• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.79-88
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• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.7
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• pp.755-765
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• 2013

This study developed a real-time dam's hydrologic variables prediction model (DHVPM) and evaluated its performance for simulating historical dam inflow and outflow in the Chungju dam basin. The DHVPM consists of the Sejong University River Forecast (SURF) model for hydrologic modeling and an autoreservoir operation method (Auto ROM) for dam operation. SURF model is continuous rainfall-runoff model with data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. The four extreme events including the maximum inflow of each year for 2006~2009 were selected to examine the performance of DHVPM. The statistical criteria, the relative error in peak flow, root mean square error, and model efficiency, demonstrated that DHVPM with data assimilation can simulate more close to observed inflow than those with no data assimilation at both 1-hour lead time, except the relative error in peak flow in 2007. Especially, DHVPM with data assimilation until 10-hour lead time reduced the biases of inflow forecast attributed to observed precipitation error. In conclusion, DHVPM with data assimilation can be useful to improve the accuracy of inflow forecast in the basin where real-time observed inflow are available.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.48-56
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• 2002

The flow characteristics around KRISO 3600TEU container ship model have been experimentally investigated in a circulating water channel. The instantaneous velocity vectors were measured using 2-frame PIV measurement system. The mean velocity fields and turbulent statistics including turbulent kinetic energy and vorticity were obtained by ensemble-averaging 400 instantaneous velocity fields. The free stream velocity was fixed at 0.6m/s and the corresponding Reynolds number was $9{\times}10^5$. The test sections were divided into two regions, three transverse sections of the wake region(Station -0.5767, -1, -3) and five longitudinal sections of the wake((Z/(B/2)=0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6). In the wake region, large-scale longitudinal vortices of nearly same strength are symmetric with respect to the wake centerline and a relatively weak secondary vortex is formed near the waterline. With going downstream, the strength of longitudinal vortex is decreased and the wake region expands.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.671-680
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• 2019

Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.62 no.3
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• pp.215-220
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• 2023

A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.769-779
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• 2017

As the occurrence of drought is recently on the rise, the reliable drought forecasting is required for developing the drought mitigation and proactive management of water resources. This study developed a probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method using the Bayesian Networks and drought propagation relationship to estimate future drought with the forecast uncertainty, named as the Propagated Bayesian Networks Drought Forecasting (PBNDF) model. The proposed PBNDF model was composed with 4 nodes of past, current, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasted information and the drought propagation relationship. Using Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the PBNDF model was applied to forecast the hydrological drought condition at 10 gauging stations in Nakdong River basin. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to measure the forecast skill of the forecast mean values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and skill score (SS) were employed to compare the forecast performance with previously developed forecast models (persistence forecast, Bayesian network drought forecast). We found that the forecast skill of PBNDF model showed better performance with low RMSE and high SS of 0.1~0.15. The overall results mean the PBNDF model had good potential in probabilistic drought forecasting.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-9
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• 2005

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of two kinds of underwear material on subjects exercising and resting in an ambient temperature of $20^{\circ}C$, a relative humidity of 60% and an air velocity of 0.13m $see^{-1}$. Two kinds of underwear ensemble were tested, differing in their hygroscopic properties: 100% wool (W) with higher moisture regain and 100% cotton (C) with lower moisture regain. Five young females served as subjects. The experiments comprised two repeated periods of 15 min exercise on a treadmill with a speed of 6km $h^{-1}$ followed by 10 min rest. The main results were as follows: 1) Mean skin temperature was significantly higher in W than in C throughout the whole experimental period (p<0.05). 2) The temperature and humidity of the microclimate between the skin and underwear provided by the first layer of clothing was higher in W than in C (p<0.1 and p<0.05, for temperature and humidity, respectively). 3) Heart rate was significantly higher in W than in C (p<0.05). 4) Subjects felt warmer during the second exercise session when wearing wool rather than cotton (p<0.05), and they also reported more increased wetness during the second exercise and rest periods in W than in C (p<0.05). These results suggest that underwear made of wool with higher moisture regain might not act as effectively as cotton to transfer exercise-induced heat from the body to the surrounding air when light exercise is taken in a thermally-neutral environment.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.06e
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• pp.772-776
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• 2001

