• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.59-66
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• 2016

The 2011 debris flow in Mt. Umyeonsan in Seoul, South Korea caused significant damages to the surrounding urban area, unlike other similar incidents reported to have occurred in the past in the country's mountainous regions. Accordingly, landslides and debris flows cause damage in various surroundings, regardless of mountainous area and urban area, at a great speed and with enormous impact. Hence, many researchers attempted to forecast the extent of impact of debris flows to help minimize the damage. The most fundamental part in forecasting the impact extent of debris flow is to understand the debris flow behavior and sedimentation mechanism in complex three-dimensional topography. To understand sedimentation mechanism, in particular, it is necessary to calculate the amount of energy and erosion according to debris flow behavior. The previously developed debris flow models, however, are limited in their ability to calculate the erosion amount of debris flow. This study calculated the extent of damage caused by a massive debris flow that occurred in 2011 in Seoul's urban area adjacent to Mt. Umyeonsan by using DEM, created from aerial photography and airborne LiDAR data, for both before and after the damage; and developed and compared a debris flow behavioral analysis model that can assess the amount of erosion based on energy theory. In addition, simulations using the existing debris flow model (RWM, Debris 2D) and a comprehensive comparison of debris flow-stricken areas were performed in the same study area.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.13-22
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• 2016

This paper presents development of an appropriate procedure and flow chart to analyze shale gas production data obtained from a multi-fractured horizontal well according to flow characteristics in order to calculate an estimated ultimate recovery. Also, the technical considerations were proposed when a rate transient analysis was performed with field production data occurred to only $1^{st}$ transient flow. If production data show the $1^{st}$ transient flow from log-log and square root time plot analysis, production forecasting must be performed by applying different method as before and after of the end of $1^{st}$ linear flow. It is estimated by an area of stimulated reservoir volume which can be calculated from analysis results of micro-seismic data. If there are no bottomhole pressure data or micro-seismic data, an empirical decline curve method can be used to forecast production performance. If production period is relatively short, an accuracy of production data analysis could be improved by analyzing except the early production data, if it is necessary, after evaluating appropriation with near well data. Also, because over- or under-estimation for stimulated reservoir volume could take place according to analysis method or analyzer's own mind, it is necessary to recalculate it with fracture modeling, reservoir simulation and rate transient analysis, if it is necessary, after adequacy evaluation for fracture stage, injection volume of fracture fluid and productivity of producers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.126-131
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• 2019

The estimation of available solar energy at particular locations is critical to find and assess suitable locations of PV sites. The amount of PV power generation is however affected by various geographical factors (e.g., weather), which may make it difficult to identify the complex relationship between affecting factors and power outputs and to apply findings from one study to another in different locations. This study thus undertakes a regression analysis using data collected from 172 PV plants spatially distributed in Korea to identify critical weather conditions and estimate the potential power generation of PV systems. Such data also include solar radiation, precipitation, fine dust, humidity, temperature, cloud amount, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The estimated PV power generation is then compared to the actual PV power generation to evaluate prediction performance. As a result, the proposed model achieves a MAPE of 11.696(%) and an R-squred of 0.979. It is also found that the variables, excluding humidity, are all statistically significant in predicting the efficiency of PV power generation. According, this study may facilitate the understanding of what weather conditions can be considered and the estimation of PV power generation for evaluating and determining suitable locations of PV facilities.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.7-19
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• 2019

In this study, a model was developed for estimating deliverability considering the pressure dependent permeability and predicting production profile with Material Balance Equation(MBE) for Coalbed Methane(CBM) fields. The estimated deliverability was compared with the conventional deliverability based on CBM well testing data with coefficient of determination($R^2$). As a result, the former was 0.76 and the latter was 0.69. It was confirmed that the deliverability which consider the pressure dependent permeability is more adoptable when representing the productivity of CBM fields. Through this process, in order to calculate pressure dependent permeability when well testing data exist, a method to infer reservoir pressure within the radius of investigation was proposed. The production profile of 31 gas wells was predicted for 15 years, using the estimated deliverability and the MBE. After that, the results was compared with simulation results of the literature. The simulation results did not account the pressure dependent permeability and the developed model results considered that. As the applied field permeability rised 1.17 times, field production rate was increased approximately 15% than the literature results. According to other researches, the permeability of CBM fields can be rise 6 ~ 25 times. For these cases, the production profiles may have significant difference with conventional gas fields.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.187-192
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• 2019

Hybrid power storage system with emergency power function for demand management and power outage minimizes the investment cost in the building of buildings and factories requiring emergency power generation facilities, We propose a new business model by developing technology that can secure economical efficiency by reducing power cost at all times. Normally, system power is supplied to load through STS (Static Transfer Switch), and PCS is connected to system in parallel to perform demand management. In order to efficiently operate the electric power through demand forecasting, the EMS issues a charge / discharge command to the ESS as a PMS (Power Management System), and the PMS transmits the command to the PCS controller to operate the system. During the power outage, the STS is rapidly disengaged from the system, and the PCS becomes an independent power supply and can supply constant voltage / constant frequency power to the load side. Therefore, it is possible to secure reliability through verification of actual system linkage and independent operation performance of hybrid ESS, By enabling low-carbon green growth technology to operate in conjunction with an efficient grid, it is possible to improve irregular power quality and contribute to peak load by generating renewable energy through ESS linkage. In addition, the ESS is replacing the frequency follow-up reserve, which is currently under the charge of coal-fired power generation, and thus it is anticipated that the operation cost of the LNG generator with high fuel cost can be reduced.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.55-66
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• 2020

