the robust optimization approach of Bertsimas and Sim is applied in a hypothetical system to find a solution which remains feasible under the possible parameter uncertainties having the correlation effect between the uncertain coefficients. The system components to supply, treatment, and transport water are included in the developed water supply system and construction and expansion of the system is allowed for a long-range period. In this approach, the tradeoff between system robustness and total cost of the system is evaluated in terms of the degree of conservatism which can be converted to the probability of constraint violation. As a result, the degree of conservatism increases, the total cost is increased due to the installation of large capacity of treatment and transportation systems. The applied robust optimization technique can be used to determine a long-range water supply plan with the consideration of system failure.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.651-676
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• 2022

Most of the experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies on the stability of functionally graded composites are deterministic, while there are full of complex interactions of variables with an inherently probabilistic nature, this paper presents a non-intrusive framework to investigate the stochastic nonlinear buckling behaviors of porous functionally graded cylindrical shells exposed to inevitable source-uncertainties. Euler-Lagrange equations are theoretically derived based on the three variable refined shear deformation theory. Closed-form solutions for the shell buckling loads are achieved by solving the deterministic eigenvalue problems. The analytical results are verified with numerical results obtained from finite element analyses that are conducted in the commercial software ABAQUS. The non-intrusive framework is completed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation with the verified closed-form solutions. The convergence studies are performed to determine the effective pseudorandom draws of the simulation. The accuracy and efficiency of the framework are verified with statistical results that are obtained from the first and second-order perturbation techniques. Eleven cases of individual and compound uncertainties are investigated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to figure out the five cases that have profound perturbative effects on the shell buckling loads. Complete probability distributions of the first three critical buckling loads are completely presented for each profound uncertainty case. The effects of the shell thickness, volume fraction index, and stochasticity degree on the shell buckling load under compound uncertainties are studied. There is a high probability that the shell has non-unique buckling modes in stochastic environments, which should be known for reliable analysis and design of engineering structures.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2002.07a
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• pp.627-630
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• 2002

A methodology based on factorial design and Motto Carlo methods is developed and implemented for incorporating uncertainties within a multiphase subsurface flow and transport simulation system. Due to uncertainties in intrinsic permeability and longitudinal dispersivity, the predicted output is also uncertain based on the well-developed multiphase compositional simulator. The simulation results reveal that the uncertainties in input parameters pose considerable influences on the predicted output, and the mean and variance of permeability will have significant impacts on the modeling output. The proposed method offers an effective tool for evaluating uncertainty in multiphase flow simulation system.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.441-457
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• 2018

Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.