• Title/Summary/Keyword: energy scenario

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Application of LEAP Model to Reduce GHG Emissions from Residential Sector (LEAP 모형을 이용한 가정 부문 온실가스 저감효과 분석)

  • Jo, Mi-hyun;Park, Nyun-Bae;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.211-219
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    • 2013
  • This study uses the LEAP model that is a long-term energy analysis model to analyze reduction potential on S city residential sector energy usage for greenhouse gas emission. Energy consumption of S-si in 2009 is consumed most in residential and commerce sector by 39.1%. Also, energy and greenhouse gas emission of residential sector is expected to increase due to increase of households. Therefore, greenhouse gas reduction measures are desperately required in residential sector. For this study recognizes energy consumption of S-si residential sector and has established reduction measure of S-si residential sector greenhouse gas through literature search on domestic and foreign climate change correspondence policies. Also, construction of greenhouse gas reduction potential by reduction measures through LEAP model. There were a total of 5 reduction measures scenarios is Reference Scenario, LED Lighting, Energy Alternative, Green Life Practice, and Total Reduction Measure. As a result, greenhouse gas emission of Light Emitting Diode Lightings by 2020 was $1,181.0thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.1% compared to the Reference Scenario and Greenhouse gas emission of Energy Alternative by 2020 was $1,171.6thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.8% compared to the Reference Scenario. Greenhouse gas emission of Green Life Practice by 2020 was $1,128.7thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 10.2% compared to the Reference Scenario. For Total Reduction Measures by 2020 emission was $966.9thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease 23.1% compared to Reference Scenario.

A Long Term Market Forecasting of Passenger Car using MESSAGE Modelling (MESSAGE 모델링을 이용한 승용차 부문의 그린카 도입 전망 분석)

  • Yoo, Jong-Hun;Kim, Hu-Gon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2012
  • In this study, long-term greenhouse gas reductions expected passenger sector was used for the MESSAGE. Green Car road map proposed BAU scenario, Enhanced diffusion green car scenario, and price 1, 2 scenarios was configured with four scenarios. Enhanced diffusion green car in the scenario, in 2050 compared to BAU scenario 13% of the emissions will decrease. Price 1 and Price 2 scenario is emissions reduction of 14% compared to BAU. This study consists of six chapters. Introduction of MESSAGE, creation and RES in the year and the target year set a different base line and the passenger building materials sector activities, steps for passenger sector scenario and Based on the results of running the emissions reductions were to describe.

GHG Mitigation Scenario Analysis in Building Sector using Energy System Model (에너지시스템 분석 모형을 통한 국내 건물부문 온실가스 감축시나리오 분석)

  • Yun, Seong Gwon;Jeong, Young Sun;Cho, Cheol Hung;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed directions of the energy product efficiency improvement and Carbon Tax for the domestic building sector. In order to analyze GHG reduction potential and total cost, the cost optimization model MESSAGE was used. In the case of the "efficiency improvement scenario," the cumulative potential GHG reduction amount - with respect to the "Reference scenario" - from 2010 to 2030 is forecast to be $104MtCO_2eq$, with a total projected cost of 2.706 trillion KRW. In the "carbon tax scenario," a reduction effect of $74MtCO_2eq$ in cumulative potential GHG reduction occurred, with a total projected cost of 2.776 trillion KRW. The range of per-ton GHG reduction cost for each scenario was seen to be approximately $-475{\sim}272won/tCO_2eq$, and the "efficiency improvement scenario" showed as the highest in the order of priority, in terms of the GHG reduction policy direction. Regarding policies to reduce GHG emissions in the building sector, the energy efficiency improvement is deemed to deployed first in the future.

Multi-unit Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment: Approaches and their application to a six-unit nuclear power plant site

  • Kim, Sung-yeop;Jung, Yong Hun;Han, Sang Hoon;Han, Seok-Jung;Lim, Ho-Gon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1246-1254
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    • 2018
  • The importance of performing Level 3 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) along with a general interest in assessing multi-unit risk has been sharply increasing after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident. However, relatively few studies on multi-unit Level 3 PSA have been performed to date, reflecting limited scenarios of multi-unit accidents with higher priority. The major difficulty to carry out a multi-unit Level 3 PSA lies in the exponentially increasing number of multi-unit accident combinations, as different source terms can be released from each NPP unit; indeed, building consequence models for the astronomical number of accident scenarios is simply impractical. In this study, a new approach has been developed that employs the look-up table method to cover every multi-unit accident scenario. Consequence results for each scenario can be found on the table, established with a practical amount of effort, and can be matched to the frequency of the scenario. Preliminary application to a six-unit NPP site was carried out, where it was found that the difference between full-coverage and cut-off cases could be considerably high and therefore influence the total risk. Additional studies should be performed to fine tune the details and overcome the limitations of the approach.

A Study of GHG-AP Integrated Inventories and Alternative Energy Use Scenario of Energy Consumption in the University (대학 내 에너지 소비에 따른 온실가스-대기오염 통합 인벤토리 및 대체 에너지 사용 시나리오 분석)

  • Jung, Jae-Hyung;Kwon, O-Yul
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.1643-1654
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    • 2014
  • The university is one of the main energy consumption facilities and thereby releases a large amount of greenhouse gas (GHG). Accordingly, efforts for reducing energy consumption and GHG have been established in many local as well as international universities. However, it has been limited to energy consumption and GHG, and has not included air pollution (AP). Therefore, we estimated GHG and AP integrated emissions from the energy consumed by Seoul National University of Science and Technology during the years between 2010 and 2012. In addition, the effect of alternative energy use scenario was analysed. We estimated GHG using IPCC guideline and Guidelines for Local Government Greenhouse Inventories, and AP using APEMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook 2013 and Air Pollutants Calculation Manual. The estimated annual average GHG emission was $11,420tonCO_{2eq}$, of which 27% was direct emissions from fuel combustion sectors, including stationary and mobile source, and the remaining 73% was indirect emissions from purchased electricity and purchased water supply. The estimated annual average AP emission was 7,757 kgAP, of which the total amount was from direct emissions only. The annual GHG emissions from city gas and purchased electricity usage per unit area ($m^2$) of the university buildings were estimated as $15.4kgCO_{2eq}/m^2$ and $42.4tonCO_{2eq}/m^2$ and those per person enrolled in the university were $210kgCO_{2eq}$/capita and $577kgCO_{2eq}$/capita. Alternative energy use scenarios revealed that the use of all alternative energy sources including solar energy, electric car and rain water reuse applicable to the university could reduce as much as 9.4% of the annual GHG and 34% of AP integrated emissions, saving approximately 400 million won per year, corresponding to 14% of the university energy budget.

Energy Technology Perspective of Transportation for CO2 Reduction Based on ETP 2014 (ETP 2014에 기초한 이산화탄소 저감을 위한 수송 부문 에너지 기술 전망)

  • Bae, Choongsik;Park, Hyunwook
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2014.11a
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    • pp.277-280
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    • 2014
  • Global energy demand has continued to rise due to population increase and economic development. National governments and international bodies try to seek the ways to reduce the demand growth. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) have provided the current status of energy system, technology developments and external events that have changed ETP scenario since 2006. The status and prospects for key energy technologies of transport sector are presented. Technology portfolio for the transport sector should be needed to meet very low CO2 targets. The portfolio includes improved fuel economy of current internal combustion engine vehicles, advanced technologies such as electric and fuel-cell vehicles, advanced biofuels and demand-side management.

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Foresight study on the Overseas Export of Nuclear Power Plants (시나리오 기반 미래원전산업의 환경변화 전망 및 수출전략 도출)

  • Hwang, Byung Yong;Choi, Han Lim;Lee, Yong Suk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

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Study on Cost of Energy(COE) Reduction Scenario of Korean Offshore Wind Power (해상풍력발전의 에너지단가(COE)절감 시나리오 연구)

  • Sung, Jin Ki;Lee, Jong Hoon;Kang, Kung Suk;Lee, Tae Jin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.11
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    • pp.1520-1527
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to derive COE reduction targets of offshore wind power in Korea. In addition, innovation factors for achieving the COE reduction targets were derived. Also the COE reduction targets of offshore wind power was to improve that national policy, technology, industry and improving regulations would like to help. The results of this study has been created based on the various assumptions, scenarios and experts' discussions. Currently, offshore wind power generation price is 229.72won/kWh in 2012. According to the study, COE of offshore wind power has been proposed 88.8won/kWh at third scenario by 2030. This result has shown competitiveness with fossil fuel power generation.