Near-inertial waves (NIW) which are primarily generated by wind can contribute to vertical mixing in the ocean. The energetic NIW can be generated by typhoon due to its strong wind and preferable wind direction changes especially on the right-hand side of the typhoon. Here we investigate the generation and distribution of NIW using the output of a real-time ocean forecasting system. Five-year model outputs during 2013-2017 are analyzed with a focus on cases of energetic NIW generation by the passage of three typhoons (Halong, Goni, and Chaba) over the East Sea. Calculations of wind energy input (${\bar{W}}_I$), and horizontal kinetic energy in the mixed layer (${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$) reveal that the spatial distribution of ${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$, which is strengthened at the right-hand side of typhoon tracks, is closely related with ${\bar{W}}_I$. Horizontal kinetic energy in the deep layer (${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$) shows patch-shaped distribution mainly located at the southern side of the East Sea. Spatial distribution of ${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$ shows a close relationship with negative relative vorticity regions caused by warm eddies in the upper layer. Monthly-mean ${\bar{HKE}}_{MLD}$ and ${\bar{HKE}}_{DEEP}$ during a typhoon passing over the East Sea shows about 2.5-5.7 times and 1.2-1.6 times larger values than those during summer with no typhoons, respectively. In addition, their magnitudes are respectively about 0.4-1.0 and 0.8-1.0 times from those during winter, suggesting that the typhoon-induced NIW can provide a significant energy to enhance vertical mixing at both the mixed and deep layers during summer.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.312-326
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• 2020

Generation of weather forecasts at 100 m resolution through a statistical downscaling process was implemented by Korea Meteorological Administration Post- Processing (KMAPP) system. The KMAPP data started to be used in various industries such as hydrologic, agricultural, and renewable energy, sports, etc. Cheorwon area and Jeonbuk area have horizontal planes in a relatively wide range in Korea, where there are many complex mountainous areas. Cheorwon, which has a large number of in-situ and remotely sensed phenological data over large-scale rice paddy cultivation areas, is considered as an appropriate area for verifying KMAPP prediction performance in agricultural areas. In this study, the performance of predicting KMAPP temperature changes according to ecological changes in agricultural areas in Cheorwon was compared and verified using KMA and National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM) observations. Also, during the heat wave in Jeonbuk Province, solar radiation forecast was verified using Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data to review the usefulness of KMAPP forecast data as input data for application models such as livestock heat stress models. Although there is a limit to the need for more cases to be collected and selected, the improvement in post-harvest temperature forecasting performance in agricultural areas over ordinary residential areas has led to indirect guesses of the biophysical and phenological effects on forecasting accuracy. In the case of solar radiation prediction, it is expected that KMAPP data will be used in the application model as detailed regional forecast data, as it tends to be consistent with observed values, although errors are inevitable due to human activity in agricultural land and data unit conversion.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.49-62
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• 2023

Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.3740-3747
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• 2009

To protect the citizens' health of Gyeongju and to secure basic data for the assessment of health and environmental risk, distribution characteristics of meteorological elements were investigated and numerical simulation of wind field using RAMS model was carried out. In addition, measurement and analysis of air pollutants, forecasting the behavior air pollutants using ISC-AEROMOD view, and health and environmental risk-influenced zones were defined through managing air polluting materials to prevent health damage and property damage. According to the survey results of air pollution in Gyeongju and surroundings, average annual concentration of air pollutants in Gyeongju was slightly lower than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas, but concentration of particulate matters and nitrogen dioxide at Gyeongju Station Square and Yonggang Crossing were sometimes higher than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas. Results of the modeling of moving and diffusion of air pollutants that affect citizens' health showed that parts of the 1st through 4th industrial complexes together with POSCO were included in particulate matters and sulfur dioxide influenced areas in Pohang Steel Complex area, and that Haedo-dong, Sangdae-dong, Jecheol-dong and Jangheung-dong in Pohangnam-gu represented locally worsened air quality due to a quantity of air pollutant emission from dense steel industries and large scale industrial facilities.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.583-615
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• 2014

Including the rolling black out in 2011, Korea has suffered from rapid increase of electricity consumption and demand forecasting failure for last five years. In addition, because of the Fukushima disaster, high fuel prices, and introduction of new generation sources such as renewables, the uncertainty on a power supply strategy increases. Consequently, a stable power supply becomes the new agenda and a revisino of strategy for new power generation sources is needed. In the light of this, we appraises the sixth basic plan for long term electricity demand and supply considering the changes of foreign and domestic conditions. We also simulate a strategy for the new power generation sources using a portfolio analysis method. As results, a diversity of power generation sources will increase and the share of renewable power generation will be surged on the assumptions of a cost reduction of renewable power sources and an increase of fuel costs. Particularly, on the range of a risk level(standard deviation) from 0.06 and 0.09, the efficient frontier has the most various power sources. Besides, the existing power plan is not efficient so that an improvement is needed. Lastly, the development of an electricity storage system and energy management system is necessary to make a stable and efficient power supply condition.