• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제53권11호
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• pp.1025-1037
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• 2020

본 연구는 호우경보에 사용되는 Limited area ENsemble prediction System (LENS) 강우예측자료에 대한 공간적 특성 및 적용성을 평가하였다. LENS는 13개의 강우앙상블 멤버를 가지고 있어 호우경보를 발령하는데 있어 확률적인 방법을 활용할 수 있다. 그러나 LENS의 자료의 접근성은 매우 낮아 강우예측자료의 적용성에 대한 연구가 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 행정구역별로 활용되는 호우경보 시스템에 따라 하나의 지점값과 면적평균값을 관측값과 비교하여 평가지수를 산정하였다. 또한, LENS의 발령시간에 따르는 각 앙상블 멤버들의 정확성을 평가하였다. LENS는 멤버별로 과대 혹은 과소 예측의 불확실성을 보여줬다. 면적단위의 예측이 지점단위의 예측보다 더 높은 예측성을 보여주었다. 또한, 다가오는 72시간의 강우를 예측하는 LENS 자료는 수재해의 영향성이 있을 수 있는 강우 사상에 대하여 예측성능이 좋은 것으로 평가되었다. 추후 국지강우앙상블시스템(LENS) 자료는 행정구역 또는 유역면적 단위의 홍수 대비에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 대기
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.55-67
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• 2024

This paper aims to provide a detailed introduction to the concept of the Ratio of Predictable Component (RPC) and the Signal-to-Noise Paradox. Then, we derive insights from them by exploring the paradoxical features by conducting a seasonal and regional analysis through ensemble expansion in KMA's climate prediction system (GloSea). We also provide an explanation of the ensemble generation method, with a specific focus on stochastic physics. Through this study, we can provide the predictability limits of our forecasting system, and find way to enhance it. On a global scale, RPC reaches a value of 1 when the ensemble is expanded to a maximum of 56 members, underlining the significance of ensemble expansion in the climate prediction system. The feature indicating RPC paradoxically exceeding 1 becomes particularly evident in the winter North Atlantic and the summer North Pacific. In the Siberian Continent, predictability is notably low, persisting even as the ensemble size increases. This region, characterized by a low RPC, is considered challenging for making reliable predictions, highlighting the need for further improvement in the model and initialization processes related to land processes. In contrast, the tropical ocean demonstrates robust predictability while maintaining an RPC of 1. Through this study, we have brought to attention the limitations of potential predictability within the climate prediction system, emphasizing the necessity of leveraging predictable signals with high RPC values. We also underscore the importance of continuous efforts aimed at improving models and initializations to overcome these limitations.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제19D권2호
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• pp.147-150
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• 2012

클래스들 간의 거리를 최대화시키는 사영 방향을 구하는 감독차원감소 방법인 선형판별분석법(LDA)은 클래스 정보를 가진 데이터의 수가 매우 적을 때 성능이 급격히 저하되는 경향이 있다. 이러한 경우 상대적으로 저렴한 비용으로 얻을 수 있는 클래스 라벨 정보가 없는 데이터를 활용할 수 있는 반감독 차원 감소법이 사용될 수 있다. 그러나 통계적 차원 감소법에서 흔히 사용되는 행렬연산은 많은 양의 데이터를 사용하는데 메모리와 처리시간에서 한계가 있고, 적은 수의 라벨드 데이터(labeled data)에 비해 너무나 많은 언라벨드 데이터(unlabeled data)의 사용은 처리 시간의 증가에 비해 오히려 성능감소를 가져올 수 있다. 이러한 문제들을 극복하기 위해 앙상블 접근법을 이용한 반감독 차원 감소 방법을 제안한다. 문서분류 문제에서의 실험결과를 통해 제안한 방법의 성능을 입증한다.