The flow structures of turbulent shear layer behind oil fences with different tip configurations were investigated experimentally using flow visualization and PIV velocity field measurement. An oil fence was installed in a circulating water channel and the flow structure around the fence tip was mainly analyzed in this experiment. The four tip configurations tested in this experiment are knife edge; semi-circle edge, circular edge and rectangular edge. The 300 instantaneous velocity fields were measured using the single-frame PIV system and they were ensemble averaged to give the mean velocity field and spatial distribution of turbulent statistics. Free stream velocity was fixed at 10ms/sec and the corresponding Reynolds number based on the fence height was Re=4000. As a result, for the oil fence with rectangular edge, the streamwise velocity component was decreased. On the other hand it was increased for the oil fence with circular edge. For all four fences tested in this study, general flow pattern of the lower shear layer is analogous but the upper layer shows difference depending on the tip configurations. The oil fence with circular edge has more diffusive upper shear layer than that of the others. The shear layer of the oil fence with rectangular edge has relatively thin thickness. The oil fence with circular edge was found to be proper shape for tandem fence.

• Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.635-645
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• 2015

This study analyzed the range of motion of upper body in different configurations of firefighters' protective clothing and equipment. The purpose of this study was to understand the influence of firefighters' protective clothing and equipment over upper body motion in order to improve design of firefighters' protective clothing and equipment. 12 firefighters' upper body range of motion was analyzed while performing standing and walking trials in five different garment configurations including turnout ensemble, fire boots and the self-contained breathing apparatus. Analysis of upper body range of motion included spinal joints of L5S1, L4L3, T1C7, and C1Head. During standing trials, garment configurations caused a significant difference in range of motions at joints of L5S1, L4L3, T1C7, and C1Head. Analysis on the mean of range of motions at L5S1 and L4L3, showed that firefighters' waist bent forward significantly to a greater extent while they wore a self-contained breathing apparatus. A significantly increased range of motion was found for T1C7 and C1Head while carrying a self-contained breathing apparatus, which indicated an increase in the extension of the trunk and neck backward to stand upright and look squarely. A significant difference in range of motion was also found for L5S1 and L4L3 during walking trials.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.375-387
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• 2015

A Selected Multi-model CONsensus (SMCON) technique was developed and verified for the tropical cyclone track forecast in the western North Pacific. The SMCON forecasts were produced by averaging numerical model forecasts showing low 70% latest 6 h prediction errors among 21 models. In the homogeneous comparison for 54 tropical cyclones in 2013 and 2014, the SMCON improvement rate was higher than the other forecasts such as the Non-Selected Multi-model CONsensus (NSMCON) and other numerical models (i.e., GDAPS, GEPS, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, ECMWF_H, ECMWF_EPS, JGSM, TEPS). However, the SMCON showed lower or similar improvement rate than a few forecasts including ECMWF_EPS forecasts at 96 h in 2013 and at 72 h in 2014 and the TEPS forecast at 120 h in 2013. Mean track errors of the SMCON for two year were smaller than the NSMCON and these differences were 0.4, 1.2, 5.9, 12.9, 8.2 km at 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-h respectively. The SMCON error distributions showed smaller central tendency than the NSMCON's except 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Similarly, the density for smaller track errors of the SMCON was higher than the NSMCON's except at 72-, 96-h forecast in 2013 in the kernel density estimation analysis. In addition, the NSMCON has lager range of errors above the third quantile and larger standard deviation than the SMCON's at 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Also, the SMCON showed smaller bias than ECMWF_H for the cross track bias. Thus, we concluded that the SMCON could provide more reliable information on the tropical cyclone track forecast by reflecting the real-time performance of the numerical models.