• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.34-42
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• 2012

The forecasted energy shortage tends to encourage to develop the next generation energy to countermove the energy problems and the climatic change all over the world. Korean government is pushing ahead with the policy for 'Low Carbon Green Growth' to deal with climate changes and to overcome energy problems. And many studies for low carbon green city or zero carbon city have been progressed. In this study, energy plants and energy scenarios are selected by energy supply suited features of city at city plan. The method to evaluate energy scenario can be proposed to apply various energy plants for energy demand on city planning step and evaluation method can be systematized to be used by users. Also the calculated values are changed into index for comparison according to each energy scenario.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.60 no.7
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• pp.1339-1346
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• 2011

This paper is developed to demand management scenario of energy consumption efficiency improvement, electricity generation efficiency improvement, network efficiency improvement, change of distribution ratio, movement of energy source, change of heating system, put of CHP to quantitatively assess to impact on energy use of demand management at the national level. This scenario can be applied Energy System Management model was developed based on Energy Balance Flow. In addition, effect analysis through built demand management scenario was quantitatively evaluated integrated demand management effectiveness of energy cost saving, CO2 emission reduction and energy savings of national level by calculating to primary energy source usage change in terms of integration demand management effect more often than not a single energy source separated electricity, heat and gas.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.127-147
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• 2023

This study is trying to analyze the economic effect of replacing thermal power generation, one of the government's carbon-neutral policies, with new and renewable energy. For this analysis, scenario A is set to replace 100% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario B is set to replace 60% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy. In addition, costs are incurred when replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario 1 is the same cost as the current cost, and scenario 2 is120% higher than the current cost. Therefore, when converting thermal power generation to new and renewable energy, the scenarios are largely organized into four cases. In the case of replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, the production inducement coefficient of thermal power generation decreased from the current level regardless of the scenario. However, the value-added inducement coefficient and the greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are lower than the current level when thermal power is converted to renewable energy by 100%, while the value-added inducement coefficient and greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are higher than the current level. In addition, the greenhouse gas emission induction coefficient of most industries was found to decrease, while the production induction coefficient and the value-added induction coefficient increased. Scenario A seems appropriate because the purpose of the government's policy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting thermal power into new and renewable energy. However, as a result of this, the production inducement coefficient and value-added inducement coefficient of some industries decrease, so the government's support policy is needed to solve this problem

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.355-364
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• 2016

Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.677-687
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• 2021

The tendency to renewables is one of the consequences of changing attitudes towards energy issues. As a result, solar energy, which is the leader among renewable energies based on availability and potential, plays a crucial role in full filing global needs. Significant problems with the solar thermal power plants (STPP) are the operation time, which is limited by daylight and is approximately half of the power plants with fossil fuels, and the capital cost. Exergy analysis survey of STPP hybrid with PCM storage carried out using Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program with genetic algorithm (GA) for three different scenarios, based on eight decision variables, which led us to decrease final product cost (electricity) in optimized scenario up to 30% compare to base case scenario from 28.99 $/kWh to 20.27 $/kWh for the case study. Also, in the optimal third scenario of this plant, the inner carbon dioxide gas cycle produces 1200 kW power with a thermal efficiency of 59% and also 1000 m3/h water with an exergy efficiency of 23.4% and 79.70 kg/h with an overall exergy efficiency of 34% is produced in the tetrageneration plant.

• Journal of Game and Entertainment
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 2006

It is handled here in this paper, the orality and literacy of scenario, as a basic study for the expansional aspects of scenario at first. And next, it is grasped the specialness and potential energy of scenario checking various matter of Gutenberg Galaxy provided as a literal civilization. Further, basing on the former, various peculiarities of scenario have been linked to the digital storytelling of the internet basic and image writing of visual culture, and the various supporting schemes for new scenario format and creative circumstances in order to build the importance and the ranking of scenario have been presented in the era of the digital image contents. After all, the intention of this study particularly is to lay great emphasis on the supporting schemes and Scenario Galaxy such as a specialized graduate school and national story & scenario agency from a national point of view.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2008

This study provides an impact assesment of climate change on energy consumption, based on active-deal scenario. This approach assumes that the amount of electric energy consumption depends on human spontaneous acts against local (REC) has ben developed by using monthly mean temperature and monthly amount of electric energy consumption in the 6 major cities over the 19-205 period. The statistical model is utilized to estimate the past and future REEC, and to assess the economic benefits and damage in energy consumption sector. For an estimation of the future REEC, climate change scenario, which is generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research, is utilized in this study. According to the model, it is estimated that over the standard period (1999~2005), there might be economic benefits of about 31 bilion Won/year in Seoul due to increasing temperature than in the 1980s. The REC is also predicted to be gradually reduced across the Korean peninsula since the 2020s. These results suggest that Korea will gain economic benefits in the REC sector during the 21st century as temperature increases under global warming scenarios.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.52-60
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• 2024

This study conducted an economic analysis of renewable heat energy by estimating the levelized cost of heat production (LCOH) of ST and GSHP and comparing it with the cost of alternative fuels. The LCOH of ST ranged from 396.8 KRW/kWh to 578.7 KRW/kWh (small-scale), 270.3 KRW/kWh to 393.3 KRW/kWh (large-scale), and 156.3 KRW/kWh to 220.7 KRW/kWh for GSHP. The economic feasibility of ST and GSHP was analyzed by comparing the calculated LCOH and the fuel costs such as gas and kerosene prices. Moreover, scenario analyses were conducted for installation subsidies under the current system to examine the changes in the economics of renewable thermal energy.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.230-238
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• 2009

We study about small gas engine and fuel cell CHP (Combined Heat and Power) as the technologies for energy conservation and $CO_2$ emissions reduction. Korea government plans to use them in near future. This study quantitatively analyzed energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions reduction potential of small CHP instead of existing electric power plant (coal steam, combined cycle and oil steam) using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) as energy-economic model. Three future scenarios are discussed. In every scenario similar condition for each CHP is used. Alternative scenario I: about 6.34% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 due to increase in amount of gas engine CHP and fuel cell CHP while coal use in thermoelectric power plant is almost stagnant. In alternative scenario II: a small 0.8% increase in $CO_2$ emission is observed in 2019 keeping conditions similar to alternative scenario I but using natural gas in combined cycle power plant instead of coal. During alternative scenario II overall $CO_2$ emission reduction is observed in 2019 due to added heat production from CHP. Alternative scenario III: about 0.8% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 using similar CHP as AS I and AS II. Here coal and oil are used in thermoelectric power plant but the quantity of oil and coal is almost constant for next decade.