• 대기
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.33-37
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• 2013

In meteorology, exploitation of Kalman filter as a data assimilation system is virtually impossible due to simultaneous requirements of adjoint model and large computer resource. The other substitute of utilizing ensemble Kalman filter is only affordable by compensating an enormous usage of computing resource. Furthermore, the latter employs ensemble integration sets for evolving the background error covariance matrix by compensating the dynamical feature of the temporal evolution of weather conditions. We propose a new implementation method that works without the adjoint model by utilizing the explicit expression of the background error covariance matrix in backward evolution. It will also break a barrier in the evolution of the covariance matrix. The method may be applied with a slight modification to the real time assimilation or the retrospective analysis.

• 대한의용생체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한의용생체공학회 1994년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.124-127
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• 1994

A technique based on bispectrun averaging is described for generally recovering the signal waveform from a set of noisy signals with variable signal delay. The technique does not require explicit tune alignment of signals and any initial estimate of signal. The new method is suggested and is compared with other methods. This method are numerically investigated using computer generated-data and a physiological signal and noise Some experimental results for the evoked potential studios that demonstrate the technique are given. The results show the effectiveness of the technique: various potential applications of the technique might be expected.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.423-427
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• 1998

In this paper the electron mobility in $Ga{1-X}In_xAs$alloy semiconductors is simulated by using the ensemble Monte Carlo method. The simulations for Ga\ulcornerIn\ulcornerAs with In mole fraction, doping concentration and temperature as parameters are performed. The electron mobility for alloys which perfectly orderd alloys without the alloy scattering mechanism are assumed, the results show that mobility in Ga\ulcornerIn\ulcornerAs is improved by 11%, 12% and 7% for 0.25, 0.53 and 0.75. In mole fractions, respectively, We reported the theoretical results of electron mobility in $Ga{1-X}In_xAs$alloys, so those will contribute to the research and development into materials for high-speed semiconductor devices.

• 한국의학물리학회지:의학물리
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.3-11
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• 1995

A technique based on bispectrum averaging is described for generally recovering the signal waveform from a set of noisy signals with variable signal delay. The technique does not require explicit time alignment of signals and initial estimate of sigals and initial etimate of signal. The new method is suggested and is compared with other methods. This method are numerically investigated using computer generated-data and a phtsiological signal and noise. Some expermeental results for the evoked potential studies that demonstrate the technique are given. The results show the effectiveness of the technique : various potential applictions of the techique might be expected.

• E2M - 전기 전자와 첨단 소재
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.268-273
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• 1997

In this paper the transient electron transport in GaAs bulk is simulated by using ensemble Monte Carlo method. To analyze the transient electron transport the 10000 electrons in the .GAMMA. valley are simulated simultaneously for 10 picoseconds. The electric field-velocity relation is obtained. The high impurity density reduces the negative differential resistance effect. The result of transient average velocity shows the electron velocity in the transient state is faster than that in the steady state. This transient velocity overshoot is caused by the intervalley scattering mechanism. And we confirmed the fact that the energy relaxation time is longer than the momentum relaxation time.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.449-466
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• 2006

We propose to use variable selection methods based on penalized regression for pruning decision tree ensembles. Pruning methods based on LASSO and SCAD are compared with the cluster pruning method. Comparative studies are performed on some artificial datasets and real datasets. According to the results of comparative studies, the proposed methods based on penalized regression reduce the size of boosting ensembles without decreasing accuracy significantly and have better performance than the cluster pruning method. In terms of classification noise, the proposed pruning methods can mitigate the weakness of AdaBoost to some degree.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2022

As the stock market is affected by various circumstances including economic and political variables, predicting the stock market is considered a still open problem. When combined with corporate financial statement data analysis, which is used as fundamental analysis, and technical analysis with a short data generation cycle, there is a problem that the time domain does not match. Our proposed method, LSTE the operating profit and market outlook of a petrochemical company and estimates the sales and operating profit of the company, it was possible to solve the above-mentioned problems and improve the accuracy of stock price prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the 8.58% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy.