• Title/Summary/Keyword: environmental prediction

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Regional Estimation of Site-specific Seismic Responses at Gyeongju by Building GIS-based Geotechnical Information System (GIS 기반의 지반 정보 시스템 구축을 통한 경주 지역 부지고유 지진 응답의 지역적 평가)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk;Chung, Choon-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 2008
  • The site-specific seismic responses and corresponding seismic hazards are influenced mainly by the subsurface geologic and geotechnical dynamic characteristics. To estimate reliably the seismic responses in this study, a geotechnical information system (GTIS) within GIS framework was developed by introducing new concepts, which consist of the extended area containing the study area and the additional site visit for acquiring surface geo-knowledge data. The GIS-based GTIS was built for Gyeongju area, which has records of abundant historical seismic hazards reflecting the high potential of future earthquakes. At the study area, Gyeongju, intensive site investigations and pre-existing geotechnical data collections were performed and the site visits were additionally carried out for assessing geotechnical characteristics and shear wave velocity ($V_S$) representing dynamic property. Within the GTIS for Gyeongju area, the spatially distributed geotechnical layers and $V_S$ in the entire study area were reliably predicted from the site investigation data using the geostatistical kriging method. Based on the spatial geotechnical layers and $V_S$ predicted within the GTIS, a seismic zoning map on site period ($T_G$) from which the site-specific seismic responses according to the site effects can be estimated was created across the study area of Gyeongju. The spatial $T_G$ map at Gyeongju indicated seismic vulnerability of two- to five-storied buildings. In this study, the seismic zonation based on $T_G$ within the GIS-based GTIS was presented as regional efficient strategy for seismic hazard prediction and mitigation.

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A Study on the Development of a Dam Operation Table Using the Rainfall Matrix (강우 매트릭스를 활용한 댐 운영 조견표 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Changsam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 2020
  • Recently, flood damage has been increasing in Korea due to frequent local torrential rains caused by abnormal weather conditions. According to the calculation of the recurrence period of torrential rain that occurred in North Chungcheong Province on July 16, 2017, it was estimated that the rainfall frequency in the upper are of Goessan Dam was around 1,524 years, and the highest level of Goesan Dam rose to EL.137.60 meters, leaving only 5 cm of margin until the height of the dam floor (EL.137.65 meters). The Goesan Dam, which operated for 62 years since 1957, needs to be prepared to cope with the increase of floodgate volume in the basin, the development of a single purpose dam for power generation only, and there are no measurement facilities for flood control, so efficient operation methods are needed to secure the safety of residents in upper and lower regions. In this study, a method of dam operation was proposed by constructing a rain matrix for quick decision making in flood prediction, calculating the highest level of dam for each condition in advance, and preparing a survey table, and quickly finding the level corresponding to the conditions in case of a situation.

Research on Managing Incineration Facility according to Prediction of Change in Amount of Waste (폐기물 발생량 변화 예측에 따른 소각시설 운영에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Sang An
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2012
  • In the state that re-evaluation of calculating optimum amount of incineration in the future is needed, as considering the amount of waste, increase of heat value and change in floating population in each area in city B, the purpose of this research was to predict optimum available capacity in incineration plant and to study alternatives for the amount of disposal in each incineration plant based on the available capacity that was predicted. As a result of predicting the change in population based on progress of population in city B in the past, it is expected that an overall population is decreasing, but in some areas, population is concentrated due to increased apartment complexes, showing similar figures as the present. Moreover, when predicting the amount of waste through forecasting population, it is considered that the amount of waste by decreased population is also decreasing. However, the amount of combustible component among a total amount of waste is expected to increase, so it is predicted that the amount of incineration and combustible component will be reasonable except D incineration plant, Therefore, D incinerating plant showed 72.7% of rate of utilization of incineration facility compared to 59.1% of national rate. However, if shortfall of waste in the future can be used wisely in other areas, the use of renewable energy using burner useless heat can be maximized.

Coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Behavior of Rock Mass Surrounding Cavern Thermal Energy Storage (암반공동 열에너지저장소 주변 암반의 열-수리-역학적 연계거동 분석)

  • Park, Jung-Wook;Rutqvist, Jonny;Ryu, Dongwoo;Synn, Joong-Ho;Park, Eui-Seob
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2015
  • The thermal-hydrological-mechanical (T-H-M) behavior of rock mass surrounding a high-temperature cavern thermal energy storage (CTES) operated for a period of 30 years has been investigated by TOUGH2-FLAC3D simulator. As a fundamental study for the development of prediction and control technologies for the environmental change and rock mass behavior associated with CTES, the key concerns were focused on the hydrological-thermal multiphase flow and the consequential mechanical behavior of the surrounding rock mass, where the insulator performance was not taken into account. In the present study, we considered a large-scale cylindrical cavern at shallow depth storing thermal energy of $350^{\circ}C$. The numerical results showed that the dominant heat transfer mechanism was the conduction in rock mass, and the mechanical behavior of rock mass was influenced by thermal factor (heat) more than hydrological factor (pressure). The effective stress redistribution, displacement and surface uplift caused by heating of rock and boiling of ground-water were discussed, and the potential of shear failure was quantitatively examined. Thermal expansion of rock mass led to the ground-surface uplift on the order of a few centimeters and the development of tensile stress above the storage cavern, increasing the potential of shear failure.

A Study on Mine Ventilation Network (광산 통기 네트워크 연구)

  • Kim, Soo Hong;Kim, Yun Kwang;Kim, Sun Myung;Jang, Yun Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 2017
  • This study focuses on the improvement of the working environment in domestic collieries where temperature is increasing due to heat of the earth that is caused by the long-term mining. In order to improve the working environment of the mine, a ventilation evaluation was carried out for Hwasoon Mining Industry. In order to increase the ventilation efficiency of the mine, numerical analysis of the effect on temperature was carried out by using climsim, a temperature prediction program. The analysis shows that A coal mine needs $6,152m^3/min$ for in-flow ventilation rate but the total input air flowrate is $4,710m^3/min$, $1,442m^3/min$ of in-flow ventilation rate shortage. The 93 m hypothetical ventilation shaft from -395 ML to -488 ML could result about $3^{\circ}C$ temperature drop in the coal mine of -488 ML far. As a result of predicting the $CO_2$ concentration at -523 ML development using artificial neural network, the emission of $CO_2$ increased as the amount of coal and coal bed thickness increased. The factors that have the greatest effect on the amount of $CO_2$ emissions were coal layer thickness and coal mining. And, as the air quantity increases, it has a great effect on the decrease of carbon dioxide concentration.

A Study on Wind Distribution of Mountain Area by Spot Measurements and Simulations (실측 및 해석을 통한 단순 산악지형의 바람장 분포 연구)

  • Kimg, Eung-Sik;Lee, Byung-Doo;Cho, Min-Tae;Kim, Jang-Whan
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2014
  • Forest fire has a number of variables and since the effects of wind fields are bigger than any other variables, it is essential to know wind direction and velocity for the forest fire extinguishing techniques and the prediction of fire spread. With regards to the local area that has a high chance of forest fire, the data from meteorological observatory in the area is used for the estimation of wind velocity. It is relatively easy to obtain automatic weather station (AWS) data which are available for the whole nation. There is a chance that the data from the weather station may be different with the actual data at the mountain areas. In this study simply shaped hills (Sae-byeol hill of Jeju Island and port Ma-geum in An-myeon Island in the sea side) were selected as the experimental locations to minimize the distortion of the wind field by the adjacent geographic features. Spot measurements and analysis of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for the given geographic features were conducted to examine and compare their consistency. As a conclusion It is possible to predict wind patterns in these simple locations.

An Ergonomic Analysis for Heavy Manual Material Handling Jobs by Fire Fighters (소방대원의 중량물작업에 대한 인간공학적 분석)

  • Im, Su-Jung;Park, Jong-Tae;Choi, Seo-Yeon;Park, Dong-Hyun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2013
  • Modern fire fighting jobs have been expanded to include areas of rescue, emergency medical service as well as conventional fire suppression, so that load for fire fighting jobs has been increased. Specifically, musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) such as low back injury have been considered as one of major industrial hazards in heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs. This study tried to evaluate risk levels and to prepare background for reducing risk levels associated with heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs. This study applied two major tools in evaluating heavy manual material handling jobs which were NLE (NIOSH Lifting Equation) and 3DSSPP (3D Static Strength Prediction Program). A risk index in terms of heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs was identified. This index consisted of seven risk levels ranged from nine points (the first level) to three points (the seventh level). There was no job associated with the first level (the highest risk level) of index. There was only one job (life saving job) belonging to the second level (the second highest risk level) of index. The third level had jobs such as usage of destruction equipment and lifting patient. A total of basic eighteen jobs was categorized into six different levels (2nd-7th levels) of index. The outcome of the study could provide a good basis for conducting job intervention, preparing good equipment and developing good education program in order to prevent and reduce MSDs including low back injury of fire fighting jobs.

Prediction of Distribution for Five Organic Contaminants in Biopiles by Level I Fugacity Model (Level I Fugacity Model을 이용한 Biopile 내 유기화합물 5종의 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Kye-Hoon;Kim, Ho-Jin;Pollard, Simon J.T.
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.228-234
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to predict environmental distribution of anthracene, benzene, benzo[a]pyrene, 1-methylphenanthrene and phenanthrene in a four phase biopile system - air, water, soil and non aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) phase using level I fugacity model. Soil samples used for this study were collected from three sites in the United Kingdom which were historically contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The level I fugacities (f) for the five contaminants were markedly different, however, the fugacities of each contaminant in three soil samples did not show significant difference. NAPL and soil were the dominant phases for all five contaminants. Results of this study indicated that difference in percentage of organic carbon strongly influenced the partitioning behavior of the cntaminants. The presence of benzene calls for an urgent need for risk-based management of air and water phase. Whereas insignificant amount of chemicals leached in the water phase for other organic contaminants showing greatly reduced potential of groundwater contamination. Furthermore, this study helped us to confirm the association of risk critical contaminants with the residual saturation in treated soils. They also can be used to emphasize the importance of accounting for the partitioning behavior of both NAPL and soil phases in the process of the risk assessment of the sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons.

Application of SWAT-CUP for Streamflow Auto-calibration at Soyang-gang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 유출 자동보정을 위한 SWAT-CUP의 적용 및 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Kang, Hyunwoo;Choi, Jae Wan;Kong, Dong Soo;Gum, Donghyuk;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.347-358
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    • 2012
  • The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) should be calibrated and validated with observed data to secure accuracy of model prediction. Recently, the SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program for SWAT) software, which can calibrate SWAT using various algorithms, were developed to help SWAT users calibrate model efficiently. In this study, three algorithms (GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, PARASOL: Parameter solution, SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2) in the SWAT-CUP were applied for the Soyang-gang dam watershed to evaluate these algorithms. Simulated total streamflow and 0~75% percentile streamflow were compared with observed data, respectively. The NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) and $R^2$ (Coefficient of Determination) values were the same from three algorithms but the P-factor for confidence of calibration ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 . the PARASOL shows the lowest p-factor (0.27), SUFI-2 gives the greatest P-factor (0.81) among these three algorithms. Based on calibration results, the SUFI-2 was found to be suitable for calibration in Soyang-gang dam watershed. Although the NSE and $R^2$ values were satisfactory for total streamflow estimation, the SWAT simulated values for low flow regime were not satisfactory (negative NSE values) in this study. This is because of limitations in semi-distributed SWAT modeling structure, which cannot simulated effects of spatial locations of HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) within subwatersheds in SWAT. To solve this problem, a module capable of simulating groundwater/baseflow should be developed and added to the SWAT system. With this enhancement in SWAT/SWAT-CUP, the SWAT estimated streamflow values could be used in determining standard flow rate in TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Load) application at a watershed.

Application of SWAT for the Estimation of Soil Loss in the Daecheong Dam Basin (대청댐 유역 토양 침식량 산정을 위한 SWAT 모델의 적용)

  • Ye, Lyeong;Yoon, Sung-Wan;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2008
  • The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developed by the USDA-Agricultural Research Service for the prediction of land management impact on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in a large-scale basin was applied to Daecheong Reservoir basin to estimate the amount of soil losses from different land uses. The research outcomes provide important indications for reservoir managers and policy makers to search alternative watershed management practices for the mitigation of reservoir turbidity flow problems. After calibrations of key model parameters, SWAT showed fairly good performance by adequately simulating observed annual runoff components and replicating the monthly flow regimes in the basin. The specific soil losses from agricultural farm field, forest, urban area, and paddy field were 33.1, $2.3{\sim}5.4$ depending on the tree types, 1.0, and 0.1 tons/ha/yr, respectively in 2004. It was noticed that about 55.3% of the total annual soil loss is caused by agricultural activities although agricultural land occupies only 10% in the basin. Although the soil erosion assessment approach adopted in this study has some extent of uncertainties due to the lack of detailed information on crop types and management activities, the results at least imply that soil erosion control practices for the vulnerable agricultural farm lands can be one of the most effective alternatives to reduce the impact of turbidity flow in the river basin system.